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00:00:00 Speaker 3
Just a couple questions before we kick off again.
00:00:02 Speaker 3
So first what I told you before, it’s bad.
00:00:04 Speaker 3
Bich o’clock.
00:00:05 Speaker 3
OK.
00:00:05 Speaker 3
It’s 6:30 I’ve been through alot stacks right now, but I’m still.
00:00:09 Speaker 3
Sorry, OK.
00:00:10 Speaker 3
Does everybody back up?
00:00:11 Speaker 3
In the building proxy.
00:00:12 Speaker 4
It’s been a minute.
00:00:13 Speaker 4
Tell me.
00:00:13 Speaker 4
How you’re yelling.
00:00:15 Speaker 4
’cause, I’m about.
00:00:16 Speaker 3
To get into my feeling, tight you on?
00:00:17 Speaker 3
Taxation right now.
00:00:19 Speaker 1
What language are you speaking right now?
00:00:22 Speaker 1
We called him Bob Sapp.
00:00:25 Speaker 1
You might remember where you had.
00:00:27 Speaker 3
At your 50th.
00:00:32 Speaker 3
And she’s saying.
00:00:35 Speaker 4
And you’re.
00:00:37 Speaker 3
Dancing too.
00:00:43 Speaker 3
Let’s start executing the instant Frank was right when he said something that we just think this right.
00:00:45 Speaker 2
Why is this right?
00:00:48 Speaker 3
We have to edit it later since it’s because I am.
00:00:52 Speaker 3
But kicking back by power, I listened therapy the other day and they told me to take.
00:00:56 Speaker 3
Back my stylistic traits.
00:00:57 Speaker 4
It’s different.
00:00:58 Speaker 1
But he apparently reads the comments section because he knew Freeburg that you won the episode last.
00:01:02 Speaker 3
Oh, big, big grapefruit.
00:01:03 Speaker 1
Time was, I agree with I thought you did a great job.
00:01:06 Speaker 3
We speak freeburg.
00:01:08 Speaker 3
I honestly do not like the competitive nature of the show.
00:01:12 Speaker 3
I think it makes us all hate each other and it’s not a good dynamic.
00:01:14 Speaker 3
We should just ******* do this show with each other, I know.
00:01:17 Speaker 3
But the point is that your.
00:01:19 Speaker 3
Performance after I threatened to fire Shell has gone up.
00:01:22 Speaker 3
You know who also doesn’t like the competitive nature?
00:01:24 Speaker 3
Jake out.
00:01:25 Speaker 3
’cause he’s losing.
00:01:27 Speaker 3
Yeah, totally.
00:01:28 Speaker 3
The fact that I’m even still here.
00:01:29 Speaker 1
Yes, this winning flat out Jacob thinks he can blend the fire Freeburg it’s.
00:01:33 Speaker 1
Like the gander at Staples Center.
00:01:35 Speaker 1
Think he’s gonna fire LeBron ’cause he played poorly in a.
00:01:38 Speaker 1
Game a month.
00:01:38 Speaker 3
This is a motivational technique.
00:01:40 Speaker 3
I got the best out of him.
00:01:42 Speaker 3
I’m like Michael Jordan.
00:01:43 Speaker 3
He’s my dentist.
00:01:44 Speaker 3
Rather like the hot.
00:01:45 Speaker 1
Dog dealer.
00:01:45 Speaker 1
OK, pal.
00:01:46 Speaker 1
He’s like her bond, James.
00:01:47 Speaker 1
Or the hot dog.
00:01:48 Speaker 1
Do not instruct these.
00:01:50 Speaker 2
2nd letter winners live.
00:01:56 Speaker 3
Here is that.
00:01:59 Speaker 3
Second all right, everybody, welcome to the all in pod with us again, dear.
00:02:12 Speaker 3
This free bird took a break from playing his stray video cat game sack this year in his deposition, apparently.
00:02:20 Speaker 3
Thomas is trolling.
00:02:20 Speaker 1
All right.
00:02:20 Speaker 1
You guys want it?
00:02:24 Speaker 3
Jacob was apparently playing no comment today on the subpoenas, so I will open the show.
00:02:30 Speaker 3
I will open the show by asking David Stacks.
00:02:32 Speaker 3
Would you like to tell us about what?
00:02:33 Speaker 1
You’re holding in your hands.
00:02:34 Speaker 1
OK, so I got this subpoena from Twitter.
00:02:37 Speaker 1
This is a non party subpoena for.
00:02:40 Speaker 4
Didn’t Twitter subpoena your tweet?
00:02:43 Speaker 1
Let me get to that, Mr Peanut.
00:02:46 Speaker 3
I thought the public.
00:02:48 Speaker 2
They are.
00:02:50 Speaker 1
These movements have washed out lift in building number, probably $2000.00 an hour to subpoena tweets or a.
00:02:55 Speaker 1
Public hearing earlier.
00:02:57 Speaker 1
Brilliant strategy, but this is called a subpoena for production of business records in an action pending outside California.
00:03:03 Speaker 2
Right.
00:03:03 Speaker 1
So I’m not a party to the last Lisa not suing me ’cause I have no involvement in.
00:03:07 Speaker 1
This thing but they sent me.
00:03:09 Speaker 1
The broadest ever.
00:03:11 Speaker 1
Subpoena is like 30 pages of requests and now I gotta hire a lawyer to go watch.
00:03:18 Speaker 1
This thing ’cause.
00:03:18 Speaker 1
They basically want any of my communications with any of my friends over the last six months.
00:03:23 Speaker 1
It’s insane.
00:03:24 Speaker 3
Zach, can you just explain to the audience and to us like this is of course sanctioned subpoena, the court is basically allowing the lawyers to demand that you hand over these communications, is that right?
00:03:35 Speaker 1
Yeah, but I haven’t had a chance to fight it yet.
00:03:38 Speaker 1
So now, at my own expense, I gotta hire a lawyer and go somewhere to fight it, because this is a ridiculous, overbroad subpoena.
00:03:45 Speaker 1
And by the way, I’m not even involved in this thing.
00:03:47 Speaker 1
I’m just a comment or on Twitter.
00:03:49 Speaker 1
I don’t have any.
00:03:51 Speaker 1
Need to say.
00:03:52 Speaker 1
Walks out lips a lot of time.
00:03:54 Speaker 1
Right now, I’m not in possession of nonpublic information about this.
00:03:58 Speaker 1
And, you know, the craziest thing is, yeah, like you mentioned, they cite my teeth as a as an exhibit here and they say they want.
00:04:10 Speaker 1
All documents and communications concerning your statement in a tweet dated April 16th that the quote new Twitter CEO Checklist includes eliminate all bots and fire useless employees.
00:04:22 Speaker 1
50% question Mark. So obviously it is like that, your statement in a tweet dated April 25th. Crazy thought.
00:04:29 Speaker 1
What exact masterminded this whole thing?
00:04:32 Speaker 1
Your statement in a tweet dated July 18th.
00:04:35 Speaker 1
That quote, randomly sampling 100 accounts a day, is not a serious F.
00:04:40 Speaker 1
And or your statements in any other tweet concerning the merger, blah blah.
00:04:44 Speaker 1
Let me just save them time.
00:04:45 Speaker 1
Right now I don’t have documents and communications concerning my tweets.
00:04:50 Speaker 1
Now I know to a lawyer at Lock tell Lipton that looking at my tweet and how brilliant they are, you make sense that I have extensive.
00:04:59 Speaker 1
Documentations and source material for them.
00:05:02 Speaker 1
Let me tell you what happened.
00:05:04 Speaker 1
I went to go take a shared and I disconnected off the costs and that’s how that tweet ended up in the public records.
00:05:10 Speaker 1
There are no documents.
00:05:12 Speaker 1
Instance concerning my tweets and this idea that somehow.
00:05:16 Speaker 1
I guess what they’re trying.
00:05:16 Speaker 1
To get at is.
00:05:17 Speaker 1
That somehow I was tweeting.
00:05:19 Speaker 1
On behalf of someone or at someone’s?
00:05:21 Speaker 1
Behest not true.
00:05:23 Speaker 1
Go look well before this year at my public teeth and blogs about the topic of free speech.
00:05:30 Speaker 1
I’ve been a critic of Twitters for a long time on the.
00:05:32 Speaker 1
Issue of free speech I’ve written.
00:05:35 Speaker 1
A A content moderation part.
00:05:38 Speaker 1
I’ve written about what I think a content moderation policy for a social network that.
00:05:42 Speaker 1
Cares about free speech should be.
00:05:43 Speaker 1
You know, I’ve written all these posts on medium going back years.
00:05:47 Speaker 1
Now, you know there’s a critic of Twitter storing Donald Trump off the platform.
00:05:51 Speaker 1
So these views that I publicly.
00:05:53 Speaker 1
Stated are the reason I say that is.
00:05:55 Speaker 1
This is my views and this is nothing more nefarious or something behind them other than that.
