Video File
Audio File
Full Transcripts
00:00:00
Speaker 1
I’m in a very Daniel Plainview.
00:00:01
Speaker 1
Mood this week the there.
00:00:03
Speaker 1
I have a competition in me.
00:00:05
Speaker 1
I don’t want to see other people succeed.
00:00:07
Speaker 1
The third best thing ever.
00:00:08
Speaker 1
You are the furthest from that character.
00:00:12
Speaker 1
Like that is not your spirit animal.
00:00:13
Speaker 1
There will be blood.
00:00:14
Speaker 1
That guy.
00:00:15
Speaker 3
Daniel Day Lewis.
00:00:15
Speaker 3
He’s not.
00:00:17
Speaker 1
I’ve watched it after time.
00:00:19
Speaker 1
You must be so stormy and world on.
00:00:23
Speaker 1
The inside.
00:00:24
Speaker 1
There’s a lot of catch up.
00:00:24
Speaker
Gosh, I mean like.
00:00:26
Speaker 1
You not see my roast.
00:00:27
Speaker 1
That’s access, but then it’s just that I not see.
00:00:29
Speaker
It I lived it it.
00:00:30
Speaker 1
Was the most off color discussing egregious me?
00:00:35
Speaker 1
Diatribe I’ve ever heard, my Lord a helper competition in me.
00:00:39
Speaker 1
Don’t like to see others succeed, I.
00:00:42
Speaker 1
And then she tells me.
00:00:55
Speaker 4
Open source, close to the fans.
00:00:59
Speaker 1
Second guess everybody wants to know chemaf you’ve wound down to sacks.
00:01:08
Speaker 1
Thank you for doing this for IPL specifically because people are replying to me every day asking what are you going to stack.
00:01:16
Speaker 3
But I POD&F the.
00:01:18
Speaker 1
Money has been returned to investors now.
00:01:20
Speaker 1
As it’s going going to be returned.
00:01:22
Speaker 1
Going to be returned to investors.
00:01:23
Speaker 1
Thank you. And Bill Ackman, of course. He wound down his stack, returning 4 billions over 500 stacks out there looking for deals. Tell us why this decision?
00:01:34
Speaker 1
Well, I I’ve raised 10 stacks, 66 in technology and form biotechnology and I’ve done 6 deals, 2 intact and two in biotech.
00:01:44
Speaker 1
4.0, sorry for tech crunch time. Thank you. Into biotech.
00:01:49
Speaker 1
So the reason to shut it down is pretty.
00:01:51
Speaker 1
Straightforward, it’s like.
00:01:53
Speaker 1
You know, when we launched these things, the stock market was in a much different place than it is today and so over the last two years at looking at deals.
00:02:02
Speaker 1
It’s gotten harder and harder to find a good risk reward.
00:02:06
Speaker 1
Why is that?
00:02:07
Speaker 1
Well, that’s the thing with the stock is you do a deal today, but it doesn’t usually close for six or seven months in the future.
00:02:15
Speaker 1
And so you have to do a deal where you have a really good sense that in six or seven months when the deal is.
00:02:22
Speaker 1
Comes to close.
00:02:23
Speaker 1
That the price.
00:02:24
Speaker 1
Will be the same.
00:02:26
Speaker 1
Or even higher.
00:02:27
Speaker 1
Than it is today.
00:02:29
Speaker 1
And if it isn’t all of the investors that.
00:02:32
Speaker 1
You’ve brought along.
00:02:33
Speaker 1
In this pack have a right to redeem, which is that they they file a notice that says you can complete the deal.
00:02:39
Speaker 1
But I want.
00:02:40
Speaker 1
My money back and what they get back is the initial $10 that they used to buy the stock in the 1st place ’cause when we spoke. When we started this past week, we sold stock at $10.
00:02:50
Speaker 1
And so from my perspective, I was looking at this and I’m like, you know, this is a super volatile, ugly point in the market.
00:02:57
Speaker 1
This last year has been really problematic.
00:02:58
Speaker 1
I and I and I kind of said this last November and then we can, we can play the clip after and we can come back to it.
00:03:05
Speaker 1
But basically my.
00:03:06
Speaker 1
Decision was that.
00:03:08
Speaker 1
At this point, to do a deal would probably.
00:03:11
Speaker 1
You know, put a lot.
00:03:11
Speaker 1
Of capital at risk and.
00:03:15
Speaker 1
In all of these deals, I’m typically investing $100 million at least in each of them, and so I couldn’t justify that.
00:03:21
Speaker 1
I couldn’t see a good risk reward, and I thought the right thing to do, the responsible thing to do, was just, uh, widely seen found.
00:03:27
Speaker 1
You know, I’ll lose, I don’t know, 101520 million bucks for having set these things up, but we gave everybody their money back by $10 and I think that’s.
