E100: Reflecting on the first 100 shows, fan questions, nuclear threat, markets, Amazon & more

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00:00:00
Speaker 1
Did you get your interest?
00:00:01
Speaker 2
Today, no, I don’t have time for.
00:00:02
Speaker 2
Interest. Oh, come on all.
00:00:04
Speaker 2
Right, fine.
00:00:05
Speaker 2
He started as.
00:00:05
Speaker 2
An herbal followers on Twitter.
00:00:07
Speaker 2
Now he’s a nerd that gets recognized when leaving the shooter.
00:00:10
Speaker 2
He turned water into wine.
00:00:11
Speaker 2
He just wants to please us.
00:00:13
Speaker 2
Now he’s a mixture of Kermit the frog and a science nerd.
00:00:16
Speaker 2
He’s the man with the fancy cleaners can run the filter of signs.
00:00:20
Speaker 3
Prince of Prozac.
00:00:21
Speaker 2
The Lord of Lexapro.
00:00:22
Speaker 2
He gets stops for selfies all over town.
00:00:25
Speaker 2
My producer fee gave him the mental breakdown.
00:00:28
Speaker 2
The Sultan of.
00:00:29
Speaker 2
Zoloft, Mr Dan frieberg.
00:00:29
Speaker 4
So true.
00:00:31
Speaker 1
Please give me a break.
00:00:32
Speaker 2
So you’re over it now you.
00:00:34
Speaker 2
Just name dropped three SSR eyes that enjoy incredible.
00:00:37
Speaker 2
Well, I talked to his.
00:00:38
Speaker 2
I talked to in psychiatrist.
00:00:39
Speaker 2
He said he’s working on the.
00:00:41
Speaker 5
Save some for me.
00:00:44
Speaker 2
Oh, you’re Speaking of you.
00:00:46
Speaker 2
He’s got very quick wit and impeccable grammar known for building beautiful products that don’t.
00:00:51
Speaker 2
Work. Oh my God.
00:00:52
Speaker
Like calling in Yammer, he.
00:00:54
Speaker 1
Used to invest in.
00:00:55
Speaker 2
Now he’s fighting for games of Ukraine.
00:00:58
Speaker
He’s spending so much time in his.
00:01:00
Speaker 2
Bunker is starting to get smelly.
00:01:02
Speaker 2
We see him.
00:01:02
Speaker 2
Only three times a.
00:01:03
Speaker 2
Week all in Tucker and Megyn Kelly.
00:01:06
Speaker 2
He’d investing to start up if you had.
00:01:07
Speaker 2
The knack, but right.
00:01:09
Speaker 2
Now he needs that cash for his GOP super PAC, the world biggest Passover Rain Man himself, Mr.
00:01:15
Speaker 6
That’s facile.
00:01:18
Speaker 5
That’s, that’s a repeat.
00:01:19
Speaker 5
Yeah, that’s not.
00:01:20
Speaker 2
I know, but he kills every time.
00:01:21
Speaker 5
I’m gonna keep repeating.
00:01:22
Speaker 2
Until you stop.
00:01:23
Speaker 2
Laughing to his wardrobe cost so much he can’t get into a scuffle.
00:01:27
Speaker 2
He brought all his friends with his wife, shuffles.
00:01:30
Speaker 2
He killed Facebook to ability.
00:01:32
Speaker 2
That wine collection is still talking silly.
00:01:34
Speaker 2
He’s on the World Tour meeting of Princess and Kim.
00:01:37
Speaker 2
Even talking luxury sweaters or Mindy.
00:01:39
Speaker 2
Bigger things.
00:01:40
Speaker 2
Magic chair himself, chamath.
00:01:42
Speaker 2
Paulie hoppity.
00:01:43
Speaker 2
That was really nice actually.
00:01:45
Speaker 2
I mean, I appreciate you.
00:01:46
Speaker 1
You’re obviously trying to.
00:01:47
Speaker 2
Get invited to dinner.
00:01:48
Speaker 2
Tonight I’m trying to get off the alternate.
00:01:50
Speaker 2
Unless he’s trying to get off the alternate.
00:01:52
Speaker 2
In fact, the e-mail was harsh.
00:01:54
Speaker 2
Nine was alternate.
00:01:57
Speaker
I know.
00:01:57
Speaker
I see.
00:01:57
Speaker 2
Have a seat.
00:01:58
Speaker 2
As for me, I’m the world’s greatest moderator who can take a note. Compared to these guys, I’m just a millionaire who’s broke the all in submit almost killed us.
00:02:05
Speaker 2
But we came back from Death Store. I knew he peaked when Freeburg took over the dance floor. We love the fans, but we love each other more. Thanks for the 1st 100, fellows. Here’s 200 more really good.
00:02:17
Speaker 2
Oh, that’s really, really good.
00:02:19
Speaker 2
Look at you touching indoors.
00:02:20
Speaker 6
Surprisingly routine prepared today.
00:02:30
Speaker 2
Prepare your job.
00:02:33
Speaker 5
Your job.
00:02:34
Speaker 5
Do your job.
00:02:34
Speaker 3
Do your job.
00:02:35
Speaker 5
Do your unremunerated job.
00:02:38
Speaker 2
Here job.
00:02:38
Speaker 1
Speaking of Unremunerated, we heard that somebody.
00:02:39
Speaker 4
During Christmas.
00:02:41
Speaker 3
Ripping off the pod.
00:02:43
Speaker 3
Oh yeah, so good.
00:02:44
Speaker 2
Point what we heard.
00:02:45
Speaker 2
Said is that you got a big.
00:02:47
Speaker 2
Care package for Montclair.
00:02:49
Speaker 1
Yeah, that’s true.
00:02:51
Speaker 2
What I think we’re.
00:02:52
Speaker 2
All going to declare today is that we.
00:02:54
Speaker
All want to.
00:02:54
Speaker 2
Wet our beak.
00:02:55
Speaker 2
And if Montclair sends each of us the care package?
00:02:58
Speaker 2
We will all wear Montclair gear.
00:03:00
Speaker 2
At episode 101.
00:03:01
Speaker 5
Like there’s my brand.
00:03:02
Speaker 5
Building your own brand.
00:03:03
Speaker 1
Yeah, yeah, we just signed.
00:03:06
Speaker 5
Laura Piano, I got Montclair.
00:03:08
Speaker 5
You go get like, you know, Izod or something.
00:03:16
Speaker 1
I hope unified I got you.
00:03:18
Speaker 2
We got gap kids for J.
00:03:21
Speaker 2
In fact, you.
00:03:21
Speaker 2
Know that you didn’t declare your Montclair get package, by the way, that that was the discovery we made.
00:03:23
Speaker 5
No, I did.
00:03:25
Speaker 1
This weekend, so I.
00:03:26
Speaker 6
Want to thank.
00:03:27
Speaker 6
I want to thank.
00:03:28
Speaker 5
The folks that there’s a company called.
00:03:32
Speaker 5
And they sent me this.
00:03:34
Speaker 5
GIF actually this pretty this monster hoodie which I’ve never seen before.
00:03:36
Speaker 2
So what is this problem? It sends you a hoodie for $1200.
00:03:41
Speaker 1
50,000 headshot.
00:03:42
Speaker 2
The market was.
00:03:43
Speaker 6
There were several other things that I’ll bring.
00:03:44
Speaker 5
You guys each shirt from Montclair.
00:03:47
Speaker 2
Second, getting hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue.
00:03:48
Speaker 6
Right.
00:03:53
Speaker 4
We just.
00:03:55
Speaker 2
How did you put this money?
00:03:59
Speaker 2
Onto like eBay if you got.
00:04:01
Speaker 1
It I was.
00:04:02
Speaker 5
Already wearing and they sent me more so I mean.
00:04:04
Speaker 6
I wear this hoodie is pretty cool.
00:04:06
Speaker 5
What can I say I’m.
00:04:06
Speaker 2
Looking at three cents and all of a sudden you’re gripping.
00:04:13
Speaker 2
Can you just send my package?
00:04:15
Speaker 2
Let me tell you something.
00:04:16
Speaker 2
There’s no upgrade that’s going to help.
00:04:19
Speaker 5
Now I’m going to bring you guys monster shirts.
00:04:21
Speaker 5
To the poker game tonight.
00:04:22
Speaker 3
He’s freaking about.
00:04:24
Speaker 2
How did how did you guys even find out?
00:04:26
Speaker 1
That he got this gift.
00:04:27
Speaker 2
Where this blue wing party?
00:04:29
Speaker 2
Had the Blue Angels party.
00:04:31
Speaker 2
There’s someone there.
00:04:33
Speaker 2
Who started telling me like, did you hear this?
00:04:36
Speaker 2
After this whole.
00:04:37
Speaker 2
Oh, so there’s a, there’s a.
00:04:42
Speaker 2
We were talking about the podcast.
00:04:45
Speaker 2
100% of the Blue Way, 100%.
00:04:48
Speaker 1
No, it wasn’t.
00:04:49
Speaker 2
100%.
00:04:50
Speaker 2
Is Jeff?
00:04:51
Speaker 5
So one of my one of my friends was in the man cave and he saw this like care package from Montclair.
00:04:56
Speaker 6
And he really?
00:04:57
Speaker 5
Admired this like jacket.
00:04:59
Speaker 5
It was like a puffer jacket but.
00:05:00
Speaker 5
That’s like wolf leaves or.
00:05:02
Speaker 2
Something get him.
00:05:03
Speaker 5
And I gave it to him he would like.
00:05:06
Speaker 5
I’m right here, you take it.
00:05:09
Speaker 2
The pop guy gave it to producer Nick.
00:05:11
Speaker 5
So he was walking around with it, he.
00:05:12
Speaker 5
Was really appreciative.
00:05:14
Speaker 5
So maybe he said something or well.
00:05:17
Speaker 2
The grill is.
00:05:18
Speaker 2
Let’s just say there is a lot of conversations going on about your care package stuff.
00:05:22
Speaker 2
Well then it makes us wonder, Sacks, are there other care packages that have come in and like, have you been promoting other stuff?
00:05:29
Speaker 2
Out here, say who makes the.
00:05:30
Speaker 5
Cabin behind for magazines that you wouldn’t want.
00:05:32
Speaker 1
So how much of your little?
00:05:32
Speaker 5
To read about it.
00:05:33
Speaker 2
Piano had you actually paid?
00:05:35
Speaker 5
For over the past year.
00:05:38
Speaker 2
I would never, I would never accept it.
00:05:41
Speaker 2
Second, all joking aside.
00:05:46
Speaker 2
It’s hard if you’re running a clothing business, especially for like a small niche provider stuff.
00:05:51
Speaker 2
So yeah, you have a responsibility to pay for this stuff, not to grift and get it for free. And I, when I was at the lower piano store on 57th St, Manhattan, the 18,000 square foot store, I was thinking the same thing. These poor people, how do they survive?
00:06:05
Speaker 2
$270 square foot, red Maple.
00:06:09
Speaker 2
Now I would take.
00:06:09
Speaker 2
About providers Greenberg exploding poor baby goats.
00:06:14
Speaker 2
But whatever, I mean, the fact is the markets down, there’s going to be a little grifting on the margins.
00:06:18
Speaker 2
It’s understandable.
00:06:20
Speaker 5
Letterwinners live.
00:06:23
Speaker 4
Rain Man.
00:06:28
Speaker 6
We open forces to the fast.
00:06:30
Speaker 5
And they discovered.
00:06:35
Speaker 2
Freeburg he loves to produce every 17th episode and a great job.
00:06:40
Speaker 6
Oh no.
00:06:40
Speaker 2
OK.
00:06:40
Speaker 6
I want to prepare or.
00:06:41
Speaker 2
At least know what the heck.
00:06:42
Speaker 2
We’re going to talk about.
00:06:43
Speaker 2
When we get.
00:06:43
Speaker 2
And nursing prompts he got these are daughter-in-law.
00:06:45
Speaker 3
Arcade produce.
00:06:46
Speaker 2
Doing his job? Yeah. Sorry.
00:06:50
Speaker 1
All right. So First off.
00:06:51
Speaker 2
On Freeburg curiousness, this is.
00:06:55
Speaker 2
Free bird.
00:06:56
Speaker 1
How you gonna do it?
00:06:57
Speaker 1
Get the hat for the.
00:06:57
Speaker 4
OK.
00:06:57
Speaker 2
Next section.
00:06:58
Speaker 2
Come on.
00:06:59
Speaker 2
OK, so go, go, go.
00:07:01
Speaker 2
Why do you think people?
00:07:03
Speaker 2
Love the podcast while you’ve been doing this and.
00:07:05
Speaker 2
Why do you?
00:07:05
Speaker 2
Think they love it?
00:07:07
Speaker 2
What is the phenomenon? What?
00:07:09
Speaker 2
Lightning has been captured in.
00:07:10
Speaker 2
These files first is I think that they appreciated our friendship.
00:07:14
Speaker 2
It’s kind of like pod and quirky.
00:07:17
Speaker 2
And I think a lot of, you know, it maps to like relationships that they have amongst.
00:07:23
Speaker 6
Their own friends.
00:07:24
Speaker 2
So that’s what.
00:07:24
Speaker 2
Makes it relatable.
00:07:26
Speaker 2
But the second is that all of us uniquely have a point of view.
00:07:31
Speaker 2
About stuff that matters.
00:07:32
Speaker 2
More and more in the world, I think that’s.
00:07:35
Speaker 2
Just the basics.
00:07:36
Speaker 2
Of it like it’s not like technology is going away.
00:07:39
Speaker 2
And it’s not like it’s impacting.
00:07:40
Speaker 2
The world is going away.
00:07:42
Speaker 2
And the more it becomes mainstream, the most important part a lot of folks to understand what’s happening.
00:07:47
Speaker 2
And I think we provide a pretty unfiltered.
00:07:50
Speaker 2
View of it and.
00:07:51
Speaker 2
And we do it where?
00:07:53
Speaker 2
And this is a lot of credit.
00:07:54
Speaker 2
To tax.
00:07:55
Speaker 2
More than anyone else on this.
00:07:57
Speaker 2
Show has said.
00:07:58
Speaker 2
Take a counterpoint and Steelman, but would otherwise be controversial views.
00:08:03
Speaker 2
And if he didn’t have his three friends around them, that would make the pod meaningfully burst, I think.
00:08:08
Speaker 3
You look like.
00:08:08
Speaker 2
You’re not ready for people who don’t.
00:08:10
Speaker 2
Know what steel Manning is, what that means?
00:08:12
Speaker 2
Well, just it just means like to.
00:08:13
Speaker 2
Eat, have intellectual honesty around a point of view, and actually put your best foot forward and trying to explain it, even when it’s not orthodox, even when it’s not what the main screen would say is right.
00:08:24
Speaker 2
And So what it actually does is it creates a contrast against every other alternative that you have to learn about things which you find incrementally is biased.
00:08:36
Speaker 2
And I think that’s what we’ve gotten.
00:08:37
Speaker 2
Right, we are four friends.
00:08:39
Speaker 2
That have a reasonable point of view, rooted in some amount of success and I think that that’s important because it gives us credibility.
00:08:45
Speaker 2
And we take all sides of issues, yeah.
00:08:48
Speaker 2
And oftentimes it is not the obvious simple reductive answer.
00:08:55
Speaker 2
And I think that that’s where it really shines.
00:08:58
Speaker 2
People know about the Steelman arguments, I’m sure people covered.
00:08:58
Speaker 1
Right.
00:09:01
Speaker 2
I think most people refer to it as.
00:09:03
Speaker 2
The act of.
00:09:04
Speaker 2
Presenting the other arguments in the strongest way possible to the intellectual illness, but got stronger.
00:09:09
Speaker 5
The authors exactly.
00:09:10
Speaker 5
Also stronger ’cause the way the way the debate happens on Twitter and so forth is it’s almost like the intellectual debate is.