00:06:01 Speaker 1
And they’re just I.
00:06:02 Speaker 1
Think they’re just trying.
00:06:02 Speaker 1
To chase it there, that’s there is no there.
00:06:05 Speaker 1
There, right?
00:06:06 Speaker 1
So we just save everyone a lot of time.
00:06:07 Speaker 3
Exactly, you and I can.
00:06:09 Speaker 3
Talk with our.
00:06:11 Speaker 3
Have no comments on this.
00:06:12 Speaker 3
But question about picture, during this movement that you had and you composed to tweet, is there any documentation of the movement?
00:06:20 Speaker 1
No, but you know next time that I.
00:06:22 Speaker 1
Compose a tree.
00:06:23 Speaker 1
On machine I will document it’s early and.
00:06:25 Speaker 1
I will sense the words.
00:06:26 Speaker 1
I want that lifted.
00:06:28 Speaker 3
Like what happens if?
00:06:29 Speaker 3
You don’t respond in 20 days.
00:06:31 Speaker 1
I don’t know.
00:06:32 Speaker 1
I mean, I got a.
00:06:33 Speaker 1
I mean, now I’ve hired a lawyer.
00:06:34 Speaker 1
But by the way, just so people understand.
00:06:36 Speaker 1
You you may.
00:06:36 Speaker 1
Think that because of my position in business or something that these.
00:06:39 Speaker 1
Things happen all the time.
00:06:40 Speaker 1
They don’t.
00:06:41 Speaker 1
I’ve been maybe subpoenaed like three times in my entire career and though and I’ve never been subpoenaed in my capacity as an individual, it’s always been in connection with a company and.
00:06:51 Speaker 1
I don’t think I’ve got one of these.
00:06:53 Speaker 1
In over five years.
00:06:54 Speaker 1
So this just does not happen that.
00:06:55 Speaker 1
Often, and these guys are totally chasing it’s fraud.
00:06:58 Speaker 1
And it leads me to believe that they’re wasting my time and Twitter money.
00:07:03 Speaker 3
At that point.
00:07:03 Speaker 1
So somebody at Twitter shouldn’t rain in their lawyers, because they were, I’m sure, racking up a fortune in legal fees.
00:07:04 Speaker 3
Right.
00:07:09 Speaker 3
It sounds like that’s the case is that they’re trying to make that Elon used his network of friends to help wash away the deal.
00:07:18 Speaker 3
But he didn’t like the price anymore.
00:07:20 Speaker 3
Or and had his friends, you know, kind of tweet about bots and other stuff to support his case for killing the deal because you don’t like the price and they’re going to keep us any communications that he specifically said he didn’t like the price.
00:07:32 Speaker 1
Yeah, I mean, like, they they all, in addition to my tweets and all my documents and correspondence related to my appearance on Megyn Kelly, my appearance from the Will Cain podcast, and, you know, other media parents that I.
00:07:43 Speaker 1
Look, you know I had.
00:07:45 Speaker 1
No coordination with Elon before appearing on any of those shows.
00:07:48 Speaker 1
I just went.
00:07:48 Speaker 1
On those shows and said.
00:07:49 Speaker 1
What I think?
00:07:50 Speaker 3
I mean, look.
00:07:51 Speaker 1
It’s not like I’m a guy who doesn’t have hot takes every single week on various issues.
00:07:56 Speaker 1
You know we do that.
00:07:57 Speaker 1
We’ve been doing this podcast for years.
00:07:59 Speaker 1
I’ve been tweeting for years.
00:08:01 Speaker 1
I’m just, uh, commentator on this.
00:08:03 Speaker 1
I have never been in possession of nonpublic information, and I treated my takes based on the public information that’s been available about this dispute.
00:08:14 Speaker 1
Now, you know, after I appeared, for example, on wilkhahn, I remember Ellen tweeted in support of my appearance.
00:08:20 Speaker 1
But there was no coordination before I appeared.
00:08:23 Speaker 1
Or after for that.
00:08:24 Speaker 1
Matter he does like.
00:08:25 Speaker 1
The appearance, yeah.
00:08:26 Speaker 1
So it’s just me spouting off, doing what I’ve been doing on this pod and tweeting for years.
00:08:31 Speaker 1
Now I can understand if maybe.
00:08:33 Speaker 1
They’re trying to read.
00:08:34 Speaker 1
Something into it.
00:08:34 Speaker 1
They’re on a fishing expedition.
00:08:36 Speaker 1
But I just can’t view it through this.
00:08:37 Speaker 3
I do think.
00:08:37 Speaker 3
The whole thing is just such an enormous waste of time.
00:08:41 Speaker 3
Just get into court, adjudicates the fans, and move on.
00:08:46 Speaker 3
I was reading yesterday this guy who follows the Delaware court pretty closely.
00:08:50 Speaker 3
He had a bunch of commentaries and is he mimics some of the stuff or the judge apparently on the case said some stuff about preserving the integrity of the court, meaning that the interpretation people are making is that ultimately they don’t want to the court.
00:09:06 Speaker 3
Is unlikely to find force the merger because if the merger then doesn’t get consummated, it damages the reputation of the Court’s ability to make and fortunate action.
00:09:16 Speaker 3
Therefore, it’s more likely that they just.
00:09:18 Speaker 3
Impose a fine.
00:09:19 Speaker 3
But what is?
00:09:19 Speaker 3
The enforcement action is I don’t, I don’t know.
00:09:22 Speaker 3
We should ask somebody who is in that.
00:09:25 Speaker 3
Noble and want to.
00:09:26 Speaker 4
Right.
00:09:26 Speaker 3
Buy quarter, but what does that mean for us?
00:09:28 Speaker 1
I don’t know about that.
00:09:30 Speaker 1
OK?
00:09:30 Speaker 1
All I know is that this discovery request is overly broad.
00:09:33 Speaker 1
It’s a fishing expedition.
00:09:35 Speaker 1
It’s harassment of me.
00:09:36 Speaker 1
It’s going to cost me time and money to get rid of this thing.
00:09:40 Speaker 1
I didn’t do anything to deserve it or process.
00:09:42 Speaker 1
I wasn’t part of the transaction, I just.
00:09:45 Speaker 1
And I’ve never, I’ve never and.
00:09:47 Speaker 1
I’ve never said anything in.
00:09:48 Speaker 1
Regards to the transaction, that should lead anyone to believe that I’m in possession of nonpublic information, yeah.
00:09:55 Speaker 3
So this is.
00:09:56 Speaker 1
The last minute.
00:09:56 Speaker 1
Punitive and the fact that there’s fighting my tweets in which I criticize Twitter management, it’s just petty and vindictive.
00:10:04 Speaker 3
Yeah, I agree.
00:10:06 Speaker 3
Look here, legalized.
00:10:06 Speaker 2
Let’s see.
00:10:08 Speaker 1
It’s probably not.
00:10:09 Speaker 3
Oh look, look, NO55 or six years ago I approached Twitter.
00:10:15 Speaker 3
About what I.
00:10:16 Speaker 3
Would have called a friendly activist myself dinner.
00:10:20 Speaker 3
And another large fund. And the reality is there is a lot of data that fits in the public domain that you can use to get a very clear view of Twitter’s advantages and disadvantages.
00:10:26 Speaker 4
Right.
00:10:34 Speaker 3
And so, you know, all of these issues that Twitter is dealing with has been known for a long time.
00:10:40 Speaker 3
People that spent any time analyzing this thoughts comparing it.
00:10:44 Speaker 3
To other social.
00:10:44 Speaker 3
Media stocks.
00:10:46 Speaker 3
So I just don’t understand what all of this is about at the end of the day.
00:10:50 Speaker 3
A person.
00:10:52 Speaker 3
That had a point of view.
00:10:55 Speaker 3
Has changed their minds. Get.
00:10:57 Speaker 3
To the bottom of what that person thinks, but going on these broad fishing expedition, I think it’s just really stupid.
00:11:03 Speaker 1
And then what was Joel on sale subpoenas for, I mean?
00:11:06 Speaker 1
He just appeared.
00:11:07 Speaker 3
As for being at the always summit?
00:11:08 Speaker 1
For being a guest with the old ones from it.
00:11:10 Speaker 1
So that just shows you how silly this is too, because Elon region interview the four of us interviewed Elon at the all in summit in Miami back in was it May is when do we do that very bad.
00:11:22 Speaker 3
Yeah, yeah.
00:11:24 Speaker 1
So Elon appeared, but he dialed in by zoom.
00:11:28 Speaker 1
It’s not like he was walking around the hallways, bumping into people and talking like there was.
00:11:32 Speaker 1
He did not communicate with anybody else at the.
00:11:34 Speaker 3
Summit, you know he was.
00:11:36 Speaker 1
A guest by Zoom.
00:11:37 Speaker 1
So if you want to.
00:11:38 Speaker 1
Know the communications that we had to still watch that public recording.