00:09:19
Speaker 5
Being attacked using opposition research tactics like there were political campaigns.
00:09:24
Speaker 5
In other words, they go back through anything you might have.
00:09:26
Speaker 5
Said or written?
00:09:27
Speaker 5
Take the the thing that was most wrong, or at least justifiable, or the thing they can even just take out of context.
00:09:34
Speaker 5
And then they’ll try to make it about that, as opposed to the argument you’re actually making.
00:09:39
Speaker 5
And we just see this tactic over and over again, and it’s not an intellectually rigorous way of having a debate about.
00:09:47
Speaker 2
So you don’t learn anything, right?
00:09:49
Speaker 2
And deep down inside you know that it’s contrived and that is the in a nutshell.
00:09:53
Speaker 2
So it does it almost in many ways has less to do with how good we are.
00:09:58
Speaker 2
But frankly, how bad all the alternatives are.
00:10:01
Speaker 2
So even if you wanted to learn about tap.
00:10:03
Speaker 2
And you go.
00:10:04
Speaker 2
Up and you sign up for these.
00:10:07
Speaker 2
Or if you look at some of the tech sites, they’re really terrible and they have done an increasingly terrible job over the last five years in telling.
00:10:17
Speaker 2
The most important things, the truth and everything in between.
00:10:21
Speaker 2
And so if you can find a source.
00:10:24
Speaker 2
For an hour a week that is trying to tell you how basically the world is going to come together in a really integrated, multi faceted way.
00:10:35
Speaker 2
It’s not like we’re right.
00:10:37
Speaker
And it’s not.
00:10:38
Speaker 2
Like we know better than other people.
00:10:39
Speaker 2
In fact, many times a lot of the criticism I get, it’s how dare you talk about X.
00:10:43
Speaker 2
Or how dare you talk about why?
00:10:45
Speaker 2
Because it makes people who are experts in that field, you know, feel like, how dare you come into my realm and even have an opinion on, you know, what Russian politics look like in the 1980s? And those things really annoy these folks because they feel that those opinions in that knowledge.
00:11:01
Speaker 2
Should be cordoned off and held tightly as.
00:11:03
Speaker 1
It’s secrets that only they are.
00:11:05
Speaker 2
Allowed to talk about into.
00:11:06
Speaker 2
The world, and this is the place where with the Internet.
00:11:10
Speaker 2
All this knowledge is accessible, so the value of that knowledge, in my opinion, is the linked it’s ever been.
00:11:16
Speaker 2
It’s interpretation less valuable, and it’s the ability to actually, like, think narratively around how all these things connect.
00:11:23
Speaker 2
And this is where I give a lot of credit.
00:11:25
Speaker 2
I think you.
00:11:25
Speaker 2
Guys do an incredible job.
00:11:26
Speaker 2
I think the way free book thinks is super unique.
00:11:29
Speaker 2
I think the way there.
00:11:30
Speaker 2
Fast, distinct is unique.
00:11:31
Speaker 2
I think you’re now you’re urged to basically fight back is very special.
00:11:35
Speaker 2
All of it together.
00:11:37
Speaker 2
Is a really?
00:11:38
Speaker 2
Unique recipe it works and what I.
00:11:39
Speaker 2
Will tell you consistently.
00:11:41
Speaker 2
Is the number of people that listen to this.
00:11:46
Speaker 2
Of import and influence.
00:11:48
Speaker 2
I am constantly shocked.
00:11:50
Speaker 2
And if you are not true, did you need to get out of this stupid little echo chambers?
00:11:54
Speaker 2
Silicon Valley?
00:11:55
Speaker 2
Go to New York?
00:11:56
Speaker 2
Go around the world?
00:11:57
Speaker 2
And if you’re in the right meetings, it’s incredible how folks are getting educated using this part and I think that’s that’s.
00:12:02
Speaker 2
Really amazing.
00:12:03
Speaker 4
Pretty good.
00:12:03
Speaker 2
I I I think there’s like been a tendency.
00:12:07
Speaker 2
And like what we call media today, historically kind of, you know, communication amongst humans, it was very slow for a communication cycle to go from beginning to end to close because we had prints and books and then telegraphs and telephones and in television and radio and the.
00:12:26
Speaker 2
Internet, I think.
00:12:27
Speaker 2
Had really changed the cycle, the loop cycle, to the point that, you know, a story iterates and proliferates very quickly.
00:12:36
Speaker 2
So a lot of people talk about the news cycle being very short nowadays and what that means.
00:12:41
Speaker 2
Is that there is a group sync approach to resolving to a point of years on what the news is.
00:12:48
Speaker 2
So the news comes out, everyone iterates on it, they form their point of view, and all of a sudden everyone on the same point of view.
00:12:54
Speaker 2
And so there is no room for dissent, for debate or discussion, because the cycle closes so.
00:12:59
Speaker 2
Quickly, and everyone coalesces.
00:13:00
Speaker 2
Around the same point of year.
00:13:02
Speaker 2
And nowadays I think we see, not.
00:13:04
Speaker 2
Just that unipolar.
00:13:06
Speaker 2
Behavior, but we see this bipolar behavior.
00:13:08
Speaker 2
Where everyone coalescers on their point of view.
00:13:11
Speaker 2
And how their point?
00:13:12
Speaker 2
Of view is is the opposite of the other side.
00:13:16
Speaker 1
And everyone has.
00:13:16
Speaker 2
Their own heuristic for what the other side is there’s this populism versus elitism signing.
00:13:21
Speaker 2
There’s this red versus.
00:13:24
Speaker 2
There’s this US versus them fighting US versus China, citing everything is now bipolar until you very quickly coalesce around what your poll says and what your poll is instructing you to believe.
00:13:37
Speaker 2
And that is what is fundamentally wrong with how the system is working today and I think, where people find refreshing about a discourse.
00:13:45
Speaker 2
That doesn’t succumb to that bipolarity.
00:13:49
Speaker 2
As a standard.
00:13:51
Speaker 2
Is that it provides people the ability to have a real, rational, out of sync point of view that maybe changes one point of view and changes once my arms in a meaningful way.
00:14:00
Speaker 2
And I think that’s what’s really missing today.
00:14:01
Speaker 6
And I think maybe.
00:14:03
Speaker 2
Sometimes we do a good job and.
00:14:04
Speaker 2
We touch on.
00:14:05
Speaker 2
That, and so that’s what I would strive to do, is to always try and avoid that bipolarity.
00:14:09
Speaker 2
On everything you know the.
00:14:12
Speaker 2
Zen Buddhist scholars, touristic thinking.
00:14:14
Speaker 2
You know, the human brain and generally the universe seems to evolve into this kind of dualism and everything.
00:14:21
Speaker 2
And it’s not.
00:14:22
Speaker 2
Really always the case that there are shades of Gray, that there is nuanced, that there is a complex dimensionality to things.
00:14:29
Speaker 2
That I guess people really if.
00:14:31
Speaker 2
They take the time to understand, recognize that maybe it’s not less than right, maybe it’s not elite and populism.
00:14:36
Speaker 2
Maybe it’s not all black and white and that’s in it.
00:14:38
Speaker 2
Important, hopefully greatly, that maybe we can bring, bring, bring to light through our diagnosis of what’s going on in things right now.
00:14:46
Speaker 1
Yeah, I I’d.
00:14:47
Speaker 2
Like to answer that.
00:14:47
Speaker 2
I think there’s there’s a ton of great journalism going out there.
00:14:50
Speaker 2
We see it.
00:14:50
Speaker 2
There’s a ton of great substacks out there.
00:14:52
Speaker 2
People go deep.
00:14:52
Speaker 2
There’s other great podcasts out there, and right now it’s a tumultuous time for media journalism.
00:14:58
Speaker 2
And in getting information and do what trusted sources do we actually trust who actually is thinking in a crisp way and informing people and?
00:15:08
Speaker 2
And you’re having been a former journalist. When we were journalists, we knew that we would get 1020 thirty 40% of a story, we would publish it and we would try our best. The journalism is hard to change dramatically.
00:15:20
Speaker 2
In the last 20 years and I can tell.
00:15:22
Speaker 3
Until do.
00:15:23
Speaker 2
You a little bit bad.
00:15:24
Speaker 2
OK, I’m.
00:15:25
Speaker 2
With this.
00:15:25
Speaker
Sorry, I’m sorry.
00:15:26
Speaker 2
I’m great sharing with McLane.
00:15:27
Speaker 2
It’s on the margins.
00:15:28
Speaker 2
It, it’s irrelevant.
00:15:30
Speaker 2
And I’ll tell you why, because the facts are known instantaneously on Twitter and through the Internet.
00:15:34
Speaker 2
We don’t need people to relate facts.
00:15:36
Speaker 2
We need people to wrap facts in context and allow us to come to our own conclusions.
00:15:41
Speaker 2
That’s why I think journalism isn’t what it used to be.
00:15:43
Speaker 2
That’s why people who are historically journalists.
00:15:46
Speaker 2
Struggle, because now they actually have to create context and narrative and have an opinion.
00:15:51
Speaker 2
But when you publish that into the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times, it becomes very confusing.
00:15:56
Speaker 2
They don’t know that that’s what they were supposed to do.
00:15:58
Speaker 2
That’s not what they used to do.
00:15:59
Speaker 2
That’s not how pure surprises were were historically given out.
00:16:03
Speaker 2
And that’s why everybody then, you know, rants and raves.
00:16:05
Speaker 2
About things kind of going in.
00:16:07
Speaker 2
You know if you if you look at it.
00:16:09
Speaker 2
As journalists, people don’t notice that journalists are being compensated.
00:16:13
Speaker 2
Liberal salaries in many cases are based on their follower counts or based on what audience they’re bringing to the table, and you see this in substacks, Substacks said.
00:16:21
Speaker 2
We’re going to hire the top.
00:16:22
Speaker 2
Journalists aren’t who have the most followers on Twitter, but just change the words so that you changed how people think about it.
00:16:28
Speaker 2
These people are not journalists.
00:16:29
Speaker 2
Think people are opinion makers.
00:16:31
Speaker 2
OK?
00:16:31
Speaker 2
In some cases they’re doing journalism.
00:16:33
Speaker 2
In some cases are.
00:16:34
Speaker 2
Saying no, no.
00:16:34
Speaker 2
There are some cases where they’re actually doing real journalism shot.
00:16:37
Speaker 2
There are people doing investigative reporting.
00:16:38
Speaker 2
So it’s not the majority of what you see, but they still exist.
00:16:42
Speaker 2
It’s just a very.
00:16:43
Speaker 2
Much more percent.
00:16:44
Speaker 2
But putting that aside, if you think about the wrapper virtuous blanket around every 1000 people because of the acts of 1.
00:16:46
Speaker 1
You can’t.
00:16:52
Speaker 2
I’m not and I’m not I.
00:16:54
Speaker 2
Said there’s a range here.
00:16:55
Speaker 2
It’s a small percentage, but this will work.
00:16:58
Speaker 2
Right.
00:16:58
Speaker 2
What do you think that?
00:16:59
Speaker 2
Percentage of content creation of three or 5%, so, you know, one out of 20, yeah.
00:17:04
Speaker 2
Yeah, I think it’s less than 1%, but let me just finish this one right here. You know, if you are going to be hired and compensated and we talk about systems here a lot.
00:17:15
Speaker 2
So just bring you from first.
00:17:16
Speaker 2
Principles if you’re a journalist.
00:17:17
Speaker 2
You write opinion right or whatever you produce content.
00:17:20
Speaker 2
For Wall Street Journal, for podcast, et cetera.
00:17:22
Speaker 2
Today, let us think in your follower count is what your book advances.
00:17:28
Speaker 2
It’s what your compensation is.
00:17:30
Speaker 2
It’s who hires you now.
00:17:32
Speaker 2
Just that’s the truth.
00:17:33
Speaker 2
And it’s it’s not all.
00:17:34
Speaker 2
The time, but I think the guard at that point at that your job is not.
00:17:37
Speaker 2
To relate facts.
00:17:38
Speaker 2
We can get feedback now, that’s what.
00:17:39
Speaker
I’m sorry.
00:17:40
Speaker 2
Let me finish my book here.
00:17:41
Speaker 2
And so then what happens is how is power account?
00:17:43
Speaker 2
On Twitter actually derived how do you get that Falcon?
00:17:47
Speaker 2
By being tribal.
00:17:48
Speaker 2
And So what happened is George also became tribal.
00:17:51
Speaker 2
They get, they follow and say, give spicy takes.
00:17:53
Speaker 2
They pick a side and then their compensation follows it.
00:17:56
Speaker 2
And that’s why New York Times it can be all stopped on Twitter, made Middleton eat it.
00:18:00
Speaker 2
But then you look at this podcast.
00:18:02
Speaker 2
I think people look at us, as you know, in the mixture, podcasting, longform, taking the time week after week to spend 90 minutes chopping these things up.
00:18:11
Speaker 2
I think that’s what to the original question Freebirds you have is what people find so great.
00:18:15
Speaker 2
I I when people ask me, I say it’s really about the fact that there’s the friendships.
00:18:20
Speaker 2
Yeah, it’s funny, but it’s also informative and it’s insightful and at times, as you pointed out, showing off, you know, random acts of bravery and chasing positions that.
00:18:28
Speaker 2
Are not popular.
00:18:30
Speaker 2
And to think that you and Freeburg almost blew this up.
00:18:33
Speaker 2
Over a few 100K.
00:18:35
Speaker 1
I didn’t.
00:18:36
Speaker 2
Yeah, yeah.
00:18:44
Speaker
Can I try?
00:18:47
Speaker 2
More quickly.
00:18:52
Speaker 5
During the pot, just to chime in on this point, I mean, I think I’m in violent agreement with you guys, but I’d frame it a little differently.
00:18:58
Speaker 5
I think the reason why people seek out our podcasts and other podcasts and substance.
00:19:04
Speaker 5
That is, and sort of this kind of independent journalism that are willing to pay for it is because the mainstream media has become totally.
00:19:13
Speaker 5
Devoid of substance is as partisan and indie, old and ideologized as it’s ever been.
00:19:20
Speaker 5
Reporters are extremely ideological.
00:19:22
Speaker 5
You look at the New York Times, the Washington Post, the, you know, major television networks is all kind of.
00:19:27
Speaker 5
The same thing.
00:19:28
Speaker 5
And yeah, there is like, you know, a little bit of an echo chamber problem in terms of the partisan politics, but.
00:19:33
Speaker 5
The mainstream media.
00:19:34
Speaker 5
Is the most ideologized it’s ever been.
00:19:37
Speaker 5
I mean just to give you one small example that we talked on the pod.
00:19:41
Speaker 5
Then you know we had.
00:19:42
Speaker 5
Two quarters of negative GDP growth, which the media has always considered to be the definition of recession.
00:19:47
Speaker 5
And then all of a sudden they said, no, we can’t know what a recession is anymore because they know that the horrible headlines for Biden right before the midterm elections, that’s more of a partisan version.
00:19:55
Speaker 5
I think on the, you know, a more ideological version would be just around this Ukraine.
00:20:00
Speaker 5
Or, I mean, is this incredible how biased the coverage is?
00:20:04
Speaker 5
They don’t even present.
00:20:06
Speaker 5
The other side of the story like this called the Mearsheimer take about how we got to this point that we’re in.
00:20:12
Speaker 5
So the American people just aren’t being informed at all.
00:20:15
Speaker 5
I, you know, we we we’d love.
00:20:16
Speaker 5
To talk about how the people of all these other countries are being propagandized by their government.
00:20:21
Speaker 5
So we never talk about how propagandize the American people are.
00:20:24
Speaker 5
The media does not present.
00:20:25
Speaker 5
The other side of the story at all on how we got into the Ukraine war and how we’re now at the brink of what Biden calls Armageddon.
00:20:34
Speaker 2
Sunny Peter.
00:20:34
Speaker 3
So how we get out of it?
00:20:36
Speaker 3
How are we?
00:20:36
Speaker
Going to get out.
00:20:36
Speaker 2
Of it any topic by the way.
00:20:39
Speaker 2
I think I thought that was my point.
00:20:39
Speaker 2
Gets so many topics.
00:20:42
Speaker 2
That we seem.
00:20:44
Speaker 2
You know effectively short form and short form, meaning it can be presented in a sound bite from a tick, tock click, or in a couple of paragraphs where similar detention stand before someone is attention span lasts is out.
00:20:56
Speaker 2
Always misses the dimensionality that got up to that point.
00:21:00
Speaker 2
And so there’s one perspective, one point of view on one dimension and the dimension.
00:21:05
Speaker 2
What’s active talking about about the time and the history of the dynamics of all the countries and.
00:21:11
Speaker 2
All the people and all the.
00:21:12
Speaker 2
Interactions that have happened for the past couple of decades that led up to this moment.
00:21:17
Speaker 2
But then this moment is painted in its context alone and re classified as being something that is good versus evil.
00:21:24
Speaker 1
It completely misses.
00:21:26
Speaker 2
The entire storyline of what happened, it’s like it going to the end of a fairy tale and saying here’s this moment of what happened and all the build up and all the things that occurred are often missing and all the different sides of the story.
00:21:37
Speaker 2
Perfect.
00:21:37
Speaker 2
And I think that that’s really what makes it so difficult to daily to feel like you can trust authority and that you can trust the media that’s presented to you as a consumer, not just in the US or in the West, but around the world, because there’s so much just left out and manipulated and kept away. And what people are waking up to is the fact that.
00:21:57
Speaker 2
To Mark points out.
00:21:58
Speaker 2
With so much of that information, the direct information is avail.
00:22:02
Speaker 2
Mobile now.
00:22:03
Speaker 2
And so this investigation, this ability to uncover the data and the storylines and the perspectives that are typically missing from one form of media is making people realize that there’s so much that’s being left out, the lives movement.
00:22:16
Speaker 2
Percent, 100%. And I think in this context it’s really talking to people nowadays. And I think that’s what makes maybe to some degree.
00:22:23
Speaker 5
We called our.
00:22:24
Speaker 2
Office. A couple.
00:22:25
Speaker 2
More period.
00:22:25
Speaker 2
I’ll drop 2 on the 2nd, but I do see this happen in three specific topics that we discussed here.
00:22:32
Speaker 2
If you remember, we talked about abortion and we were on that topic very early and no one wanted to talk.
00:22:37
Speaker 2
I remember when we started talking about the number of weeks, maybe how Europe looks.
00:22:40
Speaker 2
This that wasn’t part of the popular conversation was always just argue against choice. Are you for killing babies? It was like a very two-dimensional look at it.
00:22:50
Speaker 2
Same thing.
00:22:51
Speaker 2
Nobody would talk about the numbers, nobody talked about recruitment, nobody talks about the point systems used in other countries.
00:22:56
Speaker 2
There was almost like those basic things were not allowed to be discussed.
00:23:01
Speaker 2
Why can’t the media discuss those nuances?
00:23:03
Speaker 2
And freedom of speech is adding the biggest one and the search for truth.
00:23:07
Speaker 2
You know, nobody wants to talk about the fact that the ACLU used to, actually.
00:23:12
Speaker 2
Protect unpopular speech.
00:23:14
Speaker 2
And unpopular speech is, you know, the hardest thing in the world to protect it.
00:23:17
Speaker 2
How did that become something we can’t even talk about now, right?
00:23:21
Speaker 2
And in just a snap silencing of any opinion, whether it’s the power or, you know, pick a topic in freedom of speech, trump, etc.
00:23:30
Speaker 2
You know who gets protection?
00:23:32
Speaker 2
We’re pretty sure we’ll talk about it on the news with Alex Jones.
00:23:35
Speaker 2
Obviously a very controversial topic as well.
00:23:37
Speaker 2
Great, thanks.
00:23:38
Speaker 2
You want to add something.
00:23:38
Speaker 5
Well, I think just to take this great situation as an example, I think the.
00:23:42
Speaker 5
His biggest power is the power to define when time begins on an issue.
00:23:48
Speaker 5
’cause my fears as well, like right with Ukraine, were part of an escalatory spiral that’s been going on for well more than eight or nine months. This issue been going on since 2008, even for over.
00:23:59
Speaker 1
The decking happy.
00:24:01
Speaker 5
So in other words, if you come in in like the 7th inning, OK, so it’s a previous play, you come in at the.
00:24:07
Speaker 5
End of this story, and it’s been an escalatory spiral.
00:24:10
Speaker 5
But the media just pretends like time begins on February 24th. Of course you’re going to have a certain kind of view on the subject.
00:24:17
Speaker 5
Whereas if you know the history of the situation, if you know that back in the 1990s you had people like George Kennan, who is the architect of our Cold War containment policy, you had William J. Period, Bill Clinton, fund secretary. You had heavy chest.
00:24:31
Speaker 5
Very good job near Sumerall warn that bring NATO right up to Russia front porch was extremely provocative to them, but they would see that as a provocation that would eventually lead to a moment of crisis when that moment or twice this climate change.
00:24:46
Speaker 5
Leader were not told that this was predicted.
00:24:49
Speaker 5
We’re told that anyone who says that this war has anything to do with NATO expansion, he is basically approving apologist and dispelling fruit and chocolate points.
00:24:57
Speaker 5
All right, let’s not, let’s not.
00:24:58
Speaker 2
Let’s say something after Ukraine talk we’re going to talk about in the news question.
00:25:00
Speaker 6
But like my parents, just sleep music.
00:25:01
Speaker 2
No, but I get your point script.
00:25:02
Speaker 1
You could agree or.
00:25:03
Speaker 5
Disagree with that too.
00:25:04
Speaker 5
But the point.
00:25:05
Speaker 5
Is the media doesn’t even portray it.
00:25:07
Speaker 2
They really just pick a side and they I think I like your analogy of like just coming in for the last 15 minutes of the game and just describing that.
00:25:14
Speaker 2
You know, we need to have a deeper discussion.
00:25:16
Speaker 2
How did we get here?
00:25:17
Speaker 2
How did we get here on immigration?
00:25:18
Speaker 2
Why don’t we have a point system?
00:25:19
Speaker 2
Why do we look at people suddenly coming from South of the border differently than we did just 20 years ago?
00:25:25
Speaker 2
How did that become a politicized issue?
00:25:26
Speaker 2
What’s the right solution?
00:25:27
Speaker 2
Here, especially if we can’t hire people for basic jobs in the United States, everybody wants to know this question.
00:25:35
Speaker 2
What’s your state?
00:25:35
Speaker 2
You have a favorite.
00:25:37
Speaker 2
Or a least favorite moment.
00:25:39
Speaker 2
A great moment in the show history.
00:25:41
Speaker 2
And then I guess we’ll move on, maybe to some audience questions here.
00:25:44
Speaker 2
But but let’s get this one ’cause an embarrassing moment.
00:25:47
Speaker 2
Your favorite moment.
00:25:48
Speaker 2
Your least favorite moment.
00:25:50
Speaker 2
A moment now you look back on and you’re particularly proud of.
00:25:53
Speaker 2
China I love the cold.
00:25:54
Speaker 2
Open side I think that they are unbelievably human.
00:25:57
Speaker 2
And funny and normalizing.
00:26:01
Speaker 2
They are by far the best part of the pod in my opinion.
00:26:09
Speaker 2
Yeah, so that’s my that’s my absolute favorite part by like, miles and miles.
00:26:14
Speaker 2
Sasha got a favorite moment other than Ukrainian, other than Ukraine.
00:26:19
Speaker 5
Bollywood, probably when he started talking like Joe Pesci.
00:26:19
Speaker 2
I know you’re not Ukraine.
00:26:20
Speaker 2
On the brain.
00:26:24
Speaker 5
Joe Pesci voice.
00:26:27
Speaker 1
Do it on command.
00:26:28
Speaker 1
I’m not your monkey.
00:26:30
Speaker 3
Don’t you talk to me like that.
00:26:31
Speaker 3
2nd funking fat idiot.
00:26:37
Speaker 2
Other shows you have any other favorite moments, more things you’re particularly proud of, things that people.
00:26:43
Speaker 2
Tell you, you know, hey, what do you?
00:26:45
Speaker 2
I love this part of the show.
00:26:46
Speaker 2
I’m also proud that we we.
00:26:47
Speaker 2
Were able to air our dirty.
00:26:49
Speaker 2
Laundry a little bit in.
00:26:50
Speaker 2
Public and still get over ourselves.
00:26:53
Speaker 2
And our own.
00:26:53
Speaker 2
Egos and we’re still here, so I think that takes a lot of.
00:26:56
Speaker 2
Courage and a little bit of.
00:26:57
Speaker 2
A little bit of maturity that’s that’s not in public visibility all the time.
00:27:03
Speaker 2
In the media, I like, I like that sentiment a lot.
00:27:04
Speaker 3
Right.
00:27:05
Speaker 2
I think there’s a lot of question.
00:27:07
Speaker 2
Yeah, they were uncomfortable about.
00:27:08
Speaker 2
It you know.
00:27:09
Speaker 2
I think there’s a lot of personal growth that’s going on here for everybody involved.
00:27:15
Speaker 2
Everybody had a favorite moment, although, you know.
00:27:18
Speaker 2
Do when you fight.
00:27:21
Speaker 2
It’s annoying.
00:27:25
Speaker 2
My headphones off and I like do some.
00:27:27
Speaker 2
It’s it really is just it.
00:27:28
Speaker 1
And that application.
00:27:29
Speaker 2
It really is just this political thing.
00:27:31
Speaker 2
But yeah, it does come up, you know?
00:27:32
Speaker 2
I don’t like the fact that moments I’ve been interrupted by you.
00:27:35
Speaker 2
That like that just happened 5 seconds ago.
00:27:37
Speaker 2
Like, you know, it wasn’t usually pretty tough.
00:27:42
Speaker 2
I don’t know.
00:27:43
Speaker 1
But I did enjoy I did.
00:27:44
Speaker 2
Enjoy meeting people at the summit who shared that this has been like a really important.
00:27:52
Speaker 2
Thing for them to listen.
00:27:53
Speaker 2
To I I think I I was at.
00:27:55
Speaker 2
A peak coffee in the city.
00:27:58
Speaker
And some guy.
00:27:59
Speaker 2
Came up to me just this was early after early meeting when we were doing the podcast and he was like listening to you guys has really helped me.
00:28:06
Speaker 2
Get through COVID.
00:28:07
Speaker 2
And he was like locked in his apartment, even have a lot of friends and.
00:28:10
Speaker 2
He didn’t have.
00:28:10
Speaker 2
A lot of people to talk with and just being able to hear through, you know, kind of a good conversation around Wednesday.
00:28:18
Speaker 2
And how COVID gonna.
00:28:21
Speaker 2
You know what’s gonna change in the city?
00:28:23
Speaker 2
And sharing our friendship really made a big difference for him.
00:28:26
Speaker 2
And it was actually really interesting that was off this show, but it made me realize that this show actually is impactful and helpful and made any part of the energy to keep going.
00:28:35
Speaker 2
Even though I’ve had preparations in the past, though, I.
00:28:38
Speaker
Don’t know, I.
00:28:39
Speaker 2
I like, I like those moments.
00:28:40
Speaker 2
A lot, to be honest.
00:28:42
Speaker 2
But there’s real value here.
00:28:44
Speaker 2
For people.
00:28:46
Speaker 2
I also I thought this summit was.
00:28:48
Speaker 2
A lot of fun.
00:28:49
Speaker 2
I mean, I.
00:28:49
Speaker 2
Guess like you know, it’s I think we’re steering towards ID go steering towards Sona 2023.
00:28:57
Speaker
A little bit.
00:28:58
Speaker 2
Second, you do it, you produce it, or you hire produced it.
00:29:09
Speaker 2
If you don’t need to make a producer.
00:29:11
Speaker 2
You can do it.
00:29:11
Speaker 2
You can.
00:29:11
Speaker 2
Take the producer for whatever this.
00:29:13
Speaker 2
Alright guys, I.
00:29:13
Speaker 2
Got a couple questions here from the audience.
00:29:16
Speaker 2
Did you guys see this list?
00:29:18
Speaker 2
Yeah, right.
00:29:20
Speaker 2
Well, you could do that.
00:29:20
Speaker 2
So here’s a question.
00:29:22
Speaker 2
We got it over e-mail from Mason and Mason said we know the reasons.
00:29:28
Speaker 2
The reason you guys started the.
00:29:30
Speaker 2
Pod what is the motivation?
00:29:31
Speaker 2
Of each best team to continue.
00:29:33
Speaker 2
Doing it every week.
00:29:36
Speaker 5
I ask myself.
00:29:36
Speaker 6
Out every week.
00:29:42
Speaker 5
Yeah, no, I mean seriously.
00:29:44
Speaker 5
I’m thinking about taking a break, not to don’t.
00:29:46
Speaker 5
Like doing it but it is time consuming.
00:29:48
Speaker 5
And I do want time to get back to doing some business writing.
00:29:51
Speaker 5
I was on a pretty good track to publish a book about fast before we start doing the pod.
00:29:57
Speaker 5
I had written a lot of business blogs and.
00:30:00
Speaker 2
Wait, wait. How many weeks?
00:30:01
Speaker 6
I don’t know.
00:30:02
Speaker 5
I’m thinking about it ’cause.
00:30:03
Speaker 2
Wait ten weeks?
00:30:04
Speaker 2
Were you thinking maybe?
00:30:05
Speaker 5
Like a month or something?
00:30:06
Speaker 5
Yeah, four weeks.
00:30:09
Speaker 5
Maybe. I don’t know.
00:30:10
Speaker 2
47 hours now. Right now, Brad Gerstner is like doing jumping jacks in his.
00:30:11
Speaker 5
I’ve got like a like.
00:30:15
Speaker 2
Backyard and put me in the game.
00:30:17
Speaker 5
Well, we could do that.
00:30:18
Speaker 5
I mean I’ve got like 5 half written business blogs in my hopper that I really.
00:30:22
Speaker 5
Want to finish?
00:30:23
Speaker 5
And so, I don’t know we should.
00:30:25
Speaker 2
Just take a lot of cognitive energy, is what you’re saying we take.
00:30:28
Speaker 2
A lot of those possible.
00:30:30
Speaker 5
I mean as you guys know that taking in a couple of hours, but then this keeping track of all the issues and then you know from comparing takes for this pod, I also transform those takes them to articles like for Newsweek or the American Conservative whatever.
00:30:41
Speaker 2
This is this is the car.
00:30:44
Speaker 5
So I’ve been publishing a lot then.
00:30:44
Speaker 2
And responding and responding.
00:30:46
Speaker 5
And then?
00:30:47
Speaker 5
Tweeting takes as I’m coming up with them.
00:30:51
Speaker 6
Which is I think.
00:30:52
Speaker 2
The the load for stocks because he is the most heterodox, he is the heaviest, and this is like poorly understood.
00:31:00
Speaker 2
It seems easy to basically be on the side of the current conventional wisdom, or to not have an opinion and to talk about things that are orthogonal.
00:31:07
Speaker 2
But David is consistently the one that waved into the middle of the ocean, and it is iconic.
00:31:12
Speaker 2
I can understand why you find that exhausting.
00:31:14
Speaker 2
No, no, it’s not that.
00:31:17
Speaker 2
He has to be more prepared than the rest of us.
00:31:19
Speaker 2
Yes, because he is more open to the attacks from.
00:31:21
Speaker 2
All of these nitwits.
00:31:24
Speaker 5
It’s good.