00:11:43 Speaker 1
Of us having Elon, there’s.
00:11:45 Speaker 1
This again, there’s there’s no need for this.
00:11:47 Speaker 1
Fishing albinism ’cause this is the.
00:11:50 Speaker 3
This is the record for the longest amount.
00:11:51 Speaker 3
Of time in his life.
00:11:53 Speaker 3
Jacob has not.
00:11:53 Speaker 3
Spoken so I want to I want to acknowledge this moment and we can move forward.
00:12:00 Speaker 3
Fact, did you do any prep work for the interview with Elon while you were?
00:12:05 Speaker 3
Oh no.
00:12:06 Speaker 3
Scenic mode.
00:12:06 Speaker 1
No, no, there’s no prep work.
00:12:08 Speaker 3
Showed up.
00:12:10 Speaker 3
I barely showed up early, so.
00:12:12 Speaker 1
You guys remember?
00:12:16 Speaker 3
You guys still want to do all in summer 2022? Come on 23 comma after that.
00:12:20 Speaker 4
We just.
00:12:21 Speaker 1
Yeah, exactly.
00:12:22 Speaker 1
Why do I need another one?
00:12:23 Speaker 2
Second, I actually want to have.
00:12:26 Speaker 3
Free bird stands.
00:12:27 Speaker 3
Create an event honoring him, and I’m going to appear there.
00:12:31 Speaker 3
Absolutely something that science.
00:12:32 Speaker 3
Can actually I should really thank you, Jake.
00:12:36 Speaker 1
So I was researching this for my thank you.
00:12:38 Speaker 1
So first I blame Twitter executives that I blame you.
00:12:42 Speaker 3
I think you could put listen if we do another all in summit maybe it’s.
00:12:47 Speaker 3
And we could take legal bill.
00:12:49 Speaker 3
Can I can I just say like as a user just says it uses OK the the bot issue is really real like.
00:12:57 Speaker 3
How many accounts?
00:12:59 Speaker 3
Are there, which have like 20 or 30 followers?
00:13:02 Speaker 3
That’s just few vitriol, either positive or negative.
00:13:06 Speaker 3
Constantly every time you tweet anything, it makes tweeting impossible.
00:13:10 Speaker 3
I used to be an artist user of Twitter.
00:13:12 Speaker 3
And I think in the last year it has become exceptionally unusual well.
00:13:18 Speaker 3
Airbases fix they should fix that problem. It in fairness the fact he did pay $10 per account to have those screens.
00:13:27 Speaker 3
Draw your reply.
00:13:28 Speaker 3
But it is true if you I always screenshot it.
00:13:30 Speaker 3
I look at who’s like trolling in.
00:13:32 Speaker 3
Replies and inevitably it is.
00:13:35 Speaker 3
A6 month old account with just following 100 people and has no followers or five followers and it.
00:13:41 Speaker 3
Has like.
00:13:42 Speaker 3
Some you know.
00:13:44 Speaker 3
But I mean it’s like.
00:13:45 Speaker 3
We planned the end of the name every.
00:13:47 Speaker 3
Time you say something.
00:13:48 Speaker 3
Every time I say something, it’s like every other comment is out of stock.
00:13:52 Speaker 3
It’s about the crypto.
00:13:53
Oh yeah.
00:13:53 Speaker 3
Thing that they want you to click on and so you know this, last month I started to experiment with turning comma.
00:13:59 Speaker 4
Well, and.
00:14:00 Speaker 4
It’s been the.
00:14:01 Speaker 3
Best because I can still communicate out.
00:14:04 Speaker 3
It gets the same reach.
00:14:05 Speaker 3
Millions of people will see what I have to say, but I don’t have to deal with all of the other people that follow me theoretically for useful information.
00:14:07 Speaker 2
Right.
00:14:12 Speaker 3
Don’t have to deal with all the ******** that comes with it.
00:14:14 Speaker 3
Yeah, but you’d also test inside.
00:14:14 Speaker 3
A real problem on that platform.
00:14:19 Speaker 4
That needs to.
00:14:20 Speaker 3
Get fixed.
00:14:20 Speaker 3
So here’s the thing.
00:14:22 Speaker 3
It’s easily fixable because if you go to LinkedIn or Facebook or Instagram you don’t see this.
00:14:28 Speaker 3
So if it’s if the other platforms can figure it out across many different companies, it’s not like there’s some secret sauce here.
00:14:34 Speaker 3
You just have to put up, you know a couple of reasonable gates and have some reasonable reporting and you take a little friction out and people will not be able to create bots on.
00:14:44 Speaker 1
Yeah, I noticed that problem.
00:14:45 Speaker 1
You know, in the.
00:14:46 Speaker 1
Early days of the.
00:14:47 Speaker 1
Ukrainian war when I would.
00:14:48 Speaker 1
Tweet out my opinion on my contrarian opinions, my non consensus opinions on the Ukraine war.
00:14:53 Speaker 2
You get.
00:14:54 Speaker 3
I thought, Oh yeah, that’s awesome.
00:14:55 Speaker 2
He wasn’t my dad it.
00:14:56 Speaker 1
Was ruthless and.
00:14:56 Speaker 3
But those are not real people.
00:14:58 Speaker 3
Those are not readable.
00:14:58 Speaker 2
Well, yeah.
00:14:59 Speaker 3
Those are Al Gore.
00:15:01 Speaker 1
Yeah, when you would go click on those accounts, you would see that they were accounts created that month.
00:15:06 Speaker 1
Yeah, 0 followers, 0 following.
00:15:10 Speaker 1
And they were brand new accounts without any history and they were.
00:15:14 Speaker 1
All tweeting the.
00:15:14 Speaker 1
Same thing accusing me of being double Chamberlain.
00:15:17 Speaker 1
It was all just, you know, Putin talking points or whatever.
00:15:20 Speaker 1
So there you know.
00:15:21 Speaker 1
I think particularly when you speak out against the current thing, there’s.
00:15:26 Speaker 1
Yeah, you know, an organized effort to try and.
00:15:28 Speaker 1
Drown you out.
00:15:29 Speaker 1
And but let’s the Washington Post has a story about this that Ukraine was really good at.
00:15:32 Speaker 1
What they.
00:15:33 Speaker 1
Called strategic communications.
00:15:36 Speaker 1
Yeah, we used to call that propaganda, but in any.
00:15:38 Speaker 1
Event yeah, I.
00:15:38 Speaker 1
Mean look, there is absolutely a problem there.
00:15:41 Speaker 3
It’s not a playbook if you.
00:15:42 Speaker 3
I don’t know if you guys saw the Zack Snyder re cut of Justice League.
00:15:47 Speaker 3
Supposedly there were bot armies that put the pressure on Warner Brothers to release this cut of that movie.
00:15:54 Speaker 3
And that he might have in some way been involved with the insinuation and it actually drove commerce. They they gave him the whatever thirty $40 million to request.
00:16:02 Speaker 3
So, all right, let’s talk about markets, since that’s what everybody really comes here for.
00:16:07 Speaker 3
Looks like inflation is finally maybe getting a little pushback.
00:16:12 Speaker 3
Gas and oil is way down, a big win for Americans, and obviously the administration there clearly is an upper bound to how much people will pay for a gallon of gasoline.
00:16:20 Speaker 3
Consumption is actually going down, which is.
00:16:24 Speaker 3
Humans pretty adaptable their jobs, and we talked about this every month as we watch it.
00:16:30 Speaker 3
It finally dipped under 11 million asacs predicted.
00:16:33 Speaker 3
You know, we’re going to shed 3 or 400,000 jobs it seems every month, which should take this, you know, 1011 million number over the next year down to maybe five or six, which would still be.
00:16:44 Speaker 3
An unbelievable number still put up that very robust full input.
00:16:49 Speaker 3
Which has been a discussion.
00:16:50 Speaker 1
Well, also there’s a number of open jobs.
00:16:53 Speaker 1
The number of job racks, it went down by something like half a million.
00:16:56 Speaker 1
In one month.
00:16:57 Speaker 3
Yeah. And it’s been going down 3 or 400. So it’s it’s kind of been pretty consistent, but there’s clearly something going on here.
00:17:07 Speaker 3
The stock market, interestingly, we started to see a little bump here, even crypto, which the most speculative of all assets I guess.
00:17:17 Speaker 3
Bitcoin bounced as well, you know, hitting 2223 now, so.
00:17:23 Speaker 3
What do you think trauma about markets?
00:17:26 Speaker 3
You you may have called the bottom here on the program a couple of months ago and I started J trading three weeks ago based on our discussions here, thinking we’re bouncing along.
00:17:36 Speaker 3
The bottom is a headfake right now, I think, at the time.
00:17:39 Speaker 3
Initially I think I said, you know.
00:17:43 Speaker 3
It rallies to around 4000.
00:17:45 Speaker 3
I was a little off.
00:17:47 Speaker 3
Route what rallies support us.
00:17:49 Speaker 3
They are something, yeah.
00:17:52 Speaker 3
Probably just the 42143 hundred.
00:17:56 Speaker 3
Look, it’s always important trading at 4150 today, just yeah, it’s always important from my perspective to just take the other side and just intellectually debate with oneself why the other side could be right.
00:18:09 Speaker 3
So in at this point right now what people would say is OK, but that’s going to capitulate at the beginning part of 2023.
00:18:17 Speaker 3
We have a pretty clear forecast for all the rating.
00:18:19 Speaker 3
Pieces that have to happen.
00:18:22 Speaker 3
Everybody is doing the work that’s necessary, either raising prices, cutting costs or doing both, letting people go, et cetera, et cetera.
00:18:29 Speaker 3
So maybe we’re we’re there.
00:18:32 Speaker 3
OK.
00:18:32 Speaker 3
So what’s the other side of that?
00:18:35 Speaker 3
I think again, as I stated before, the other side starts with energy.
00:18:41 Speaker 3
And the reason why I think it’s important is that it really is the conflation of an economic system and a political system using an instrument.
00:18:50 Speaker 3
And if you look inside of what’s happening in Europe?
00:18:54 Speaker 3
There’s a lot of complexity here that I think needs to get unpacked.
00:18:57 Speaker 3
So for example.
00:18:59 Speaker 3
Couple days ago, the French Government basically said the Third Point is to start producing less nuclear energy.
00:19:06 Speaker 3
And you say, well, why would they do that?
00:19:08 Speaker 3
Well, it turns out because, you know, the temperatures are so high.
00:19:12 Speaker 3
You cannot use the water or to pull these nuclear reactors because the the exiting water is since so hot.
00:19:19 Speaker 3
That would actually destroy the ecosystem of the lakes and rivers that they use to feed natural freshwater into pull the nuclear reactor.
00:19:29 Speaker 3
Because it’s so hot, all the rivers are below their natural levels.
00:19:34 Speaker 3
Barges that carry colon that gas are getting stuck on the venue.
00:19:39 Speaker 3
But pole, which is the longest river in Italy that’s deep all the fields.
00:19:43 Speaker 3
Actually can’t is below the level where it can actually off, you know, offload the water so farmers can’t basically do what they need to do to produce the food supplies.
00:19:51 Speaker 3
So if you play all.
00:19:53 Speaker 3
Of that out.
00:19:55 Speaker 3
You start to see an issue where by, you know, October, November of this year, we’re back into the same complexity where energy is the tip of the sphere around which everybody starts to debate all of the national security issues that we have to deal with, the Ukraine war, etc, cetera.
00:20:13 Speaker 3
So I don’t know, I mean, you know.
00:20:16 Speaker 3
You’ve made a lot of money this year by basically doing the following, which is the exact opposite of everybody else when everybody else is freaking out.
00:20:24 Speaker 3
As you bought you a tomato farmer.
00:20:26 Speaker 3
Now everybody likes it’s over.
00:20:28 Speaker 4
And you can tell that by.
00:20:29 Speaker 3
Looking at the VIX, which is the volatility index.
00:20:32 Speaker 3
We’re about to get into the.
00:20:33 Speaker 4
High teens, you’re systematically.
00:20:38 Speaker 4
Who that when the fix is in the teams?
00:20:42 Speaker 3
You tend to basically buy volatility, which is essentially ejection of socks and when the fix is in the 30s dissented.
00:20:50 Speaker 3
Basically, sell volatility when you buy equities reviews at the bottom.
00:20:53 Speaker 3
If you can do that for the last year you’ve made a tournament.
00:20:55 Speaker 3
So there you have it.
00:20:57 Speaker 3
I really don’t know what’s going to happen from here, but I think that these things still.
00:21:01 Speaker 3
Have to get a lot worse to.
00:21:02 Speaker 3
Flush everything through the system and people run out of.
00:21:04 Speaker 3
X is the ticker symbol that you can look up yourself for. The CBOE volatility index measures the stock market’s expectation of volatility based on the S&P indexes options.
00:21:17 Speaker 3
If you look.
00:21:18 Speaker 3
At oil facts, we are now down to 87 bucks for a barrel.
00:21:24 Speaker 3
Haven’t been here since gosh, looks like.
00:21:29 Speaker 3
Yeah, February maybe.
00:21:32 Speaker 3
And so and gas prices plummeting, something going well in this regard what are?
00:21:38 Speaker 1
Your thoughts, yeah, I mean it’s the that particular commodities coming down.
00:21:43 Speaker 1
I still think you have a big inflation problem looking so I I guess production stepping up I mean response higher prices people increase production and the.
00:21:45 Speaker 3
Why do you think it’s?
00:21:46 Speaker 3
Going down.
00:21:53 Speaker 3
No, no, no, no.
00:21:54 Speaker 3
There’s less than the, the, the crazy fast thing about this whole thing was fighting was that book that came back and they basically said.
00:22:00 Speaker 4
He can increase.
00:22:01 Speaker 3
Like 600,000 barrels a day.
00:22:03 Speaker 3
But the only two countries that are able to do it where I think Kuwait and Saudi, and the total number of barrels is about 100,000. So with all the bluster and all of this stuff.
00:22:11 Speaker 1
Yeah, you’re right.
00:22:12 Speaker 1
You’re you’re right actually it’s it’s it’s because the interest rate increases are actually having an effect, right.
00:22:13 Speaker 3
There’s no surprise.
00:22:17 Speaker 1
You know these rate increases are like chemotherapy, you know, it’s on the economy.
00:22:22 Speaker 3
The gas demand is.
00:22:22 Speaker 2
Go figure.
00:22:23 Speaker 4
Lower than the summer of 2020, in the middle of the panda.
00:22:27 Speaker 1
Yeah, I mean, yeah, you’re right.
00:22:27 Speaker 4
United States.
00:22:28 Speaker 1
So the commodity prices are reflecting expectations that the economy is slowing down and and you know maybe in a recession supply.
00:22:35 Speaker 3
So supply, supply modestly up, demand massively down equals, hey, we want to get people to buy this commodity that will lower the prices.
00:22:44 Speaker 3
But lo and behold, the same thing is happening a little bit with groceries, and we’ll see what happens with.
00:22:48 Speaker 3
Travel homes also spectacularly falling down in price.
00:22:53 Speaker 3
And the inventory spiking as.
00:22:55 Speaker 3
Well, so what’s your know?
00:22:56 Speaker 3
Your take here impacting 75 basis point increase in the chemotherapy that you were going down that Rd.
00:23:01 Speaker 1
Well, we just speak to this, this, this rally in the market for a second ’cause.
00:23:05 Speaker 1
I think it was a really interesting chart that Philippe.
00:23:07 Speaker 1
Lafon showed at.
00:23:08 Speaker 1
That coach you submit that we talked about on the spot a few months ago and let’s put on the screen I put in the chat, what it basically shows is that.
00:23:18 Speaker 1
Is that during, you know, protracted bear markets, you can still get substantial bear market rallies and so during the 2000 2001.com crash, you had these plus 32% + 41% + 45% rallies. But.
00:23:36 Speaker 1
Even while the market as a whole was going to.
00:23:39 Speaker 1
And so they ended up being sort of soccer rallies.
00:23:42 Speaker 1
Now, I don’t know if that is what’s happening here, but it is a possibility.
00:23:47 Speaker 3
One interpretation facts of this could be people are picking the winning stocks while the losers continue to lose and back with causing this, you know, jagged edge or the dead countdown, dead cat bouncing.
00:23:47 Speaker 1
Roger conditions.
00:23:59 Speaker 3
As I say, which is what we’re seeing in a lot of public companies, right?
00:24:00 Speaker 1
For most things.
00:24:03 Speaker 3
If you’re watching the Uber, you know, obviously I’m still a big.
00:24:05 Speaker 3
Shareholder had a.
00:24:06 Speaker 3
Massive print and other companies have been doing equally as well, Apple included.
00:24:11 Speaker 1
I think two things happened last week.
00:24:12 Speaker 1
One is there were a number of companies that reported good earnings and I think even more importantly had strong forecasts.
00:24:19 Speaker 1
So that helped and I think it was just there.
00:24:21 Speaker 1
Was so much.
00:24:22 Speaker 1
Pessimism and negativity that.
00:24:24 Speaker 1
Just companies reporting decreases that weren’t as bad as you were expecting.
00:24:29 Speaker 1
Created some room to move up, but.
00:24:32 Speaker 1
The other thing that.
00:24:33 Speaker 1
That drives a rally.
00:24:34 Speaker 1
Is that the Fed made these comments on the heels of that?
00:24:36 Speaker 1
75 basis point rate increase that we were close to neutral and so the market seems to get really optimistic that.
00:24:45 Speaker 1
We wouldn’t get.