00:31:24
Speaker 2
He did.
00:31:24
Speaker 5
I mean, you know, on every day on Twitter, on.
00:31:25
Speaker 2
He just did.
00:31:26
Speaker 5
Being told on Neville Chamberlain or.
00:31:27
Speaker 2
Me, he said.
00:31:28
Speaker 2
Ginger things are like uninformed Nicholas.
00:31:29
Speaker 5
Blah blah blah.
00:31:31
Speaker 2
You know they’re the cancer, the cancer of people who comment on Twitter followings.
00:31:32
Speaker
They really are.
00:31:37
Speaker 2
They suffer from the worst kind of cancer, which is a lack of belief in themselves, and So what they do is they point to other people and try to convince yet more people to not believe in them.
00:31:47
Speaker 2
But that has nothing to do with anything.
00:31:49
Speaker 2
This misdirection from their core problem, which is they don’t believe in themselves and so you know David has to fight all of our stuff off, but he has to fight it off with logic which must be exhaust.
00:31:58
Speaker 2
You know, my approach is destined to turn off comments and to not start.
00:32:01
Speaker 2
This is the single biggest problem I think that social media is.
00:32:04
Speaker 2
It’s at this heightened point where it says virulent strain of a lack of belief in oneself that manifests in his hatred, that you direct anybody else that believe in themselves.
00:32:14
Speaker 2
Comma interesting day.
00:32:16
Speaker 5
And I would just add to that.
00:32:18
Speaker 5
You know, it’s not like I haven’t heard any of the arguments that they’re making.
00:32:24
Speaker 5
I guarantee you they have not heard the arguments I’m making, but they, but I’ve heard all the arguments they’re making.
00:32:29
Speaker 5
Percent. I’m totally familiar with 1938 Munich, Neville Chamberlain, all this kind of stuff. I just don’t think that is the correct understanding of what’s happening right now.
00:32:37
Speaker 5
I think the correct surgical malji is either 1914 with lower one and the blank check guarantee or is 1962 the Cuban missile Crisis the people are nervous by generally.
00:32:49
Speaker 5
Don’t understand that.
00:32:50
Speaker 5
They are just kind of part of this like.
00:32:51
Speaker 5
Twitter mob who’s?
00:32:53
Speaker 5
Buying into the current thing.
00:32:54
Speaker 5
Or whatever they’re told by the.
00:32:55
Speaker 5
Yeah, so it is a little bit exhausting.
00:32:58
Speaker 2
I think that that’s what.
00:32:59
Speaker 2
People don’t realize is you.
00:33:00
Speaker 2
Know when this thing got very popular?
00:33:03
Speaker 2
The two or three days after an episode comes out becomes your check, your e-mail, your DMS, and your replies become settled, especially again.
00:33:12
Speaker 2
I would encourage.
00:33:14
Speaker 2
You to keep doing this thing and just to.
00:33:15
Speaker 2
Turn off comments and don’t come back.
00:33:18
Speaker 2
It’s hard for the first few weeks and then.
00:33:20
Speaker 2
You realize 99% of people who comment have nothing important or useful or interesting to say like 0, like -, 0.
00:33:28
Speaker 2
And your project reports that there is.
00:33:29
Speaker 2
Like 99.99.
00:33:31
Speaker 2
9% of the.
00:33:31
Speaker 2
World that just reads your content.
00:33:33
Speaker 2
And couldn’t even care about their comments.
00:33:37
Speaker 2
Yeah, I would focus on you.
00:33:39
Speaker 6
Consuming is the point that yeah, yeah, I.
00:33:40
Speaker 2
And ignore and ignore all these other deletes quitters.
00:33:43
Speaker 6
I agree that.
00:33:43
Speaker 5
Would make it less exhausting, but it would still be time consuming.
00:33:46
Speaker 5
United there is a bunch of business blocks.
00:33:47
Speaker 5
And want to.
00:33:47
Speaker 5
Get done so and they said you take 2 weeks.
00:33:50
Speaker 2
Off you come back.
00:33:51
Speaker 2
And see how we feel, right?
00:33:52
Speaker 2
I mean, you can do it week by week too.
00:33:52
Speaker 4
Right.
00:33:54
Speaker 2
I mean, just take one week off.
00:33:57
Speaker 2
Second question.
00:34:04
Speaker 2
Thank you for your participation, Nathan. Next question, I actually like this one to pull it out. It’s a e-mail question from 1T Hermanson.
00:34:13
Speaker 2
Ron said.
00:34:13
Speaker 2
Bill Gurley recently put out a piece explaining how this might be a bit of time, as in a decade to build a company.
00:34:20
Speaker 2
How are you?
00:34:20
Speaker 2
Guys seeing your own.
00:34:21
Speaker 2
Portfolio company project Advantage in this.
00:34:23
Speaker 2
Situation and I guess I’ll add you as a green.
00:34:26
Speaker 2
How do you think about this as a moment for company building here?
00:34:30
Speaker 2
I could take that one.
00:34:31
Speaker 2
I am seeing a lot of the companies that where you had done a great job raising around C.
00:34:37
Speaker 2
Round, says. Oh.
00:34:38
Speaker 2
Never got product market fit.
00:34:40
Speaker 2
Now wrap it up right.
00:34:41
Speaker 2
They’re shutting down, they’re doing the wind down process and then we’re seeing.
00:34:46
Speaker 2
List the very talented people and I’ve talked about stuff on the show.
00:34:49
Speaker 2
The consolidation of talent behind the winning ideas, the experiments that actually worked, products that got some traction are now having an easier time hiring talent.
00:34:59
Speaker 2
And so to Bill’s point, he’s got a lot more screens than this when the four of us put together is absolutely right.
00:35:04
Speaker 2
When you build in this down market.
00:35:06
Speaker 2
Yes, harder to raise.
00:35:07
Speaker 2
Money, of course.
00:35:08
Speaker 2
But talent is what makes great product and products that delight customers.
00:35:13
Speaker 2
Get the flywheel going, and if you survive through this and you have that talent, you’re not going to.
00:35:19
Speaker 2
There’s 20 copycats and there’s not 50 new products coming out today and people have more time to actually engage and try a product which they’ve been burnt out on.
00:35:29
Speaker 2
And the peanut butter spreading, you know, would have been layer.
00:35:32
Speaker 2
Of peanut butter.
00:35:32
Speaker 2
Town and now it’s getting consolidated in the.
00:35:35
Speaker 2
So absolutely a great time for five CEOs within founders or you know, 10 founders across five companies to consolidate down to two.
00:35:43
Speaker 2
Do those tuck in acquisitions and get focused and build really good teams and cut the weakest people on the team?
00:35:49
Speaker 2
There’s a lot of weak talent that have been overpaid and aren’t actually contributing to these teams and they need to get caught and then you.
00:35:55
Speaker 2
Currently offers it’s a fantastic time for some reason.
00:35:58
Speaker 2
All of the if you look back in history since 2000, all of the best performing funds of all times were the ones that were formed right in the middle of the downturns.
00:36:07
Speaker 2
030809 pieces of vintages that have always been the best, and what that means it’s a proxy for investing, which is it’s the hardest time right now. It’s when you have the tastiest hand when you’re writing the check.
00:36:18
Speaker 2
But it’ll probably be where all of the real money is made, or the real generational wealth build for the entrepreneurs who have the courage to start handing investors Club the courage to invest.
00:36:30
Speaker 2
There was a.
00:36:31
Speaker 2
Story that I heard in New York.
00:36:33
Speaker 2
I was talking to a really.
00:36:34
Speaker 2
Well known hedge fund.
00:36:36
Speaker 2
More family office.
00:36:38
Speaker 2
And they were talking about how they were meeting with a CEO of Fintech Unicorn, very well known Fintech Unicorn.
00:36:46
Speaker 2
And they said they left the meeting and they said this person had an unbelievable disrespect for money and it was the most arrogant interaction that they had ever heard.
00:36:56
Speaker 2
And they said under no circumstances would we invest in the sky, in this company at any price.
00:37:01
Speaker 2
And you know, lo and behold, a year later, that company is now visibly going through a bunch of hiccups.
00:37:06
Speaker 2
And it just reminds me that, Jason, we’ve always had two problems when times are good.
00:37:14
Speaker 2
Problem number one is that there’s never been a check in balance on that kind of behavior, a lack of respect for capital.
00:37:20
Speaker 2
And it’s almost a disregard for business models, which is just inexcusable and I.
00:37:25
Speaker 2
Think it’s partly the fault.
00:37:28
Speaker 2
A very young entrepreneur, but it’s also partly the fault of a board who doesn’t know how.
00:37:31
Speaker 2
To direct that person enablements Israel.
00:37:33
Speaker 2
Yeah, but then the second, the second thing is the holy passes.
00:37:37
Speaker 2
You know, this big tech put on the table where every time you would try.
00:37:41
Speaker 2
To really hone.
00:37:43
Speaker 2
In on running.
00:37:43
Speaker 2
A leaning, highly efficient organization.
00:37:46
Speaker 2
The alternative would be to go work.
00:37:48
Speaker 2
You know, Google, Facebook, apple.
00:37:50
Speaker 2
Amazon, Microsoft, where the terms are just complete.
00:37:53
Speaker 2
Different to what the experience was, you know, at a startup.
00:37:57
Speaker 2
And the bigger the gap, the harder it was.
00:37:59
Speaker 2
For you to.
00:38:00
Speaker 2
Be able to hire and retain good people without just copying them.
00:38:04
Speaker 2
And now that that’s also coming off the table, that is a key moment. So barely is 100% right. There is no longer the big tech, but those are the generals that are about to get.
00:38:13
Speaker 2
Costs over the next 8 to 12 months in my opinion, in the public markets in terms of market path and employment and perks.
00:38:20
Speaker 2
And then second is that these really thoughtful investors who felt pretty deeply disrespected will now be able to call the shop.
00:38:30
Speaker 2
And these founders will have to come back, hat in hand, and either apologize or just completely find a different religion.
00:38:36
Speaker 2
And I think in that you’ll have a lot of amazing opportunities to build companies.
00:38:41
Speaker 2
As well as taxation, yeah, I.
00:38:43
Speaker 5
Think that’s right.
00:38:44
Speaker 5
I mean, look, when times were as frothy as they were, a lot of bad ideas get funded and there’s a lot of bad behavior.
00:38:50
Speaker 5
That occurs, I don’t think all of it’s intentional.
00:38:52
Speaker 5
So it is just the lack of discipline that when capital is still freely available, people are building their businesses.
00:38:58
Speaker 5
In ways that we’re optimizing solely for one variable, which was top line growth, they just weren’t paying enough attention to gross margins or burned.
00:39:08
Speaker 5
And when you then.
00:39:09
Speaker 5
Have a downturn and capital is not so available.
00:39:11
Speaker 5
You have to build your business in a much more capital.
00:39:13
Speaker 5
Efficient way and.
00:39:14
Speaker 5
You can’t create fake businesses where you’re buying growth.
00:39:18
Speaker 5
That’s not economically justified.
00:39:20
Speaker 5
You know where?
00:39:20
Speaker 5
You’ve got negative unique onomics around the.
00:39:23
Speaker 5
So I think that this downturn is going to create a shakeout.
00:39:27
Speaker 5
It’s going to weed out bad ideas, bad practices and and a lack of focus, bad boards and and.
00:39:36
Speaker 2
Second one, trick ponies.
00:39:37
Speaker 5
And wondering parties.
00:39:42
Speaker 2
You know there’s just a.
00:39:42
Speaker 5
Lot of 1 trick ponies out there we’ve.
00:39:44
Speaker 5
Optimized growth, but don’t have a.
00:39:46
Speaker 5
Real business and it’s.
00:39:47
Speaker 5
Going to require it’s going to require entrepreneurs to.
00:39:52
Speaker 5
To play sort of more like multivariable calculus or math, not just single variable it.
00:39:57
Speaker 2
Is extremely difficult to convert PPI to DPI.
00:40:01
Speaker 2
You know the.
00:40:02
Speaker 2
Value of paper values into actual distributions and that.
00:40:05
Speaker 2
Takes a skilled hand.
00:40:08
Speaker 2
And I think that a lot of young.
00:40:11
Speaker 2
Folks were hired in Preventure that fundamentally did not know what they were doing.
00:40:16
Speaker 2
They’d neither ever built the company or helped build the company or actually learn how to generate returns, but they became very good at buying, you know, free call options on companies.
00:40:27
Speaker 2
You know, I remember like a lot of people the way that you, these young people remember.
00:40:31
Speaker 2
I heard a story that you would sell against goalie.
00:40:34
Speaker 2
But I start to say you were trying to do a deal and Bill gives you a term sheet from benchmark and you get, you know, somebody else, the young folks.
00:40:40
Speaker 2
So I thought bills too negative and he doesn’t get it.
00:40:43
Speaker 2
And they would try to convince these entrepreneurs.
00:40:45
Speaker 2
But you know, these rainy days don’t happen.
00:40:47
Speaker 2
My experience would probably accuse the most sophisticated investor of our generation.
00:40:53
Speaker 2
And what I mean by that is, you know, he was trained as an equity analyst that really understood business models and cost of capital.
00:41:03
Speaker 2
And so in a moment like this, the way that Gurley would help you on a board is meaningfully more important than how come, you know, middling DP with some.
00:41:11
Speaker 2
Randall startup is now a, you know, junior partner to venture firm because that person has literally no clue.
00:41:19
Speaker 2
And so these companies are going to go through a very difficult moment, which again is division wise.
00:41:25
Speaker 2
A good steady hand who knows what they’re doing will make a ton of money in this next cycle, and for people who don’t know GDPR then just give you a quick definition.
00:41:32
Speaker 2
This is the total value divided by the paid in capital.
00:41:35
Speaker 2
So total value is distributions like hey, here’s your Robin Hood stock user over software cash plus the net asset value without fancy word.
00:41:44
Speaker 2
The value of the.
00:41:45
Speaker 2
Shares of the companies that haven’t had an exit, and so you divide those two numbers, you get a ratio 1.51 point two, etc.
00:41:52
Speaker 2
Other charts points net asset value is debatable in some of these distributions are what matter.
00:41:58
Speaker 2
You can’t, you can’t meet the.
00:42:00
Speaker 4
The RR.
00:42:01
Speaker 2
You got anybody?
00:42:03
Speaker 2
All right, let’s keep going.
00:42:05
Speaker 2
I’ll do one more.
00:42:06
Speaker 2
I’m going to skip over.
00:42:08
Speaker 2
Well, I’ll just the question on Twitter that got the most votes with which exact net worth of each basking I would make the case that that’s probably not the best way to measure oneself and.
00:42:21
Speaker 2
You know, I don’t think we’re going to do it.
00:42:23
Speaker 2
Also would argue that we’re probably.
00:42:24
Speaker 2
All exposed to a lot of fuzzy math with private assets that we own and in terms of companies runs.
00:42:29
Speaker 1
But he cares.
00:42:30
Speaker 2
Up to there.
00:42:31
Speaker 2
Perfectly with happiness in life it.
00:42:33
Speaker 2
Right.
00:42:34
Speaker 2
So it doesn’t really, I don’t think it’s a big focus in terms of objectives.
00:42:38
Speaker 2
I’ll say the.
00:42:39
Speaker 2
Next one that got a lot of vote.
00:42:41
Speaker 2
Which I really.
00:42:41
Speaker 2
Like it’s a lagging indicator and a byproduct of what we do.
00:42:45
Speaker 2
There are moments when what we do.
00:42:49
Speaker 2
Reflection value that frankly rovey are old or earning and then there.
00:42:52
Speaker 2
Are periods where what?
00:42:54
Speaker 2
We do is under reflected in VR UNDEREARNING.
00:42:57
Speaker 2
And so the two line has to be that you need to survive in both good times and bad times, which means you gotta like what you’re doing.
00:43:04
Speaker 2
And if you get caught up in a numerical number, there’s all kinds of math you can do to make it look a lot bigger than it is.
00:43:09
Speaker 2
But it’s all meaningless, you know.
00:43:11
Speaker 2
I would argue you’re as long as.
00:43:12
Speaker 2
You’re actively.
00:43:13
Speaker 2
Developing yourself over time.
00:43:15
Speaker 2
The weighing machine will do its job, I think.
00:43:18
Speaker 2
Me in my 20s.
00:43:21
Speaker
When I was at.
00:43:21
Speaker 2
AOL, she said.
00:43:23
Speaker 2
You know, if you’re.
00:43:24
Speaker 2
Because at the time, I, you know, I grew up on welfare.
00:43:27
Speaker 2
I thought the goal was to make money.
00:43:29
Speaker 2
I didn’t know any better.
00:43:30
Speaker 2
I’ve learned later that there’s.
00:43:33
Speaker 2
A lot more leading indicators of happiness and things that actually cleaner, elite happiness.
00:43:38
Speaker 2
My travels like truffles.
00:43:39
Speaker 2
I I was going to say friendship my family.
00:43:42
Speaker 2
But yeah, OK.
00:43:43
Speaker 2
Yes, I had to find a lasting friendship.
00:43:46
Speaker 2
But, but, he said to me, you know, your goal should be to.
00:43:50
Speaker 2
Just be in the upper few percent of your age bracket.
00:43:54
Speaker 2
And just enjoy what you’re doing.
00:43:56
Speaker 2
And he said let time take care of everything else because as long as you find something you’re, you know, you gave something enjoy and are good at you’ll.
00:44:03
Speaker 2
Just get better.
00:44:04
Speaker 2
And better at that thing.
00:44:06
Speaker 2
And then at some point you know you will lose track of what the you know measurement of that is because you’re just too caught up in.
00:44:14
Speaker 2
And how much you enjoy doing the thing.
00:44:17
Speaker 2
And I thought that he had no idea what he was talking about. And now, 25 years later, I can tell you he was totally right.
00:44:26
Speaker 1
Total Russia.
00:44:28
Speaker 2
By the way, this is the question.
00:44:29
Speaker 2
I was trying to skip over so.
00:44:31
Speaker 2
Gradual good fork.
00:44:33
Speaker 2
OK, buddy of happiness.
00:44:34
Speaker 2
Yeah, yeah.
00:44:35
Speaker 5
I think after you know, observing outcomes for 25 years in tech, what I would say is that if you’re a smart, hardworking, don’t have behaviors that sabotage yourself and you know, take intelligent risk, you will be successful in this business. I mean technology.
00:44:51
Speaker 5
It’s such a wind at your back.
00:44:53
Speaker 5
It’s such an engine at wealth creation.
00:44:54
Speaker 5
How can you not do well?
00:44:56
Speaker 5
But the exact.
00:44:57
Speaker 5
Magnitude of how well you do I.
00:44:59
Speaker 5
Think is hopefully it is substantially.
00:45:00
Speaker 5
Affected by timing.
00:45:02
Speaker 5
And you know, like if you were employing whatever number X at Google, you’re going to do better than most founders even of the uniform company and when you found your company.
00:45:13
Speaker 5
And then when you exit what the market is doing, those things have a huge impact on the axis, on the magnitude.
00:45:20
Speaker 5
So you know, whether you end up being, you know, a billionaire or Spencer millionaire, you know, at Deca millionaire, whatever you.
00:45:26
Speaker 5
Want those things are.
00:45:27
Speaker 5
Very affected by timing, a chance but.
00:45:29
Speaker 5
Not whether you’re going to be successful at a substantial level.
00:45:35
Speaker 5
And though it’s just, you know, be smart, be hardworking those, sabotage yourself, you know, get into tech and.
00:45:41
Speaker 5
You will do well.
00:45:43
Speaker 5
Trust him out of how.
00:45:45
Speaker 5
Well, you do will be dependent on some, you know, strategic factors, but not the fact that we’re going.
00:45:50
Speaker 5
To do well.
00:45:50
Speaker 2
We are, he known as beneficiaries of having been born when we were because we’re a bunch of late 40s and early 50s, something that in the prime of our career in Iraq.
00:46:03
Speaker 2
The Federal Reserve took rates to 0.
00:46:07
Speaker 2
And we had no idea a priority, how important that will be in all of our outcomes.
00:46:12
Speaker 2
But they were.
00:46:13
Speaker 2
And even more importantly, paintings, Internet and mobile happened.
00:46:17
Speaker 2
All of that hard work was done beforehand by an entire core of people that had to fight much stronger headwinds that we had to fight.
00:46:24
Speaker 2
So you updated I just.
00:46:25
Speaker 2
Want to build on that like.
00:46:26
Speaker 2
We were extraordinarily lucky and so.
00:46:30
Speaker 2
Don’t get caught up in that because there’s all these factors you don’t you cannot control.
00:46:34
Speaker 2
I’ll say one more thing that I think the most important observation I’ve made in terms of.
00:46:41
Speaker 2
Whatever it is building wealth over time is to make sure you’re building equity in yourself.
00:46:47
Speaker 2
It’s your services business and every daily, and whether that’s serving the clients of the company you work for or just serving clients on behalf of yourself and everything you do is a transaction and that transaction doesn’t build on itself.
00:47:01
Speaker 2
Doesn’t compound value in some way.
00:47:04
Speaker 2
Then you’re missing out on an opportunity every year that goes by that you’re earning income or you’re not building equity is is a non compounding year and it’s compounding equity value that I think ultimately pays off for you as an individual.
00:47:19
Speaker 2
And I can give a lot of examples of this, but if you want to, let’s say a brokerage business.
00:47:24
Speaker 2
And you just do.
00:47:26
Speaker 2
And you might have a Goodyear.
00:47:27
Speaker 2
You might have.
00:47:28
Speaker 2
A badger.
00:47:28
Speaker 2
The real question you need to ask yourself is what is compounding?
00:47:32
Speaker 2
Are you growing a client base?
00:47:33
Speaker 2
Are you growing your skill set?
00:47:35
Speaker 2
Are you next you’re able to do more things or have more options than you had this year?
00:47:40
Speaker 2
And if the number of options you have is declining or static every year, then you’re limiting your equity value and that ultimately will translate into limited.
00:47:47
Speaker 5
Operation can chime in on that point.
00:47:49
Speaker 5
Around equity. So, yeah.
00:47:51
Speaker 5
When I discovered what equity was, this was involved in law school and actually the guy explains free was Antonio Grossius.
00:47:57
Speaker 5
A light bulb really went off for me because my dad is a doctor and I was on a path to becoming a lawyer.
00:48:03
Speaker 5
And in both those cases you’re a professional.
00:48:05
Speaker 5
The way you get paid is you more or less charging hourly rate and so the amount of money you can make is path right to take the number of hours in the day, then the week mostly apply it by your rate and that’s the most money you can make.
00:48:18
Speaker 5
Here and the difference between that and equity is with equity you own a piece of a business and that business could be ultimately worth, you know, any amount.
00:48:31
Speaker 5
And so your equity could therefore be worth virtually any amount and so you’re on.
00:48:34
Speaker 4
Thank you.
00:48:36
Speaker 5
And so just.
00:48:37
Speaker 5
You know, if you want to have outside success, you have to have equity in something.
00:48:42
Speaker 5
I think that is exactly right.
00:48:43
Speaker 5
If you’re just basically working for wages, you, even if you are the best at what you do and.
00:48:50
Speaker 5
You get paid.
00:48:51
Speaker 5
And then saying hourly rate you again you could.
00:48:53
Speaker 5
Be successful, but you’re not going to be untapped.
00:48:56
Speaker 5
And so that is the beauty that the video Pleasant Valley is all these companies offer equity to everybody.
00:49:02
Speaker 2
Not just shares in something you can actually get equity and create leverage in.
00:49:06
Speaker 2
Like in this era, more than any human has ever had.
00:49:10
Speaker 2
In any era prior.
00:49:11
Speaker 2
Because of software and computing and automation.
00:49:15
Speaker 2
You can create a website that prints cash for you everyday.
00:49:18
Speaker 2
If you want it to you, you can create a service that you get leverage at us and there’s.
00:49:21
Speaker 2
Equity value in.
00:49:22
Speaker 2
That, and I think that’s really.
00:49:24
Speaker 2
Key because then you can go.
00:49:25
Speaker 2
Build another one, another one of your building value.
00:49:27
Speaker 2
Over time.
00:49:28
Speaker 2
And that’s just like the most simplistic example of how technology today provides leverage that can really allow anyone to pursue a.
00:49:36
Speaker 2
Path of equity.
00:49:36
Speaker 6
And and maybe.
00:49:38
Speaker 5
That’s a good point about what are you getting.
00:49:39
Speaker 5
Leverage off of.
00:49:41
Speaker 5
Yeah, so there’s there’s a bunch of different.
00:49:43
Speaker 5
Things that leverage always are right.
00:49:45
Speaker 5
But so the old way was leverage off labor and.
00:49:45
Speaker 2
Anymore, yeah.
00:49:48
Speaker 5
I guess if you were to like.
00:49:49
Speaker 5
A consulting firm.
00:49:50
Speaker 5
Or like some sort of factory.
00:49:52
Speaker 5
Then the more people you have working the more money you would make.
00:49:57
Speaker 5
The other way would be like you get leverage off capital like a fund manager.
00:50:01
Speaker 5
That or you can get leverage off of technology that’s offered to basically create these super scaled outcomes.
00:50:06
Speaker 5
So you figure out like what is it you’re getting leverage off of.
00:50:10
Speaker 2
I’ll give you the last one, which I thought was a really good question and it got.
00:50:13
Speaker 2
A lot of.
00:50:13
Speaker 2
Votes from Marcos or teams if you had to start from scratch.
00:50:18
Speaker 2
No money, no connections, only the knowledge.
00:50:20
Speaker 2
We have right now and 100 thoughts. What would you build in 2022?
00:50:26
Speaker 2
I’d build something in energy transition originally.
00:50:30
Speaker 2
With $100.
00:50:33
Speaker 2
Yeah, I would build early startup incubator or venture fund of some type.
00:50:40
Speaker 2
The way to fund entrepreneurs will just be a capital allocator much earlier in my career.
00:50:47
Speaker 5
I would create a BP software company that actually already creating it, so I haven’t unveiled it yet, but there’s something.
00:50:55
Speaker 6
Which you getting right now.
00:50:57
Speaker 2
No, it’s the batteries.
00:50:58
Speaker 2
Well, well, well.
00:50:59
Speaker 2
Wait, what?
00:51:00
Speaker 2
When you’re big, what is going on here?
00:51:01
Speaker 2
Haven’t gotten.
00:51:02
Speaker 2
I haven’t gotten to.
00:51:04
Speaker 2
Have you raised money first?
00:51:05
Speaker 5
Sorry, I’m not raised money yet.
00:51:06
Speaker 5
But just want you guys.
00:51:06
Speaker 2
I have not gotten my subscription documents third.
00:51:07
Speaker 5
In the best if you could think of this.
00:51:10
Speaker 5
Idea as Yammer.
00:51:11
Speaker 5
2.0 So Jake out, you’re not in.
00:51:13
Speaker 5
Because you criticized the amber, but.
00:51:14
Speaker 2
So there’s a joke I gave you, though.
00:51:16
Speaker 2
I let you win TechCrunch 50.
00:51:17
Speaker 2
I put the talking stick with David just to put my pitch in.
00:51:21
Speaker 2
I ran human IQ.
00:51:23
Speaker 2
Help Facebook was an investor in Yammer.
00:51:25
Speaker 2
Was the series investors splashed on ready for you, I.
00:51:28
Speaker 6
Yeah, we were there.
00:51:28
Speaker 2
Am ready.
00:51:29
Speaker 6
We were there for us when we.
00:51:30
Speaker 5
Needed you back at Yammer days, I’m like.
00:51:33
Speaker 6
Right.
00:51:34
Speaker 2
Your wife.
00:51:35
Speaker 5
OK, OK, don’t worry.
00:51:38
Speaker 1
You’re all in.
00:51:39
Speaker 1
Don’t worry.
00:51:39
Speaker 2
In fact, let me in.
00:51:39
Speaker 1
You’re all in.
00:51:40
Speaker 5
When I do the round, you guys.
00:51:41
Speaker 2
Let me come here.
00:51:42
Speaker 6
Are in right?
00:51:46
Speaker 2
Three round round.
00:51:52
Speaker 2
Did you disagree on teacher?
00:51:54
Speaker 6
Right.
00:51:55
Speaker 5
There’s one thing you could do, which is you’ve got to.
00:51:57
Speaker 5
Rip out black and use this instead.
00:51:59
Speaker 4
I’m universe.
00:52:00
Speaker 2
100%.
00:52:00
Speaker 2
Just so you know, but I’m gonna be very honest with you.
00:52:04
Speaker 2
The day I left Facebook, I stopped using it.
00:52:07
Speaker 2
The day we told we distributed stopped using it.
00:52:11
Speaker 2
I really.
00:52:12
Speaker 2
I am 100%.
00:52:13
Speaker 2
Thank you.
00:52:15
Speaker 4
Let’s go.
00:52:17
Speaker
Judy so.
00:52:18
Speaker 2
Free, but you didn’t answer that question.
00:52:20
Speaker 2
Would you do?
00:52:20
Speaker 2
Well, actually I would get some water vaporizers and then I would get a molecule and I would make a new super.
00:52:28
Speaker 2
That was made.
00:52:31
Speaker 2
Keep going.
00:52:31
Speaker 2
I like it, I think.
00:52:33
Speaker 2
It’s something with protein flow.
00:52:34
Speaker 2
Should make some kind of state that takes better be safe.
00:52:38
Speaker 2
I I I would definitely build a.
00:52:41
Speaker 2
Business again I.
00:52:41
Speaker 6
Think being.
00:52:43
Speaker 2
You know, the challenge is uh.
00:52:45
Speaker 2
As you move past that stage in your career where you know you have the willingness and the time to be 120% building 1 product every day, it’s it’s really hard to go back to that and I think if I was in a position again where I had no money and had no.
00:53:04
Speaker 4
I think that’s.
00:53:04
Speaker 2
A key part of the question, not the $100.
00:53:06
Speaker 2
Part, Yeah, I think I would.
00:53:08
Speaker 2
Go back to building something.
00:53:09
Speaker 2
I do think the intersection of life sciences with software creates this area of opportunity.
00:53:15
Speaker 2
It would probably be prompting in the realm of AML.
00:53:19
Speaker 2
Meet Life Sciences where you can actually work.
00:53:22
Speaker 2
In a leveraged way with.
00:53:23
Speaker 2
Software to drive outcomes in these important markets so it doesn’t actually create.
00:53:29
Speaker 2
Broken, arm broken.
00:53:30
Speaker 2
I could have been profilers.
00:53:31
Speaker 2
We can go ahead and start or something.
00:53:31
Speaker
You be.
00:53:33
Speaker 3
Maybe we can still owe.
00:53:37
Speaker 2
The cofounders sacks will let you in the pre.
00:53:39
Speaker 2
Round if you let us in your prayers.
00:53:41
Speaker 5
OK, sounds good.
00:53:42
Speaker 2
Alright, I thought you want to take us forward.
00:53:44
Speaker 2
Should we go?
00:53:45
Speaker 2
OK, let’s see what’s on the docket.
00:53:48
Speaker 2
We’ve got Russia.
00:53:51
Speaker 2
Invasion of Ukraine.
00:53:53
Speaker 5
Yet Biden last week saying we’re facing the risk of Armageddon.
00:53:57
Speaker 5
How is?
00:53:57
Speaker 5
That not the top story.
00:53:58
Speaker 2
He throws taxi, food rotated.