00:24:46 Speaker 1
Much more in the way of rate increases, maybe there’d be a 50 basis point rate increase towards the end of the year, which would bring the Fed funds rate up to about the two year bond rate.
00:24:58 Speaker 1
So the idea was we’re close to neutral and markets really reacted to that.
00:25:01 Speaker 1
The thing about that is though that.
00:25:04 Speaker 1
I think what the what Powell and what the Fed says today about race is way less important than what the inflation data will actually show in a few months.
00:25:14 Speaker 1
If we still.
00:25:15 Speaker 1
Have 9% inflation 3 months from now, then I don’t think the rate increases are done so at the end of the day.
00:25:23 Speaker 1
I think that the.
00:25:24 Speaker 1
Daily here is gonna be a lot more important than what the Fed says, because certainly the Fed has been a lot of things over the past couple years that turned out not to be true.
00:25:31 Speaker 3
If you would agree, they seem to be doing something correctly with the 75 deaths you know, and taking it a little.
00:25:38 Speaker 3
Seriously, it’s having more impact.
00:25:40 Speaker 3
I’ll say it again.
00:25:41 Speaker 3
I said it now finds problem we’ve never seen.
00:25:44 Speaker 3
A moment in.
00:25:44 Speaker 3
History in American history where when CPI has printed successively above 5%.
00:25:52 Speaker 3
That it got under 5% without Fed funds getting to Lansing.
00:25:57 Speaker 3
So we should all hope that this is the exception that proves the rule, but there is an enormous amount of data.
00:26:04 Speaker 3
That would tell you that we have to take rates to double what the equilibrium rate is thought.
00:26:11 Speaker 3
To be right.
00:26:12 Speaker 3
There was no print in August. They take the month of August off, they could do an emergency print, and then they’re expecting 50 or 75 deaths in September. If they do, that stacks Schreiber.
00:26:21 Speaker 1
So I guess 50, I think 50 is the expectation for September.
00:26:24 Speaker 1
But look, I think it’s appropriate now after all the rate increase they’ve done to take up.
00:26:28 Speaker 1
’cause they’re going to.
00:26:29 Speaker 1
Get 2 full months now of inflation data before the September.
00:26:33 Speaker 1
Fed meeting I.
00:26:34 Speaker 1
Think it’s appropriate to digest?
00:26:35 Speaker 1
Let the economy digest these.
00:26:37 Speaker 1
Rate increases and.
00:26:37 Speaker 1
See where we’re at?
00:26:39 Speaker 1
And let’s see where the next two months inflation print is and.
00:26:43 Speaker 1
Then that’ll determine what happens.
00:26:44 Speaker 3
Next freeburg.
00:26:45 Speaker 3
Based on all this, what’s your outlook?
00:26:48 Speaker 3
For the economy, I think there’s more.
00:26:52 Speaker 3
We all try and be predicted based on the current set of conditions in the war.
00:26:58 Speaker 3
And there are a number of conditions in the world that the switch could flip very quickly, and there’s enough of those.
00:27:08 Speaker 3
Triggering events right now that the probability of anyone or any set of them happening in the next couple of months is probably pretty high.
00:27:18 Speaker 3
You know, I kind of talked about it on this show a few weeks ago, that it’s like a monk, their tortoise to.
00:27:22 Speaker 3
Sticking their head out of this shell, and you know there’s a few.
00:27:26 Speaker 3
That might pop out here.
00:27:29 Speaker 3
A massive problem with getting gas to Western Europe for this winter.
00:27:36 Speaker 3
There is an emerging problem with food insecurity in Africa, South Asia, around the world.
00:27:43 Speaker 3
There is obviously continuing escalating conflicts in Eastern Europe.
00:27:49 Speaker 3
This NATO situation may or may not help.
00:27:52 Speaker 3
The Taiwan visit may or may not help.
00:27:53 Speaker 3
It there’s a number, yeah.
00:27:55 Speaker 2
Well, I think.
00:27:57 Speaker 3
So Sweden and whatnot joining NATO is.
00:28:00
OK.
00:28:01 Speaker 3
It’s going to be viewed as Provoca Tori.
00:28:04 Speaker 3
And you know it.
00:28:06 Speaker 3
It could not make things cooler and calmer over there, but make them more tests.
00:28:11 Speaker 3
I mean, we view it as a security issue, but it really is a conflict escalation issue.
00:28:16 Speaker 3
And and then I think that there are emerging markets problems, you know Argentina is facing 60% inflation, Brazil.
00:28:24 Speaker 3
Has a criminal as their President right now, and he has said publicly in the last couple of days that he will not leave office if he loses the election ’cause the election is closed.
00:28:34 Speaker 3
And if that happens, then you could see massive civil unrest.
00:28:37 Speaker 3
He’s been encouraging the population of results to go to the streets and fight back, and there are a number of these flashpoints.
00:28:43 Speaker 3
And by the way, that’s a massive.
00:28:46 Speaker 3
You know food supplier as well as a map of holding in EM credit portfolios around the world. U.S. consumer Credit is a problem.
00:28:56 Speaker 3
You know, we just had the largest number of new credit card accounts open since 2008 in Q2 from the New York Fed report yesterday.
00:29:05 Speaker 3
All of these things I’m painting as pictures of potential flashpoints for what would could quickly become wildfires or brush fires that spread very quickly in markets and could escalate some of the considerations.
00:29:17 Speaker 3
So I don’t feel like I look around and say everything is good, we’re in a good place.
00:29:22 Speaker 3
There are some indications that.
00:29:24 Speaker 3
Some of these taxation airy considerations and concerns we may have had in the way that markets are behaving right now gives us the pause, gives us a rest.
00:29:31 Speaker 3
It makes us feel OK.
00:29:33 Speaker 3
But there are also a lot of things that could go wrong, and any one of those things could be a triggering point.
00:29:39 Speaker 3
So I always think in terms of probability.
00:29:41 Speaker 3
There’s a whole.
00:29:41 Speaker 3
Bunch of low probability things.
00:29:43 Speaker 3
But when you have enough low probability things, the probability that something in the set is triggered becomes five.
00:29:49 Speaker 3
That’s where I kind of say look the probability of something being a flash.
00:29:53 Speaker 3
Points for us this year is high.
00:29:55 Speaker 3
I also still think that globally we are very primed for conflict right now and we feel like and are hoping that the Russian Ukraine thing resolves.
00:30:03 Speaker 3
But there are other points of escalation.
00:30:05 Speaker 3
Look at that.
00:30:05 Speaker 3
Something with Pelosi visiting Taiwan, everyone that’s you know, even well informed, is scratching their heads saying what the heck?
00:30:11 Speaker 3
Is going on here.
00:30:13 Speaker 3
There is currently an indulgence in conflict and I think that that indulgence will, you know, cause more harm than good, particularly for these financial markets that we’re promising on right now in the months ahead so.
00:30:26 Speaker 3
Look, you know, like I’ve always said, I’m not going to be one to time markets.
00:30:30 Speaker 3
There’s like tronics time, social behavior, like who’s going to stay?
00:30:33 Speaker 3
In some words, first, I don’t know the answer.
00:30:35 Speaker 3
In a population of people, you know, you can kind of get some people get paid, but markets or the output, the manifestation of social.
00:30:42 Speaker 3
Here and so timing markets is very difficult.
00:30:45 Speaker 3
I think you can do a good job analyzing businesses and the quality of businesses and how they will perform over time.
00:30:50 Speaker 3
I don’t think that anyone over time can do a big job timing markets, and I think that there’s a lot of these things that could really shift.
00:30:56 Speaker 3
Anyone perspective on what you believe right now very rapidly in another direction based on any one of these?
00:31:03 Speaker 3
So what do you feel the world is Doctor Doom here?
00:31:08 Speaker 3
He’s setting.
00:31:09 Speaker 3
By the way, I’m not being negative.
00:31:10 Speaker 3
I’m just pointing out that there are another set.
00:31:12 Speaker 3
Of things that could put things the other way.
00:31:13 Speaker 4
Right, we land here.
00:31:13 Speaker 3
So, being slightly suspicious here, but you paint a pretty picture of, hey, there’s all these tipping points around the world should not do you feel like this is how the world works?
00:31:23 Speaker 3
Always a bunch of potential tipping.
00:31:24 Speaker 3
Points is always going.
00:31:25 Speaker 3
To be worse, sadly, and there’s always going to be countries that are dealing with dictators or insolvency, especially in frontier markets and emerging markets.
00:31:35 Speaker 3
Or is this chaos?
00:31:38 Speaker 3
You know, really acute and people should be, you know, anxious and kind of, I mean, both of you guys are right.
00:31:46 Speaker 3
Like there’s always stuff going on in markets and it represents the collective family.
00:31:52 Speaker 3
Our wishes and expectations are not also the realities.
00:31:55 Speaker 3
This is why, I think, for me at least, the way that I process this information is not trying to have an opinion on any one of those things, because I just.
00:32:02 Speaker 3
I find it too hard.
00:32:05 Speaker 3
And I don’t.
00:32:06 Speaker 3
Have enough steps of understanding of any?
00:32:07 Speaker 4
Of those things.
00:32:08 Speaker 3
For me, I’d rather go back to the historical trends because those I find a little bit easier to parse.
00:32:16 Speaker 3
Whether any of those things are true and shooting sensation right now or not.
00:32:22 Speaker 3
Each way sensation would would would would just crash.
00:32:27 Speaker 3
Oh, OK, no problem.
00:32:28 Speaker 3
I it’s just a little, yeah, I can’t hear you.
00:32:30 Speaker 3
No problem.
00:32:31 Speaker 3
The second helicopter is replacing the first helicopter because of a fuel leak issue on the first.
00:32:36 Speaker 3
Helicopters are switching on the.
00:32:38 Speaker 3
Helipad, so I mean.
00:32:39 Speaker 3
It takes a change of heart.
00:32:41 Speaker 3
But I will be honest.
00:32:42 Speaker 3
OK, so they’re truncated.
00:32:44 Speaker 3
Yeah, so they will never listen.
00:32:46 Speaker 3
So the the real problem is that like.
00:32:50 Speaker 3
If I go back to the historical artifacts, have there been issues in the past the way that you know, Rebirth describes?
00:32:54 Speaker 2
Pretty good.
00:32:59 Speaker 3
So This is why I think you can look at the practice whenever there is inflation and whenever it spikes.
00:33:03 Speaker 3
This is what has had to happen by the Fed is you have to take rates above that keen 5% threshold when CPS above 5% to break enough demand so that the economy who test.
00:33:17 Speaker 3
And I think that’s where we are. So instead of trying to figure out where they’re, you know, I mean the building as an example that that 3% is crazy like he basically, you know, he said publicly in the press release.
00:33:29 Speaker 3
The army is on my side and it’s ready to help me, you know, keep insane guns and just the crazy thing.
00:33:34 Speaker 4
So what are?
00:33:35 Speaker 3
You supposed to do with fighters need to take summer.
00:33:37 Speaker 3
Street So what do you what are you supposed to be reminding him?
00:33:40 Speaker 3
Like, you know what?
00:33:41 Speaker 3
A version of Brazil has happened before.
00:33:44 Speaker 3
I don’t know.
00:33:44 Speaker 3
Enough history, quite honest.
00:33:46 Speaker 3
You know the specifics of what happened then and how bad translation now, and I don’t want to spend the time understanding what’s going to happen in Brazil.
00:33:52 Speaker 3
Right now I’d rather just stay.
00:33:53 Speaker 3
There are 20 or 30 things I could very much complicate the world economy.
00:33:59 Speaker 3
I think the reality is that.
00:34:01 Speaker 3
Governments need to flush all this excess.
00:34:04 Speaker 3
Money out of the system.
00:34:06 Speaker 3
So that we can really find out what equilibrium demand is and.
00:34:09 Speaker 3
Get back to.
00:34:10 Speaker 3
There’s also, by the way, a really important friendship mark, unlike.
00:34:15 Speaker 3
But I think it’s playing out and will play out for the next decade on Deglobalization. So as the US tries to build its own semiconductor manufacturing capacity, as China loses key trade partners, as all of these markets stop trading with each other and start to build redundancies, there was a massive longer range.
00:34:36 Speaker 3
Economic effects of globalization globalization enables efficient pricing.
00:34:41 Speaker 3
It enables labor and energy and everything to be done, you know?
00:34:45 Speaker 3
To go to.
00:34:46 Speaker 3
The cheapest source?
00:34:47 Speaker 3
That’s the way globalization has benefited.
00:34:48 Speaker 3
Plus, we’ve been able to get cheap energy and cheap labor in overseas markets to do work for us, and as a result we’ve gotten access to cheap products.
00:34:57 Speaker 3
So when you D globalize, you end up having to pay more for labor, more for energy.
00:35:01 Speaker 3
You have to build infrastructure and the price for everything goes up.
00:35:04 Speaker 3
We send this on the pods for two years now, that era.
00:35:08 Speaker 3
A cheaper, faster, better is over.
00:35:11 Speaker 3
And what comes with that is better national security, but the cost of that better national security is higher prices higher, not gross.
00:35:21 Speaker 3
And there’s nothing that we can do to avoid that.
00:35:23 Speaker 3
I’m not sure I agree with the less gross.
00:35:24 Speaker 2
It’s like.
00:35:25 Speaker 3
I actually think that there’s enough access flax to be absorbed by all of its free money that I think you can still have some team growth, but it will come with higher interest rates and higher inflation and higher input costs.
00:35:37 Speaker 3
Everybody will have to do their part.
00:35:39 Speaker 4
Good job.
00:35:40 Speaker 2
OK.
00:35:41 Speaker 3
But that’s what’s going to happen and I think we should just deal with the medicine as quickly as possible.
00:35:46 Speaker 3
This is why the people that ask you think there’s defensive receiving free aggressive injectors global with quickly I suspect on the margins are right.
00:35:52 Speaker 3
The problem is they don’t want to look at the historical artifacts because they sort bothered by police. Say wait, I need to raise interest rates by another 250 basis points. Such installations destructors.
00:36:01 Speaker 3
What the world is ready to fear right now, so we’re going to incrementally.
00:36:06 Speaker 3
Plot along and I think what Feedbooks says is right, which is that there’s going to be a lockable that emerges best in its filter markets.
00:36:12 Speaker 3
Then the consumer credit scene will implode, basket open markets.
00:36:15 Speaker 3
Then Jair Bolsonaro will try to take over Brazil, battle total markets and will go back to this inner inflationary, fragmented, key globalized view.
00:36:26 Speaker 3
But just frankly, take higher interest rates, normalize, alright.
00:36:29 Speaker 3
In sacks, I’ll bring you on this.
00:36:30 Speaker 3
I mean chapter 2 free Bush points, the the counter obviously would be, hey, we will have less dependency on dictators like Putin, gene pairings, merge, etc.
00:36:42 Speaker 3
And that would be great for humanity.
00:36:43 Speaker 3
And we have resiliency in our supply chain and.
00:36:47 Speaker 3
You know the.
00:36:47 Speaker 3
West now becoming unified, say what you will about the NATO membership and the timing of it.
00:36:54 Speaker 3
It’s probably a great thing that the West is saying, hey, we’re going to get together as a group.
00:36:59 Speaker 3
I think we would agree and stand against dictators invading other countries and if everybody pays their fair share to be part of NATO.
00:37:06 Speaker 3
Which that’s not just military service that someone.
00:37:09 Speaker 3
It’s different. Well, I mean.
00:37:10 Speaker 3
That is how we be intellectually honest.
00:37:12 Speaker 3
Say every.
00:37:13 Speaker 3
Day, we all said that.
00:37:15 Speaker 3
And nobody talked about that second part and the only person who either was in such a hurry who’s, you know, not exactly my.
00:37:22 Speaker 3
Favorite person in the.
00:37:23 Speaker 3
World, but maybe stressful for comment.
00:37:24 Speaker 4
Was the only one.
00:37:26 Speaker 3
That actually said, which is probably the first thing we’re chasing.
00:37:28 Speaker 3
You are saying is part of the deal.
00:37:30 Speaker 3
That is not purpose, so it should be part of the deal.
00:37:32 Speaker 3
I’m taking strictly for the deal.
00:37:33 Speaker 3
As for people who’ve missed what we said there.
00:37:35 Speaker 3
The United States spent 3 1/2% of our GDP on military. Other places in NATO might be spending one or 2%, and we’re trying to get them all to 2% to be a little closer to us.
00:37:46 Speaker 3
And then this obviously trip to Taiwan, strengthening our relationship with that country.
00:37:51 Speaker 3
But at what cost and why are we doing it?
00:37:53 Speaker 3
Now all come into play here.
00:37:55 Speaker 3
So do you want to think that this trip sometime around our Chief RingCentral relationship with timeline?
00:37:59 Speaker 4
Did he come out?
00:38:00 Speaker 3
What is your first?
00:38:00 Speaker 4
With a fracture.
00:38:01 Speaker 3
It is all of a sudden fade.
00:38:02 Speaker 4
It will start with that.
00:38:05 Speaker 3
In what way, I’m sure, well, because they are, I mean, did you not see their statements and giving Pelosi awards and they are not very much wants to strengthen their relationship with the West?
00:38:15 Speaker 3
That that is their goal, they want to strengthen that they want the protection of the left.
00:38:19 Speaker 3
So yes.
00:38:20 Speaker 3
Prices are the hold on, hold on, hold on limited it just strengthen our relationship, which I want.
00:38:21 Speaker 4
Of course needed.
00:38:25 Speaker 3
The question is judges provoke China and was it necessary at this point in time in history when the world does feel like it’s a little bit of.
00:38:32 Speaker 3
A powder.