00:54:00
Speaker 2
Ah, here we go.
00:54:01
Speaker 2
Let me just give it up for sacks.
00:54:03
Speaker 5
By last week, so we’re facing this problem again.
00:54:05
Speaker 5
That’s your start.
00:54:07
Speaker 6
And then and then Leon.
00:54:08
Speaker 5
Panetta, justice.
00:54:09
Speaker 5
Cheat up, Jacob.
00:54:10
Speaker 5
We don’t need.
00:54:10
Speaker 5
Everyone knows what’s going on.
00:54:13
Speaker 5
Leon Panetta, just with the former secretary, defense and director of Central Intelligence, wrote an op-ed for Politico.
00:54:20
Speaker 5
Saying that, intelligence analysts have now raised the probability of the use of attacking nuclear weapon Ukraine from 1 to 5% at the beginning of the war to 20 to 25% now is what he says.
00:54:35
Speaker 5
So and I.
00:54:36
Speaker 6
Don’t think you’d be.
00:54:36
Speaker 1
Saying that.
00:54:38
Speaker 5
If this was a pretty much traditional wisdom in Washington.
00:54:40
Speaker 5
Now I mean.
00:54:41
Speaker 5
Panetta is sort of a very respectable figure in the Beltway.
00:54:46
Speaker 5
So you have.
00:54:46
Speaker 2
And Biden said it right for the.
00:54:48
Speaker 5
An idea that I instead that we’re facing most dangerous situation and the highest risk of nuclear war since issued missile crisis, he called the risk of Armageddon.
00:54:48
Speaker 2
First time he was asking.
00:54:57
Speaker 5
The problem is that nobody is willing to say.
00:55:01
Speaker 5
What we should be doing differently to avoid this situation?
00:55:05
Speaker 5
So, you know, people are always.
00:55:06
Speaker 5
Attacking us for having a point of view on foreign policy.
00:55:09
Speaker 5
First of all, just the fact stuff.
00:55:10
Speaker 5
So I don’t know why we’re not.
00:55:11
Speaker 5
Allowed to have.
00:55:11
Speaker 5
A point of view, but you know.
00:55:13
Speaker 5
In in our business.
00:55:14
Speaker 5
Thinking where there’s an existential issue.
00:55:16
Speaker 5
You have the attitude of drop everything and figure this out. It’s nobody told you that there’s a 25% chance of your company blowing up. Maybe.
00:55:25
Speaker 5
In the next few weeks you would drop everything and focus on that problem.
00:55:29
Speaker 5
It’s like, you know, actually only getting comments.
00:55:31
Speaker 5
It’s like the.
00:55:32
Speaker 5
Media just passed.
00:55:33
Speaker 5
Over it.
00:55:33
Speaker 5
It’s like, oh, this is like crazy Biden or wherever.
00:55:36
Speaker 5
It was minimized, it was contextualized.
00:55:38
Speaker 5
The White House walked it back.
00:55:40
Speaker 5
Nobody is really focusing on this and what we should be doing differently.
00:55:43
Speaker 5
And in fact what Panetta recommends, and Petraeus said the same thing is that if Russia uses attack move in Ukraine, then we respond by attacking Russia directly.
00:55:54
Speaker 5
Now, if we do that, we are literally in World War three.
00:55:57
Speaker 5
And remember, at the beginning of the war, Biden was really clear.
00:56:01
Speaker 5
That we weren’t going to get directly involved.
00:56:02
Speaker 5
He vetoed the idea correctly of the No fly zone which would have required us to shoot down Russian plane.
00:56:09
Speaker 5
Biden, whenever he was asked the press conference beginning the war by Lester.
00:56:12
Speaker 5
Holt, he said.
00:56:13
Speaker 5
Holt said.
00:56:14
Speaker 5
You know, Mr.
00:56:14
Speaker 5
President, what if Americans are trapped behind?
00:56:16
Speaker 5
Enemy lines in Ukraine.
00:56:18
Speaker 5
Would you spend in American troops to get them?
00:56:20
Speaker 5
Fine said no.
00:56:21
Speaker 5
I think very properly said no because he said, listen, we do not want to risk war three, but now because of mission creep.
00:56:29
Speaker 5
And it’s still pretty slow, but we’ve all gotten more involved in this role.
00:56:32
Speaker 5
He’s gotten more emotionally committed.
00:56:33
Speaker 5
You now have Panetta and Petraeus calling for us to directly attack Russia and get enrolled.
00:56:40
Speaker 5
The Russians almost certainly would respond with nuclear because of all they’ve got, they don’t have the conventional forces to stand up to us.
00:56:47
Speaker 5
So look at how.
00:56:48
Speaker 5
Close we have now gotten to the brink of a nuclear showdown, and has anybody reassessed?
00:56:54
Speaker 5
Is anyone calling for us to re-evaluate?
00:56:56
Speaker 5
Because that’s the conversation.
00:56:57
Speaker 5
We’re having right now.
00:56:58
Speaker 2
And Frederick just brings up.
00:57:00
Speaker 2
Two points that I think you can comment on the ball, actually.
00:57:05
Speaker 2
The founder of Angel, Angel investor and just public banker.
00:57:09
Speaker 2
Also public intellectual.
00:57:11
Speaker 2
He came on calling with the two.
00:57:13
Speaker 3
Of you and he.
00:57:15
Speaker 2
You know, outlined The Who does yet to have an opinion on.
00:57:18
Speaker 2
Ukraine and other.
00:57:19
Speaker 2
Issues which has dovetail with this, like who gets to be an expert in the world today?
00:57:25
Speaker 2
And of course at the same time not only facts have been commenting on, hey, what’s the off ramp here Elon has been talking about, hey.
00:57:32
Speaker 2
You know how do?
00:57:32
Speaker 2
We get out of this.
00:57:33
Speaker 2
Do we have some votes, you know, by these regions that have been annexed or about are in dispute?
00:57:40
Speaker 2
AOC now is getting criticized by Mr People shouting her down at a public event today or yesterday that she did warmonger and she won’t speak out against more.
00:57:49
Speaker 2
How do you frame the public dialogue about this freeburg and then you see a potential off ramp here other than Putin news Russia, which is I think the public stands by a lot of folks.
00:58:00
Speaker 2
You know, proven tremendous.
00:58:02
Speaker 2
He just absolutely Ukraine in order for this to end.
00:58:05
Speaker 2
So two questions are fulfilled.
00:58:06
Speaker 2
But it’s very hard.
00:58:09
Speaker 2
Could have good dialogue about any situation.
00:58:15
Speaker 2
Where an argument could be made on the grounds of morality in an absolute sense.
00:58:22
Speaker 2
Making it really difficult to have a discourse around what the right thing to do is because you don’t agree me fundamentally on the objective you’re shooting for.
00:58:31
Speaker 2
One side says the objective is to preserve integrity.
00:58:36
Speaker 2
Of democracy and the freedom of people.
00:58:40
Speaker 2
And the other side says the objective should be to secure the interests of the West and the United States and preserve the world from nuclear Holocaust.
00:58:51
Speaker 2
I think that’s what makes this a challenging conversation.
00:58:54
Speaker 2
The objective can be reframed, and then from that objective each side can make their own case without being forced to take in the point of.
00:59:04
Speaker 2
View of the other side.
00:59:06
Speaker 2
And it’s why we’re at a bit of a standstill.
00:59:09
Speaker 2
And it’s also why it’s so easy to get swept up in a math point of view, a coalesced point of view of the masters.
00:59:18
Speaker 2
That makes one feel good about what may end up being a very bad situation.
00:59:23
Speaker 2
It feels good to say I’m doing this for freedom of the people.
00:59:26
Speaker 2
I’m doing this to save lives, and the end of the day it may cause a nuclear war.
00:59:33
Speaker 2
And it’s OK because I feel good going into this debate that this is the right thing, it’s the morally superior thing to do look very hard is that we can’t actually say.
00:59:45
Speaker 2
As a group, our objective should be to preserve the integrity of democracies around the world to an experience, and that’s a nuanced point of view.
00:59:54
Speaker 2
To an extent means I’m willing to preserve the democracies through certain actions, but I’m not willing to cross a certain line, and absolutism doesn’t.
01:00:04
Speaker 2
Mean to come into play?
01:00:06
Speaker 2
That’s what I think is making this such a very difficult conversation, and it’s why it’s so hard to actually have a conversation around it.
01:00:13
Speaker 2
And it’s really, I I would argue the most poignant and the most dramatic moment in what we talked about earlier, which is this deep seated kind of, you know, bipolarity and once you’re sitting on your pole, you don’t want to come off.
01:00:26
Speaker 2
And you don’t realize that so much of the dialogue is in this middle and we have to come to some point of view that maybe decision about an absolute outcome.
01:00:33
Speaker 2
It’s not absolutely going to be nuclear war.
01:00:36
Speaker 2
And it’s not.
01:00:36
Speaker 2
Absolutely going to be the end of democracy.
01:00:38
Speaker 2
There’s some conversation in the middle that’s very difficult to have and people that work.
01:00:45
Speaker 2
Somewhere in the world, hopefully ambassadors, foreign policy people, state department people hopefully are having the more nuanced, critical conversation about how do we resolve to the maximal outcome that doesn’t necessarily take us.
01:00:58
Speaker 2
To an absolute end.
01:00:59
Speaker 2
Jim Bob, to that point, it’s going to be an imperfect outcome here, yeah.
01:01:03
Speaker 2
Much simpler than all of this.
01:01:06
Speaker 2
Leon Panetta is a senior counselor to this defense contracting agency called Beacon Global Strategies who works on behalf of Raytheon.
01:01:15
Speaker 2
I found that out while Fienberg was talking in a 2 second Google search.
01:01:20
Speaker 2
I suspect that if you looked for Petraeus, his conflicts of interest, you would find that through some Byzantine set of, you know, strategic consulting organizations and whatnot, he also works on behalf of the defense industry.
01:01:32
Speaker 2
So you have these people who will generate more revenue and more profits if there is a massive war and those.
01:01:40
Speaker 2
People have been trying to push us into a land war in Europe since this whole thing start.
01:01:47
Speaker 2
And so this is just yet another attempt.
01:01:50
Speaker 2
It’s just the most final way of doing it.
01:01:51
Speaker 2
So I would just encourage people whenever you see all these folks clamoring for war.
01:01:59
Speaker 2
Is just to keep in mind that they are Riddle good conflict and that you can find it out again.
01:02:03
Speaker 2
This information is sitting in plain.
01:02:05
Speaker 2
Sight on the Internet and.
01:02:06
Speaker 2
You can figure out whether this.
01:02:07
Speaker 2
Person is is really advocating a truth that makes sense or they’re getting paid to shill a revenue generating mechanism for some part of the military industrial complex.
01:02:18
Speaker 2
How much of this is people talking more about the book being the military industrial complex?
01:02:21
Speaker 2
Than you need.
01:02:23
Speaker 5
I think it’s a big part of it.
01:02:24
Speaker 5
I think all these Washington think tanks, they are funded by defense contractors.
01:02:28
Speaker 5
I think it’s shortsighted, obviously, ’cause if it leads to nuclear war, nobody will be a defense and they won’t be anything left.
01:02:34
Speaker 5
So, but look, I think that I think that Washington is wired for war in part because there’s a huge lobby.
01:02:43
Speaker 5
For it’s for all these defense contractors and this lobby herpes.
01:02:46
Speaker 5
So I mean there’s no one really arguing for peace.
01:02:48
Speaker 2
Speaking this even.
01:02:50
Speaker 1
Right.
01:02:50
Speaker
Though I I’ll tell.
01:02:51
Speaker 2
You, I’ll tell you this longing for peace.
01:02:53
Speaker 2
And I’m going to.
01:02:54
Speaker 2
Connect what?
01:02:55
Speaker 2
Maybe seeing 2 disparate ideas together, but the single biggest thing, I think that will prevent nuclear war.
01:03:01
Speaker 2
Is the inflation that we’re feeling and the reason is because it allows the Fed, in my opinion for the first time really in the last 15 years to act properly and if they hold the line and they take interest rates to four, 5%.
01:03:17
Speaker 2
I think one non obvious outcome of all of us is that it becomes extremely expensive next to impossible to finance military adventurism abroad.
01:03:28
Speaker 2
And that’s a practical economic outcrop of really, you know, meaningfully high rates.
01:03:34
Speaker 2
Greater than 0.
01:03:35
Speaker 2
And so I actually think the reality is that for a lot of these governments.
01:03:40
Speaker 2
The more that inflation sticks around, the stickier it is.
01:03:43
Speaker 2
The higher rates are.
01:03:44
Speaker 2
In general, the bigger the problems at home are, and the less prone they’re going to be likely.
01:03:50
Speaker 2
I actually think that explains that explains the escalation of this rhetoric because people want to.
01:03:56
Speaker 2
Try to make.
01:03:56
Speaker 2
This issue and put it on the table.
01:03:58
Speaker 2
But you understand that you know these folks don’t save.
01:04:00
Speaker 2
90%.
01:04:01
Speaker 2
Likelihood. They go from 1% to 25%, which if you understand probabilities is effectively a left tail.
01:04:08
Speaker 2
That’s effectively the same.
01:04:10
Speaker 2
And the reason they’re trying to do it is they’re trying to get it backdated, as you say.
01:04:13
Speaker 2
To timestamp is to get it in front of people perspectives, to make it important in a moment where everybody increasingly, not just.
01:04:21
Speaker 2
In the United States, but in the UK, India, Europe are looking internally and trying to figure out how to keep their economies in a reasonably functioning way and how to make sure that their financial and other infrastructure keeps well.
01:04:34
Speaker 2
At that age and that is not necessarily a priority when rates are zero. But when Rachel 4%, I mean just by the way if you guys saw what happened today, it was the competing of two narratives this week.
01:04:45
Speaker 2
There was a financial narrative of the UK having to bail out their pension system right, of all of the substances, the pensions being forced.
01:04:53
Speaker 2
Sellers of those forced sellers now, you know, spilling into the United States debt markets around yellows and collateralized loan obligations and junk debt, which then could theoretically still as a contagion to other parts of the market.
01:05:07
Speaker 2
That was -, 1.
01:05:09
Speaker 2
And and all of that by the way, is the result of hiding inflation and you know spend moving up rates and you know other countries being forced to attack inflation with higher rates and creating all these dislocations, narrative ones, forces narrative 2, which is hey, all of a sudden we have to put the nuclear.
01:05:25
Speaker 2
Risk on the.
01:05:26
Speaker 2
Table and if you actually saw the print.
01:05:29
Speaker 3
That was spilled the.
01:05:31
Speaker 2
Disproportionate amount of the rhetoric actually focused on the former narrative enough the latter.
01:05:36
Speaker 2
And so I think that that’s why the deep folks.
01:05:40
Speaker 2
Are escalating the rhetoric in order to kind of create inequality so that they get enough printing of that version of the outcome.
01:05:46
Speaker 4
They watch.
01:05:49
Speaker 2
You’re saying is you have the world saying we can’t afford to have the conflict, we are broke.
01:05:55
Speaker 2
Just I think.
01:05:57
Speaker 2
The world is saying we are increasingly under enormous domestic.
01:06:02
Speaker 2
And as a result we cannot spend on things abroad, we can’t afford this and then the other side saying, well we need you to afford this, so nuclear is going to happen.
01:06:13
Speaker 2
Then nearly ten years of tax rate, there’s a there’s a small string of folks who economically benefit.
01:06:18
Speaker 2
Yeah, who are now ratcheting up their rhetoric so that that second path, which has been more and more on the table.
01:06:23
Speaker 2
What do you think of this pre build, this analysis such an optimist, these two polar, these two groups vying for?
01:06:32
Speaker 2
The attention and their budget of the world.
01:06:36
Speaker 2
With the military industrial complex, bushes, yes citizen, saying our country can’t afford this, we need to focus inward, not citizens of central banks.