00:38:32 Speaker 3
No, but those six months from now when all the fruits and vegetables that have been embargoed and not censored timeworn and then the stand that allows them to make chips continues from how slow do you think that they’ll still be positive about the trip?
00:38:44 Speaker 3
Well, see, I mean, let’s sort of fast, he likes to comment on.
00:38:47 Speaker 3
This thing so I.
00:38:48 Speaker 2
All right, well.
00:38:48 Speaker 3
I to break fast.
00:38:49 Speaker 1
I want to dismantle everything you just said.
00:38:51 Speaker 3
I know, I that’s why.
00:38:52 Speaker 3
I set you up for.
00:38:52 Speaker 1
Sample entry I mean look once it came out.
00:38:55 Speaker 1
That Pelosi was.
00:38:56 Speaker 1
Doing the Taiwan and China threatened her. And the US saying you.
00:39:00 Speaker 1
Can’t go, obviously.
00:39:02 Speaker 1
We couldn’t back down from that because we can’t.
00:39:04 Speaker 1
Let China dictate which of our.
00:39:07 Speaker 1
Officials can go to.
00:39:08 Speaker 1
I want. So at that point we had to back her play, and you saw that everybody from Fox News to 25 Republican senators got on board.
00:39:16 Speaker 1
OK, but here’s the issue.
00:39:18 Speaker 1
The real issue is should she even have been going?
00:39:21 Speaker 1
I think this trip was self indulgent.
00:39:24 Speaker 1
It was reckless, she was told by the Biden administration.
00:39:28 Speaker 1
Don’t go.
00:39:28 Speaker 1
This is not the right time.
00:39:30 Speaker 1
This is a sensitive time the the seeked at their party conference in the next couple of months.
00:39:36 Speaker 1
There was no reason to basically provoke this showdown right now and she just dismissed.
00:39:42 Speaker 1
What the administration was bored Biden and what the Pentagon told her to do because she wants to make some sort of valedictory tour to Taiwan.
00:39:50 Speaker 1
So look, Nancy Pelosi does not deserve any credit for this threat.
00:39:56 Speaker 3
Did we have?
00:39:57 Speaker 1
To defend her once, you know, once.
00:39:59 Speaker 1
Trying to threaten her?
00:40:00 Speaker 1
Yes, of course we have.
00:40:01 Speaker 1
To like I said.
00:40:02 Speaker 1
Soccer play.
00:40:03 Speaker 1
But this was reckless and it was self indulgent and it didn’t mean to happen.
00:40:07 Speaker 1
And you know it.
00:40:08 Speaker 1
Really makes you wonder who is calling the shots in this administration when Pelosi won’t even respect the wishes of the President in her own party.
00:40:17 Speaker 1
And what is she doing going over there?
00:40:19 Speaker 1
She’s not the Secretary of State.
00:40:20 Speaker 3
I had the same question.
00:40:20 Speaker 1
He’s not that far.
00:40:22 Speaker 3
Had some questions like why now?
00:40:25 Speaker 1
Well, because it’s all about her making this valedictory tour before she’s going to hand over the gavel, but the Democrats going to lose the house in November.
00:40:34 Speaker 1
Once she passes the gavel to a new Republican speaker of the House, I think she’ll be announcing a retirement shortly after that.
00:40:41 Speaker 1
So this is all part of her farewell tour.
00:40:45 Speaker 1
But it didn’t need to happen.
00:40:46 Speaker 1
And the fact that she did it.
00:40:49 Speaker 1
In violation of the wishes of President of her own party.
00:40:52 Speaker 1
Makes you wonder who’s calling the shots over there.
00:40:55 Speaker 1
And it kind of remind me.
00:40:56 Speaker 1
You know, a few weeks ago, Gavin Newsom was over at the White House when Vine was over in.
00:41:01 Speaker 1
Europe and everyone.
00:41:03 Speaker 1
Was speculating what’s.
00:41:03 Speaker 1
He doing over there?
00:41:04 Speaker 1
Is he measuring the grapes phase, measuring the drinks?
00:41:04 Speaker 3
Moving in.
00:41:07 Speaker 1
And so you know.
00:41:08 Speaker 1
It just goes to show.
00:41:09 Speaker 1
Is did this administration have control?
00:41:12 Speaker 1
Over anything over the members of their own.
00:41:13 Speaker 1
Party over 60.
00:41:15 Speaker 1
Percent of Democrats.
00:41:15 Speaker 1
Say they want someone different to run in 24. So yes, it was a surface level.
00:41:22 Speaker 1
Of consensus and backing of Pelosi.
00:41:25 Speaker 1
But if you scratch beneath the surface, you see that the trip was unnecessary, and reason reveals.
00:41:30 Speaker 1
A president who doesn’t seem.
00:41:32 Speaker 1
Completely in control of our foreign policy.
00:41:33 Speaker 3
So in a statement, almost universally, the leadership of the Republican Party said for decades, members of the youth.
00:41:40 Speaker 3
The United States Congress, including previous speakers of the House, have traveled to Taiwan.
00:41:44 Speaker 3
This travel is consistent with the United States one China policy to which we are committed.
00:41:48 Speaker 3
We are also committed, now more than ever to all elements of the Taiwan Relations Act.
00:41:55 Speaker 3
So one sign that you don’t know is that Taiwan and.
00:41:57 Speaker 3
China or park?
00:41:58 Speaker 3
One unified entity.
00:42:01 Speaker 3
So were the Republicans seem to be supporting this in a cynical way, you’re saying, or it is consistent that other members of the United States Congress have?
00:42:10 Speaker 3
Gone, including other.
00:42:10 Speaker 1
No, I mean I think, I think there is bipartisan support now to defend Taiwan.
00:42:11 Speaker 3
Sectors of the House.
00:42:15 Speaker 1
I actually think that that is in the cards.
00:42:17 Speaker 1
I think there is a very high.
00:42:19 Speaker 1
By probability that we actually end up in a war with China.
00:42:24 Speaker 1
Owens this century?
00:42:25 Speaker 1
Oh yeah, I I didn’t try to launch the biggest flash point in the world.
00:42:26 Speaker 3
Don’t think so.
00:42:26 Speaker 3
Have so much upstairs.
00:42:29 Speaker 3
I would agree with.
00:42:30 Speaker 3
So explain why you think there’s going to be a war, because I think a lot of people think there’s way too much to think here for there to be a war.
00:42:36 Speaker 3
So there’s going to be some sort.
00:42:37 Speaker 3
Of negotiated settlement in the South China City.
00:42:40 Speaker 3
So why would you think you look for majority cases, there’s going to be a warrior?
00:42:41 Speaker 1
There’s no ways.
00:42:44 Speaker 1
You have to look at it first of all. From the Chinese point of view, they view Taiwan as sacred territory and for decades now they have said in every single meeting, diplomatic meeting with the US. Taiwan is always their number one issue. They are hell bent on the reunification of mainland China with Taiwan.
00:42:58 Speaker 3
In recent history, rush.
00:43:03 Speaker 1
And they would like to do it.
00:43:05 Speaker 1
Peacefully, through coercion if they can, but I think they will do it militarily if they must.
00:43:10 Speaker 1
And the only question is when they feel that they will be strong enough to basically take the island by force.
00:43:16 Speaker 1
So that’s I think the Chinese point of view and I think America is increasingly.
00:43:21 Speaker 1
Committed to the.
00:43:22 Speaker 1
Defence of Taiwan.
00:43:23 Speaker 1
So, you know, we have controversy statements on this.
00:43:26 Speaker 1
So the one China policy says that.
00:43:30 Speaker 1
We respect that there’s one China, but on the other hand, the Taiwan Relations Act commits us to help in the defence of Python, so we have a conservation policy on this.
00:43:41 Speaker 2
But if you ever want.
00:43:42 Speaker 3
And by the way, as does Sasha degree trying to experts on this and it’s only the last 100 years that they’ve really considered Taiwan strategic.
00:43:49 Speaker 3
They didn’t care about it 2.
00:43:50 Speaker 3
Or 300 years ago, they were kind.
00:43:52 Speaker 3
Of like this?
00:43:52 Speaker 3
Is worthless.
00:43:52 Speaker 3
You guys do what you want.
00:43:53 Speaker 1
That says high wall. Taiwan was part of China until 1895, when Japan took.
00:43:58 Speaker 1
It from them, yes.
00:43:59 Speaker 1
They as in.
00:44:00 Speaker 3
We didn’t want it at that time.
00:44:01 Speaker 3
That’s the other thing.
00:44:02 Speaker 3
They were like, this is worthless real estate.
00:44:03 Speaker 3
Don’t care, so means well.
00:44:04 Speaker 1
No, that’s not true.
00:44:05 Speaker 1
I want Taiwan is extremely important surgically.
00:44:09 Speaker 1
If not, understand why I think you need to.
00:44:11 Speaker 1
Look at this map.
00:44:13 Speaker 3
No, I haven’t read up on that. And it’s really interesting. It is a really interesting discussion ’cause 200 years where they didn’t care and then all of a sudden they’re like, wait a second, we’re going to be worse with the West and Japan is going to be a democracy.
00:44:13 Speaker 1
Don’t think we should pull that up actually.
00:44:24 Speaker 3
We do actually have something.
00:44:25 Speaker 1
At stake here, we’d like that island back.
00:44:27 Speaker 1
The island chewing strategy was originally created by John Foster Dulles this.
00:44:32 Speaker 1
One of the secondary spades, I think, under Eisenhower, who was one of the initial architects of our containment policy against Soviet Union, but also came with this idea of how we would contain China in East Asia.
00:44:44 Speaker 1
And the basic idea is that China is surrounded by a series of island chains, the 1st.
00:44:50 Speaker 1
Jane goes down from the southern tip of Japan to Okinawa to Taiwan to I think there’s some islands in the South China Sea of the Spratly Islands.
00:44:59 Speaker 1
It’s got the northwest tip of the Philippines.
00:45:02 Speaker 1
That’s the first island chain.
00:45:04 Speaker 1
Second Island chain goes out to the eastern part of the Philippines.
00:45:07 Speaker 3
Vietnam is.
00:45:09 Speaker 1
No Vietnam.
00:45:10 Speaker 1
All the way down and reach.
00:45:11 Speaker 3
Oh yeah.
00:45:12 Speaker 3
Actually sending signals.
00:45:12 Speaker 1
So I think it’s second Island chain includes.
00:45:15 Speaker 1
You know, goes down to Indonesia, and then I think there’s even a third island chain that includes llamado.
00:45:20 Speaker 1
Guam actually might be in the second somewhere.
00:45:23 Speaker 1
It’s somewhere around there.
00:45:24 Speaker 1
It’s a heavily fortified American base.
00:45:26 Speaker 1
So the idea is if you want to bottle up and contain China, you do it by controlling these island chains, and Taiwan is really the central one.
00:45:36 Speaker 1
Sort of divides this East China Sea.
00:45:39 Speaker 1
Where you’ve got South Korea and Japan from the South China Sea.
00:45:42 Speaker 1
Where you’ve got Vietnam and Malaysia, Brunei.
00:45:44 Speaker 3
Should we just entertain Vietnam in Japan? It’s literally if you were to draw a central line of China’s coastal access, that example.
00:45:51 Speaker 1
So, so the bottom line is this.
00:45:53 Speaker 1
If you want to pursue a policy of containment against China, you really want to control these island chains.
00:45:59 Speaker 1
Another way to think about it is that these islands are unsinkable aircraft carriers.
00:46:06 Speaker 1
They allow America to project Power 6000 miles away into Pacific. That’s how we saw during War Two as we had all these island hopping battles and as we took these islands, they would then become a runway for the next stage of Project American power to get all the way to to Japan. So you know, if you believe.
00:46:24 Speaker 1
That we’re headed for where we already are in Cold War two with China, and I think we are.
00:46:31 Speaker 1
I think China is really this geopolitical threat, not Russia.
00:46:33 Speaker 4
Anyway it.
00:46:33 Speaker 3
Always ask me.
00:46:36 Speaker 1
The way that you would contain China, as you’ve been balled up, is to have these islands in the American alliance.
00:46:42 Speaker 1
We very hard for China, which is now building a huge blue water Navy, has actually more ships in the United States.
00:46:48 Speaker 1
So it’s very hard for them to project their power all over the world if they are contained a balled up and have to wash their own.
00:46:55 Speaker 3
What one note on the number of ships so fast is you know they they have a lot of small ships the tonnage wise we have much more time engine if you were to look you know even the the perfect setup as you explain to these islands is very similar to NATO and the what’s happening with Russia.
00:46:55 Speaker 1
Bats in ending.
00:46:57 Speaker 1
In East Asia.
00:47:12 Speaker 3
You know, we have Korea, we have Japan, we have Vietnam, the Philippines.
00:47:17 Speaker 3
We have an incredible.
00:47:18 Speaker 3
Alliance in this area.
00:47:20 Speaker 3
And that’s a great thing for America.
00:47:22 Speaker 3
And Taiwan obviously is a jump ball here, but this is a set up for China, you know, having Jason, what do you think about the repercussions of her visit?
00:47:32 Speaker 3
So kvell, which is Tesla’s biggest battery supplier, basically will delay the announcement of a factory. It’s not clear whether they’re going to put it into the United States. They may actually take the city in Mexico.
00:47:45 Speaker 3
But what the decision that?
00:47:46 Speaker 3
Was supposed to happen, now is.
00:47:47 Speaker 3
Now been delayed in both assemble.
00:47:48 Speaker 3
October, there’s a bunch of, you know, there’s all of these crazy military drills that happened was.
00:47:53 Speaker 3
It all those.
00:47:54 Speaker 3
Things, I mean, that is.
00:47:55 Speaker 3
The question and I’m asking right now, yeah.
00:47:59 Speaker 3
We don’t have enough information, I think, to know what why this was done now is was it last offer.
00:48:03 Speaker 1
With their priests, usually there is worship.
00:48:04 Speaker 3
Hold on, hold on, he asked me.
00:48:05 Speaker 3
A question. Let me finish.
00:48:06 Speaker 3
Is is it a freelance and nasty post?
00:48:09 Speaker 3
Is completely fairness or is there a bigger strategy?
00:48:12 Speaker 3
Here is the question, is China Week now?
00:48:14 Speaker 3
Are we trying to send a message to them?
00:48:17 Speaker 3
And one could equally take the side of the argument that the United States supporting Finland, supporting screens and supporting NATO.
00:48:26 Speaker 3
You know, supporting the Ukraine and supporting the Pacific is actually the right move here to contain the dictators.
00:48:32 Speaker 2
Who wants this?
00:48:32 Speaker 3
I agree.
00:48:33 Speaker 3
But we have a I agree, but we have two people to do.
00:48:35 Speaker 3
That the President and the Secretary.
00:48:37 Speaker 3
Well, that would be a much bigger provocation, I think is the issue.
00:48:40 Speaker 3
So if you sent the President, that would be a.
00:48:42 Speaker 3
Very big provocation.
00:48:43 Speaker 3
The Thomas Friedman Articles of task branches yet was pretty explicit but, you know, blinking and Biden both shoulder please stand down.
00:48:52 Speaker 3
Yeah, the NSC and the Joint Chiefs said.
00:48:55 Speaker 3
Please stand down.
00:48:57 Speaker 3
You are way over your.
00:48:58 Speaker 3
Pieces here.
00:48:58 Speaker 3
I agree, I agree.
00:49:00 Speaker 3
I I I’ve been very public.
00:49:02 Speaker 3
What is the point of?
00:49:03 Speaker 3
Doing this now.
00:49:04 Speaker 3
Is the question and we don’t have this.
00:49:06 Speaker 1
Once China tried to dictate to Pelosi.
00:49:09 Speaker 1
That she couldn’t.
00:49:10 Speaker 1
Of course we had to back her play, but you have to be kind of a fool to fall for this in the first place.
00:49:15 Speaker 1
This was self indulgent by Pelosi.
00:49:17 Speaker 1
She didn’t need to pick this battle.
00:49:18 Speaker 1
The administration at astronaut too.
00:49:20 Speaker 1
And look major binds some credit here.
00:49:22 Speaker 1
Biden has the right policy on Taiwan which would stated.
00:49:26 Speaker 1
This way he says that we support the status quo.
00:49:29 Speaker 1
And we are against unilateral changes to the status quo.
00:49:32 Speaker 1
We want the United States to be a status quo power with respect to Taiwan, and forced times be the revisionist power.
00:49:38 Speaker 1
And we need to be very careful that we do not come across as a revisionist power that would give China an excuse.
00:49:45 Speaker 1
So we want to just maintain the status quo and actually our policy.
00:49:49 Speaker 3
Alright, I’m ready.
00:49:49 Speaker 3
We’ll see you next time.
00:49:50 Speaker 3
On the island pod.
00:49:51 Speaker 3
Bye bye.
00:49:53 Speaker 1
You know, like your winter.
00:49:56 Speaker 3
Here is that.
00:50:00 Speaker 1
And I said we open source system.
00:50:02 Speaker 1
Machines and they could not crazy.
00:50:04 Speaker 2
Right.
00:50:04 Speaker 2
Well, I don’t know.
00:50:14 Speaker 2
Our parents.
00:50:14 Speaker 1
Old person.
00:50:25 Speaker 3
Having one big Georgie, but they’re also snitches.
00:50:28 Speaker 3
It’s like sexual tension, that.
00:50:28 Speaker 2
Second, you’re being wet.
00:50:29 Speaker 3
Previously she released.
00:50:34 Speaker 2
Well here face.
00:50:37 Speaker 3
Merges are bad.