01:06:46
Speaker 2
OK.
01:06:47
Speaker 2
But I think the central banks influenced by citizens, right?
01:06:49
Speaker 2
This is the whole system where we’re talking about people are.
01:06:52
Speaker 2
You know, watching their tensions are right.
01:06:53
Speaker 1
Well, I mean like.
01:06:54
Speaker 2
Or watching jobs.
01:06:56
Speaker 2
Get done.
01:06:56
Speaker 2
If I was a betting man I sent the I I would guess that the next half a trillion to a trillion dollars that is spent in Western world economy.
01:07:05
Speaker 2
Will be to subsidise something that’s broken internally inside of one of our countries, whether it’s the UK pension system or whether it’s the.
01:07:13
Speaker 2
High yield credit markets, and it will.
01:07:15
Speaker 2
Not be the finance.
01:07:17
Speaker 2
Military adventurism in Russia.
01:07:18
Speaker 2
Of fashion.
01:07:19
Speaker 5
Project just under score that point. So there’s an article today in the Washington Post about how the US government steps progress is going to be around 570 billion this year, which is a 45% increase.
01:07:31
Speaker 5
Right. And budget for 2023 is only 1.6 trillion. So you’re talking about something like over a third now of the official budget is already going to debt service?
01:07:40
Speaker 2
Because it’s not variable, right?
01:07:40
Speaker 5
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
01:07:41
Speaker 2
It’s available.
01:07:42
Speaker 5
So much of it is, is it’s not locked in long term rates.
01:07:46
Speaker 5
So because interest rates have gone up so much, the debt service gone out and interests are still going up.
01:07:51
Speaker 5
And so you.
01:07:52
Speaker 5
Know Druckenmiller had those points around how the desk services within a decade is getting there.
01:07:57
Speaker 5
Probably the whole federal budget.
01:07:59
Speaker 5
So Trump is right that we’ve never really had to choose between guns and butter before in the path it was just listens to both and will rack up more national debt.
01:08:08
Speaker 5
I do think there will be more and more pressure to.
01:08:11
Speaker 1
This type of.
01:08:12
Speaker 5
Spending and why we’ve already given Ukraine $80 billion in the handouts when we can’t afford to basically pay for, you know, major entitlements at home.
01:08:23
Speaker 5
So I think there’ll be more pressure now.
01:08:25
Speaker 5
I think.
01:08:25
Speaker 5
I don’t know if that pressure is going to come in time though, to deescalate this Ukraine war, and that’s what concerns me.
01:08:29
Speaker 2
It’s not. It’s not.
01:08:32
Speaker 5
And just to just to cut to the chase on desk, I think where the rubber meets the road on Ukraine is Crimea.
01:08:38
Speaker 5
And why?
01:08:39
Speaker 5
Because the Russians have a major naval base there at 7 stoepel.
01:08:43
Speaker 5
It’s the home of the Black Sea fleet.
01:08:46
Speaker 5
And the thing will never give that up.
01:08:48
Speaker 5
They are willing to use news, I believe.
01:08:50
Speaker 5
To basically protect that asset.
01:08:52
Speaker 5
It’s a vital interest of their salon.
01:08:54
Speaker 5
80% of the population of Crimea it know Russian, and 3/4 of them according to polling that was done by Gallup and by a German polling firm. So not Russian polls indicated that they.
01:09:05
Speaker 5
See themselves as Russian, only part of Russia.
01:09:07
Speaker 5
So if we supported self-determination, we’d be fine with premier being part of Russia.
01:09:11
Speaker 5
But here’s the rub.
01:09:12
Speaker 5
Ukrainian nationalism demands that every square inch of premier goes back to it.
01:09:18
Speaker 5
And in this State Department policy right now that we will never recognize Crimea as being Russian, will never recognize the annexation which happened back in 2014.
01:09:27
Speaker 5
So something’s gotta give here.
01:09:28
Speaker 5
Something’s gotta give.
01:09:29
Speaker 5
Either we have to sit down, zalenski, and stay there and listen.
01:09:34
Speaker 5
You’re not getting back from yet.
01:09:35
Speaker 5
We’re going to make that.
01:09:36
Speaker 5
Part of a peace deal or.
01:09:37
Speaker 5
We’re going to back the Ukrainians in their military effort to recheck Crimea, with the result that I think is quite likely that the Russians would be willing to use at tackle Luke to prevent their troubled.
01:09:50
Speaker 5
So at some point we’re gonna have to choose which of these outcomes do you want.
01:09:53
Speaker 5
Do you want to basically?
01:09:54
Speaker 5
Go for a negotiated settlement.
01:09:56
Speaker 5
Which means telling the Ukrainians that.
01:09:57
Speaker 5
Cannot have everything they want.
01:09:59
Speaker 5
Or do you really want to risk a nuclear war to take back Crimea, which is Russian, and the people there seem puzzles Russian, so we need to make.
01:10:07
Speaker 2
A choice here?
01:10:09
Speaker 2
So Elon put out a tweet.
01:10:11
Speaker 2
And got stab Lish word and he.
01:10:13
Speaker 2
Outlines sort of what you’re saying here.
01:10:16
Speaker 2
So do you think his plan he said redo elections annex regions when the UN supervision Russia leaves gift that is the will of the people.
01:10:24
Speaker 2
And then he says currently or formerly part of Russia hasn’t spent some time maybe 3 water supply to Crimea assured as you’re saying UK remains central should be left forced Ukraine to expect these type of terms.
01:10:35
Speaker 2
Essentially elections, and I know like rinea wouldn’t be part of that election process.
01:10:40
Speaker 2
Do you think UN supervised elections in those regions should occur and we should force them to do that?
01:10:47
Speaker 5
So he who?
01:10:48
Speaker 5
Pays the piper, calls the tune.
01:10:50
Speaker 5
Of course we.
01:10:51
Speaker
Need to have.
01:10:51
Speaker 5
A point of view on how this war should.
01:10:53
Speaker 5
Be resolved when we get.
01:10:53
Speaker 2
Should be person to do.
01:10:54
Speaker 5
That listen, it’s not about force.
01:10:57
Speaker 5
They can spy it on and do whatever they want as long as they want.
01:11:00
Speaker 5
Hold on.
01:11:01
Speaker 5
Our supported sentence about American weapons.
01:11:04
Speaker 5
Do you think we should do that?
01:11:04
Speaker 1
Hold on a second.
01:11:05
Speaker 2
For the American, my family if he doesn’t.
01:11:08
Speaker 5
Galinski wants all weapons in support, which appeared to be infinite.
01:11:12
Speaker 5
We should not give him a.
01:11:13
Speaker 5
Blank cheque guarantee?
01:11:14
Speaker 5
The blank check is hot is what started World War One.
01:11:17
Speaker 5
The German Kaiser gave Austria blank cheque, guarantee of letter or one.
01:11:21
Speaker 5
That is how great powers get pulled into the wars.
01:11:23
Speaker 5
Of minor power.
01:11:25
Speaker 5
And we.
01:11:26
Speaker 1
Actually have.
01:11:26
Speaker 5
To have a point of view on how we do not get pulled into this and I think our one of.
01:11:31
Speaker 5
Our lines should.
01:11:32
Speaker 5
Be that we are not going to fund.
01:11:34
Speaker 5
The Ukrainians in retaking Crimea.
01:11:36
Speaker 1
Got it.
01:11:37
Speaker 2
So just to put A to clear this that we can move on to the next topic, we are in support of removing, not giving further weapons support.
01:11:47
Speaker 2
If not, here it comes to that.
01:11:48
Speaker 5
Not going to come to that, we.
01:11:49
Speaker 5
Each have a.
01:11:50
Speaker 2
Point of view on how you are in support of that, stopping our support if they don’t.
01:11:50
Speaker 5
This war gets resolved.
01:11:54
Speaker 2
Sit down and negotiate a settlement here.
01:11:57
Speaker 5
America needs to have a point of view of what is in its own interests.
01:12:00
Speaker 5
What is in our interest is for this to get resolved diplomatically at some point through a negotiated settlement, not hurt, to escalate into a nuclear war that we could get pulled into the only way that’s going.
01:12:11
Speaker 5
Happen, OK, is if premier goes back to Russia, I’m telling you, they will be willing to pull out all.
01:12:16
Speaker 5
The stops and they could even use techniques.
01:12:16
Speaker 6
I’m good.
01:12:19
Speaker 5
Before Crimea?
01:12:19
Speaker 2
Premier, but you act with the question now that I lost three times, would you remove American support in weapons if they don’t accept that?
01:12:25
Speaker 2
If Ukraine doesn’t accept that, would you?
01:12:27
Speaker 2
Be comfortable taking away our support.
01:12:28
Speaker 5
In the House when it comes to that.
01:12:30
Speaker 5
But yes.
01:12:30
Speaker 5
We should be willing to threaten that.
01:12:32
Speaker 5
I’m just trying to.
01:12:32
Speaker 2
Get you to answer that one second.
01:12:33
Speaker 3
They are.
01:12:35
Speaker 5
They are a client state of the US they do not call the shots were America. We call the shots.
01:12:40
Speaker 5
Right, exactly right. That’s the.
01:12:41
Speaker 1
Bottom line and.
01:12:42
Speaker 5
You really want to get pulled into.
01:12:43
Speaker 5
A nuclear war because.
01:12:44
Speaker 2
I do not.
01:12:45
Speaker 2
I just wanted you to answer that one question we should.
01:12:47
Speaker 3
We need to get real here.
01:12:47
Speaker 2
Pull out lessons if they don’t.
01:12:48
Speaker 1
Yeah, real OK.
01:12:50
Speaker 1
Forgot about our future.
01:12:51
Speaker 4
You know where?
01:12:52
Speaker 5
Are American nationals.
01:12:54
Speaker 5
Perhaps most I sports golf rules.
01:12:56
Speaker 5
I think we accomplished something by preventing her from getting toppled.
01:13:00
Speaker 5
But I want to support people.
01:13:03
Speaker 2
This conference element change.
01:13:05
Speaker 2
I think the most important thing that we can all be thankful for, which I think will prevent.
01:13:10
Speaker 2
A lot of.
01:13:10
Speaker 2
Wars in the next 10 or 20 years is inflation.
01:13:13
Speaker 2
And non 0.
01:13:14
Speaker 2
Interest rates, it’s just going to be really tough like you know program in UK cannot do anything right now other than make sure that they have foreign currency reserves to back up the pound which they don’t really have that much.
01:13:26
Speaker 2
They’re going to need money to bail out their pension system.
01:13:29
Speaker 2
Whoever thought it was a good?
01:13:30
Speaker 2
Idea to allow pensions to run levered risk because.
01:13:34
Speaker 2
It’s obviously in staining.
01:13:35
Speaker 2
Could you imagine if it turns out that the teachers pensions and the firefighters tensions in?
01:13:39
Speaker 2
America were running leveled long, I mean.
01:13:44
Speaker 2
This time get resolved now.
01:13:45
Speaker 2
He’s just their breaking point.
01:13:46
Speaker 1
No, don’t.
01:13:46
Speaker 2
Yeah, that’s cool.
01:13:47
Speaker 2
You know, the pension.
01:13:48
Speaker 2
Is I know I’m not.
01:13:49
Speaker 2
Trying some fancy.
01:13:49
Speaker 4
Only, yeah, it’s just.
01:13:52
Speaker 1
It’s loaded.
01:13:52
Speaker 2
I’m thinking, I I’m saying don’t use some fancy inside Logan.
01:13:55
Speaker 2
I’m saying practically speaking, the treasure is not allowed to call Goldman Sachs and say I’m going to run 2 terms of leverage on this money.
01:14:01
Speaker 2
That is not allowed to.
01:14:02
Speaker 2
Happen in the United States?
01:14:03
Speaker 2
OK, I get in some fancy way.
01:14:05
Speaker 2
It could be thought of as clever, blonde, you know, all kinds of indirections.
01:14:09
Speaker 2
But that is not how the world works.
01:14:10
Speaker 2
Today, practically speaking, it is how the UK works.
01:14:13
Speaker 2
A treasure in the UK pension system is allowed to call a goal of an investment bank and actually run levered.
01:14:20
Speaker 2
That is insane.
01:14:22
Speaker 2
OK, so my point is when rates are non 0, all of that jig is up, governments are forced to batten down the hatches and you know, husband cash.
01:14:34
Speaker 2
For God knows what will break in the systems.
01:14:37
Speaker 2
And I think that that is, and as disruptive as that is, it may actually be the bulwark against.
01:14:44
Speaker 2
Or the jig is up fault.
01:14:47
Speaker 2
I mean, I think that’s what we should take away from this is we can’t afford this and the United States is finding it.
01:14:53
Speaker 2
We have to force this settlement here and it.
01:14:54
Speaker 2
Will be a profile.
01:14:55
Speaker 4
Transportation deeds.
01:14:55
Speaker 2
In courage silver lining of.
01:14:58
Speaker 2
OK, Andy Jassy, we’ve had an all hands meeting.
01:15:00
Speaker 2
Amazon is freaking hiring for corporate roles from the child business.
01:15:04
Speaker 2
This 90 degrees or higher level execs I’ve looked down on since 2021.
01:15:08
Speaker 2
Early this week there was an all hands presentation in the slides were leaked to business human spider.
01:15:13
Speaker 2
Some of them constraints breed or social next steps efficiency and innovation.
01:15:17
Speaker 2
There are no extra points with growing headcount, budget size or fixed expense for slides instructing boys to accomplish more with relaxed.
01:15:24
Speaker 2
Sounds familiar?
01:15:25
Speaker 2
Sounds like something you left needs to do and foreign policy needs to do.
01:15:28
Speaker 2
Amazon Leadership Team merged employee to double down on frugality chassis.
01:15:33
Speaker 2
Will also spoke in the meeting.
01:15:34
Speaker 2
Just a couple of quotes and then I’ll get your thoughts trim off.
01:15:38
Speaker 2
It’s on a lot of people’s minds and of course none of us know for sure what’s going to happen, but there are a lot of signs that point to this being a.
01:15:44
Speaker 2
Difficult and rough economy ahead of us and I don’t know how long that will last.
01:15:47
Speaker 2
But I think it’s one of the things that we are thinking.
01:15:50
Speaker 2
About and we decided that.
01:15:52
Speaker 2
We’re going to be more streamlined in how we expand in 2023. Good companies that last a long period of time who are thinking about the long term always have this push and pull trim off what do.
01:16:02
Speaker 2
You read into this.
01:16:04
Speaker 2
Well, there are three quick things.
01:16:06
Speaker 2
One is that today.
01:16:08
Speaker 2
Thursday, October 13th we had.
01:16:11
Speaker 2
And inflation print which was worse than expected and the markets are materially higher, right.
01:16:16
Speaker 2
So in orange, why?
01:16:18
Speaker 2
Well, I, you know we talked about this a few weeks ago, but you know my thought then and saying is it’s the same that I think now is that we’ve effectively seemed in near.
01:16:26
Speaker 2
Term bottom and.
01:16:27
Speaker 2
We’re now consolidating and so every opportunity people.
01:16:30
Speaker 2
Have to justify that most of the news is behind them. They take and then use that as a reason provide. OK, so that’s #1, which is that we are sort of near the end. The second however, is that.
01:16:43
Speaker 2
If we do see another leg down.
01:16:46
Speaker 2
There is really only one cohort of company.
01:16:49
Speaker 2
That hasn’t been really last, and I’ll summarize it very quickly by saying it’s Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Google.
01:16:56
Speaker 2
That’s it. Even Facebook has now been sort of put into the bucket of everybody else where, you know, we’ve been crushed 5070% in those companies. So, so, so.
01:17:07
Speaker 2
What does that mean?
01:17:07
Speaker 2
Well, those four companies are now being identified for what they may be, which in capitalism is called over earnings.
01:17:16
Speaker 2
OK, they are making more money than you think is appropriate.
01:17:21
Speaker 2
This letter from an INTJ as he is his way of effectively telling his major shareholders that he is now moving the business to become more of a cash cow business.
01:17:30
Speaker 2
Tim Cook made this incredible decision in 201617 meeting that effectively did the same thing. That’s when focus came. Then that’s when he established a huge ownership in the stock.
01:17:41
Speaker 2
That’s when the stock absolutely ripped because it moved into a different bucket in people minds.
01:17:46
Speaker 2
It became growth at a pretty reasonable.
01:17:49
Speaker 2
I think only is making the case that Amazon is going to become one of these GARP stocks growth at a reasonable price.
01:17:55
Speaker 2
He’s going to generate a ton of cash flow.
01:17:58
Speaker 2
He’s going to keep expenses nominal.
01:18:00
Speaker 2
He’s going to return a ton of cash to shareholders with buybacks.
01:18:04
Speaker 2
That’s the reading in between the lines of that letter.
01:18:07
Speaker 2
I think it’s a really profound.
01:18:10
Speaker 2
And a very smart move because you haven’t seen that letter or a version of that letter yet from Microsoft, and you started to seem hints of that letter from Sudan where he said you know it and he’s not stable and he’s not there yet.
01:18:22
Speaker
Rattling, yeah.
01:18:24
Speaker 2
He’s in the.
01:18:25
Speaker 2
Appetizer part, you know.
01:18:26
Speaker 2
He doesn’t boost where he’s like, oh, you know, you gotta work harder.
01:18:29
Speaker 2
Hey guys, let’s feed some fancy acronyms.
01:18:32
Speaker 2
But soon.
01:18:33
Speaker 2
Those like courage?
01:18:33
Speaker 2
No, but he’s got courage.
01:18:35
Speaker 2
He would get arrested and stayed off too.
01:18:37
Speaker 2
And so I think what it means is V3 and 84 companies are going to draw a hard line in the sand and say we are not overturning, do not abandon this doc. That again will help.
01:18:50
Speaker 2
Putting the bottom in the stock market, what do you think for Burger? You worked at this company and you know the principles across the board. The Saber rattling will turn into Sabre swinging in Q4Q1 group.
01:19:07
Speaker 4
Amazon is.
01:19:10
Speaker 2
Affected in a different way because they operate this physical supply chain business, they’re delivering goods to people, homes that people are buying for their they they really have to.
01:19:21
Speaker 2
Change their trajectory very quickly.
01:19:23
Speaker 2
It was incredible.
01:19:24
Speaker 2
You guys remember when COVID hit he tried to place an order on Amazon?
01:19:27
Speaker 2
It was like 3 weeks to deliver because the.
01:19:29
Speaker 2
Infrastructure wasn’t there.
01:19:30
Speaker 2
To do it so they actually were seeing more orders than their system had predicted.
01:19:35
Speaker 2
And they did. Massive filled out. They hired 1,000,000 people or something in their network to meet demand and then.
01:19:41
Speaker 2
Over the next.
01:19:42
Speaker 2
Here our earnings went through the roof, their infrastructure and employee headcount went through the roof.
01:19:48
Speaker 2
And now we’re obviously coming back down the other side of the mountain and they’re having to shift strategy and shift or operating model.
01:19:55
Speaker 2
But yet again, there’s a a broader step and that’s because they’re in the direct commerce business.
01:20:05
Speaker 2
And other kind of software companies, some of which benefits from advertising, which is almost like a poster winners on the consumer market or of course derivative on the spending of companies that sell to consumers have a little bit of a different calculus. They’re much higher margin business, 30% EBIT, AH, kind of business with even some margin business.
01:20:26
Speaker 2
With a very distinct kind of set of challenges on how advertising revenue is going to be affected over the next couple of quarters and balancing that against their cloud platform which is sold to enterprises.
01:20:38
Speaker 2
And their media consumption platform, which is generally like YouTube at Google Case, which is less affected, so it’s not as much of a direct counter, if I will say what’s happened over the past decade, which were now being changed, is these companies have had extraordinary growth of hiring people to no end. There’s always been.
01:20:56
Speaker 2
You know, kind of this extended expense on Capitol, on Stephen Capital and that expense of human capital has driven the average cost per employee through the roof.
01:21:06
Speaker 2
And it’s not just the salaries, it’s the cost of the RFU is it’s the cost of the facilities and the free ice cream and the gems and all the other stuff that’s gone on to compete that’s now changing.
01:21:17
Speaker 2
And so it really is creating a different model for operating that hasn’t existed for the last decade, where everything has been, you know, how many more things we throw in the kitchen, you know, so like the kitchen, think of this problem to get all the human capital here.
01:21:28
Speaker 2
And I think that’s really, you know what’s going to kind of structurally change in the valley.
01:21:32
Speaker 2
It’s not as acute as what Amazon is doing with gestural like that.
01:21:37
Speaker 2
Those are the last.
01:21:39
Speaker 2
It is the past month.
01:21:41
Speaker 2
They are then.
01:21:42
Speaker 2
They are the ones that take the index to 3200. If we’re going to try to do it, there’s only one place to look.
01:21:48
Speaker 2
You whacked everybody else. Everything is down, you know, 50 to 90% in some cases. So. And then finally, you know. And by the way, sorry, just depends. Of last year, 1/4 of every SNP dollar was crowded.
01:22:01
Speaker 2
In those names.
01:22:02
Speaker 2
1/4 so you’ve got to go there.
01:22:05
Speaker 2
Yeah, I mean, and also they’re automatically bought, right?
01:22:07
Speaker 2
They’re automatically bought by these index funds.
01:22:09
Speaker 2
And so who’s at the wheel saying we’re not going to take the money out of them?
01:22:13
Speaker 2
Like who? Who in their right mind is taking money out of Apple, Amazon and Microsoft? Ready to put it, I guess, is everybody’s question.
01:22:20
Speaker 2
That sounds like if you take it out of.
01:22:21
Speaker 2
Their way to.
01:22:22
Speaker 2
Put it well, no, I think.
01:22:24
Speaker 2
I think it’s just that when.
01:22:25
Speaker 2
When you have patterns of selling typically like I’ve seen it’s, my experience is that inequality is the algorithm.
01:22:33
Speaker 2
That really starts to push our market in a direction.
01:22:35
Speaker 2
Then you have.
01:22:37
Speaker 2
You know, the more traditional front complexes, that’s the hedge funds are Malone, only they follow suit.
01:22:44
Speaker 2
And then the last group tends to be retail.
01:22:47
Speaker 2
And it works in reverse the other way as well.
01:22:50
Speaker 2
And so, you know, obviously there’s exceptions though these, but as a general rule.
01:22:54
Speaker 2
So I’ve reached out for spelling on Amazon.
01:22:57
Speaker 2
And even in pineapple.
01:22:57
Speaker
Are right now.
01:22:58
Speaker 2
They are there, they are sellers now.
01:23:00
Speaker 2
But they have time to buy it.
01:23:02
Speaker 2
But again, this is this is where sort of organized capital now is finding a bottom again, writing.
01:23:08
Speaker 2
When you start to shake to think about.
01:23:09
Speaker 2
The psychology of like.
01:23:11
Speaker 2
Being delivered bad news after bad news, you go through the cycles, right?
01:23:14
Speaker 2
There’s denial, there’s anger, there’s depression, there’s bargaining.
01:23:17
Speaker 2
But then at some point there is acceptance.
01:23:20
Speaker
And in that.
01:23:20
Speaker 2
Acceptance is your life.
01:23:22
Speaker 2
Yeah, you’re in trouble.
01:23:25
Speaker 2
But when you see the market rally into a print like this, it’s a it’s really, really interesting psychological turning point as a proof point to what you’re saying.
01:23:34
Speaker 2
Stacked Shabbat and sacrilege for comment on this.
01:23:37
Speaker 2
Venture capital firms like Sequoia, Excel and others that have now changed their status as you know, just private companies, but also dabbling in public.
01:23:46
Speaker 2
Are buying public equities, which basically means they see more opportunity in public underpriced tech stocks, growth stocks, etc.
01:23:56
Speaker 2
Than they do in late stage.
01:23:59
Speaker 2
Private companies, correct?
01:24:00
Speaker 2
Instead of Wall Street Journal, sorry, I’m assuming.
01:24:02
Speaker 1
Sack just all that, would you?
01:24:05
Speaker 1
Would you?
01:24:05
Speaker 2
Read into that is.
01:24:06
Speaker 2
It overblown or is it indicative of?
01:24:08
Speaker 5
Something I think is probably overblown because declare created that fund that is a hedge fund and Andreessen Horowitz became a registered investment advisor so they could buy public securities.
01:24:17
Speaker 5
So I look, I don’t think most venture.
01:24:19
Speaker 5
Funds are often investing in public markets.
01:24:21
Speaker 5
We aren’t even allowed to do that as far as I know, nor did we ever try to.
01:24:25
Speaker 5
So I think probably it’s exactly.
01:24:29
Speaker 2
Exception exception.
01:24:30
Speaker 2
But you can do it.
01:24:31
Speaker 5
Yeah, yeah.
01:24:32
Speaker 5
I mean, we wouldn’t want to.
01:24:33
Speaker 5
But it’s kind of the point.
01:24:35
Speaker 5
But look, I can’t.
01:24:36
Speaker 5
Explain why the market did what it did today.
01:24:40
Speaker 5
It could have, like months, and it could have been some sort of algorithmic, you know, buying or selling.
01:24:46
Speaker 5
But I just think that the overall news today was the commentators was just another really bad report, I mean to create headlines from the New York Times today.
01:24:55
Speaker 5
I’m going to read.
01:24:56
Speaker 5
Do the headlines on a single sort of scrolling page here #1 inflation came in much faster than expected. Bad news for the Fed.
01:25:05
Speaker 5
Takeaways from another painful inflation report 3.
01:25:08
Speaker 5
Disappointing inflation data queues Democrats on defense setting midterm elections or three prices climb again waiting on household budgets 5 rent inflation remain tentative troubles by his used car prices on declining as much.
01:25:22
Speaker 2
Give chance to take some research gas.
01:25:26
Speaker 5
Prices fall slightly, but overall energy costs are soon expected to rise.
01:25:31
Speaker 5
Retirees are getting an 8.7%, so security has been raised biggest in decades, I guess that.
01:25:35
Speaker 5
One is sort of positive.
01:25:36
Speaker 5
But it’s like some really negative headline after making headlines in the New York Times.
01:25:38
Speaker
Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Totally.
01:25:40
Speaker 2
But can I reinterpret that for you? I think I think the way to think about it is this is that said the resolve it needs, it’s going to go by 75. It’s probably going to go another 75. We’re going to have rates by 4:00 to 4:50 to 5%.
01:25:54
Speaker 2
Probably within Q1, which means.
01:25:56
Speaker 2
If you’re trying to.
01:25:56
Speaker 2
Figure out where the bottom is.
01:25:58
Speaker 2
It’s monthly knowledge and so that’s why you see smart money dated shaking this thing off and starting to enter the market.
01:26:05
Speaker 2
And so again, and the other version interpretation is when rates are four or five.
01:26:09
Speaker 2
Percent the cost of servicing, United States says, is so meaningful.
01:26:14
Speaker 2
As the percentage of their budget, the incremental spends that they would need to make to.
01:26:18
Speaker 2
Enter a new war.
01:26:20
Speaker 2
Is too much I.
01:26:21
Speaker 2
I love this point.
01:26:22
Speaker 2
I love this one.
01:26:23
Speaker 2
But we’re reading all these things together do.
01:26:25
Speaker 6
Yeah, well, look.
01:26:25
Speaker 2
We want, I mean.
01:26:26
Speaker 5
So, right.
01:26:28
Speaker 5
So on the economic page of the New York Times, you is this disastrous headline foods as headline, then you turn to foreign policy page.
01:26:34
Speaker 5
You got Tom Friedman writing a column here saying we are suddenly taking on China, Russia at the same time.
01:26:39
Speaker 5
And Tom Friedman historically has been a huge.
01:26:42
Speaker 5
And he is even saying he’s saying, popping up on the great never fight Russian shy at the same time.
01:26:48
Speaker 5
Yeah, so he says we are in in charted water waters.
01:26:52
Speaker 5
I just hope these are not.
01:26:53
Speaker 5
Our new forever wars.
01:26:54
Speaker 5
It’s like, whoa, so basically looks our economic base, our economy is crumbling at home at the same time that we are doing unprecedented.
01:27:02
Speaker 5
Saber rattling abroad, this is not computed.
01:27:04
Speaker 2
We my my prediction.
01:27:05
Speaker 5
Need to take a time.
01:27:07
Speaker 2
I agree with you, but my my prediction is that we will not enter a new war with rates flexing up as aggressively.
01:27:09
Speaker 4
I love it.
01:27:15
Speaker 2
As they are.
01:27:15
Speaker 4
I love it.
01:27:16
Speaker 2
Love reading these stories together.
01:27:17
Speaker 2
I think it makes a lot of sense.
01:27:19
Speaker 2
We didn’t have time for Alex Jones, but we’ll save that for another episode.
01:27:22
Speaker 2
Gentlemen, I think it’s our best episode ever.
01:27:24
Speaker 2
It’s an honor and a privilege to spend this hour or so with you every week.
01:27:28
Speaker 2
I love you like brothers.
01:27:29
Speaker 2
And it’s been a great hundred episodes. I look forward to 100 more stacks if you need a mental health break.
01:27:35
Speaker 2
Doctor friedberg.
01:27:36
Speaker 2
No, no, no, David.
01:27:39
Speaker 2
Will be back next Friday.
01:27:39
Speaker 2
I just want to surprise.
01:27:41
Speaker 2
Things you don’t read your.
01:27:41
Speaker 2
Replies get all of them.
01:27:43
Speaker 2
I just want to say how much I love you guys and I’m really proud of what we’ve created.
01:27:47
Speaker 2
And I’m really.
01:27:48
Speaker 2
Excited to get to the next 100?
01:27:50
Speaker 2
And I’ll see you guys tonight.
01:27:52
Speaker 2
I’ll break up the right problem.
01:27:53
Speaker 1
You wanna keep going?
01:28:00
Speaker 6
I will say that.
01:28:01
Speaker 5
Steakhouse moderation’s been.
01:28:02
Speaker 5
A lot better since he got brigaded.
01:28:05
Speaker 2
That is his way of thinking.
01:28:07
Speaker 2
2nd it’s been 100 episodes. I love you so much. I love your free bird. Let’s see if we can get to do it. It’s been a.
01:28:15
Speaker 2
100 after so she hasn’t studied yet.
01:28:17
Speaker 2
But I love you.
01:28:18
Speaker 2
David, are you coming to it?
01:28:20
Speaker 6
OK oh, wait, wait.
01:28:22
Speaker 5
Let me check, I’ll get back to you offline.
01:28:25
Speaker 2
All right, so hold on a second, hold on a.
01:28:25
Speaker 1
I’ll try.
01:28:27
Speaker 2
Second, sax, I love you.
01:28:36
Speaker 2
Can you stay on that?
01:28:47
Speaker 2
100 baby.
01:28:51
Speaker 2
Thank you tonight. Bye, bye.
01:28:54
Speaker 5
Let your winners live.
01:28:57
Speaker 2
Raymond James.
01:29:00
Speaker 5
2nd we open sourced it to the fans and they.
01:29:04
Speaker 5
Just went crazy.
01:29:07
Speaker 3
In what?
01:29:24
Speaker 2
We knew that.
01:29:25
Speaker 2
We could all just in a room and just have one big huge or because they’re also produced from like this, like sexual tension.
01:29:30
Speaker 2
But they.
01:29:30
Speaker 2
Just need to release that.
01:29:31
Speaker 3
2nd merchants.