00:03:35
Speaker 1
Actually better over the next five or six months, then what did you otherwise do if you were invested in the market now?
00:03:40
Speaker 1
That’s the belief.
00:03:41
Speaker 1
That I have.
00:03:43
Speaker 1
But hopefully when people get the $10 back in the next few weeks, if they want, they can go and put that money back in the market.
00:03:49
Speaker 1
And hopefully they’ll do well.
00:03:50
Speaker 1
But you know, from my perspective the risk reward was not good is part of the issue the inventory that’s available of great companies as well?
00:03:58
Speaker 1
That’s one of the things I heard, speculated on CNBC.
00:04:00
Speaker 1
It’s hard to convince a private company to go public.
00:04:03
Speaker 1
Here’s my experience. You know, when I when I was talking to all of these CEO’s of these Silicon Valley companies, initially there was a lot of misunderstanding about web stocks were, and I think we were able to dispel that because we had some really successful transactions.
00:04:17
Speaker 1
Then there was a lot of interest in being a.
00:04:20
Speaker 1
Part of it.
00:04:21
Speaker 1
In this phase we were suffering from 2 very important things.
00:04:24
Speaker 1
One was that valuations were just completely up in the air.
00:04:28
Speaker 1
People had a huge question mark on late stage valuations because we would come in.
00:04:33
Speaker 1
We would do the work and we would say the company is worth X and that number typically was 50 or 60% lower than the last private valuation.
00:04:43
Speaker 1
And so when it came time for us to negotiate, you know, doing the deal, even if the founder was roughly on board, the rest of the board was not because a lot of them would have seen some pretty meaningful markdowns in their private assets and when the company had enough money to kind of like, you know, at least take private.
00:05:03
Speaker 1
For another year or so without having to raise money.
00:05:06
Speaker 1
On balance, those investors felt it was more.
00:05:09
Speaker 1
Prudent for them.
00:05:10
Speaker 1
To not take the mark and to not take the deals at such a lower discount.
00:05:16
Speaker 1
So that was a big issue that we ran into because every time we would price a deal again, we’re trying to create a margin of safety for often our investors again because it’s going to take six to nine months to close.
00:05:26
Speaker 1
Dylan, so ideally you want this situation indigestion and then sorry, the second thing is just volatility.
00:05:27
Speaker
So a lot of value.
00:05:31
Speaker 1
So when you see volatility in the public markets.
00:05:35
Speaker 1
You know for CEO and I can understand this.
00:05:39
Speaker 1
It’s much easier to go public in point where the markets are generally going in One Direction because it gives them the confidence to be able to learn the ropes because it is a complicated process being public and when you introduce tremendous market based volatility independent of your company, I think a lot of CEOs and CFO’s and I are people.
00:05:59
Speaker 1
We’re a little nervous you’ll not take the risk and that was, that was the second piece, but by and away the first one was valuation.
00:06:06
Speaker 1
We could not find market clearing prices makes sense for assets.
00:06:11
Speaker 1
And by the way and and I’ll talk about one company in specific which just this week.
00:06:14
Speaker 1
Had a pretty.
00:06:15
Speaker 1
Public blow up around this solution and look, I’ve been pretty clear about this since November.
00:06:19
Speaker 1
The marginal trade should have been to be trimming risk and maybe you can play the clip because I really want to make sure that it’s it’s very clear and on the record what I.
00:06:27
Speaker 1
Said almost an entirely.
00:06:29
Speaker 1
New ago, let me put crypto in the context of the markets and where we are today at the end.
00:06:34
Speaker 1
The week after, you know, juicy earnings in November of 20.
00:06:38
Speaker 1
21 we have.
00:06:40
Speaker 1
The stock market at absolute all time highs working.
00:06:44
Speaker 1
We have crypto at absolute all time highs working.
00:06:48
Speaker 1
We have the art market setting that you guys filed Phillips and Christies and Sotheby’s this past week at absolute all time highs.
00:06:54
Speaker 1
So even other people for 25 million we have inflation at a 30 year high. We have 10 year breaking things at a 25 year high.
00:07:04
Speaker 1
We have, you know, one point somewhat trillion dollars that we just approved last week and we’re still horse trading.
00:07:10
Speaker 1
Another three, you know, $1.8 trillion of stimulus that we’re going to put in. And I think the the most important thing, which is between those important founders of our generation, the two smartest people who have really consistently long, long lasting Jeff Basals.
00:07:25
Speaker 1
That collectively sold more than $11 billion of their holdings tissue alone.
00:07:30
Speaker 1
And if you can’t take all of that and decide for yourself what’s right for you and your family, you’re doing yourself a disservice.
00:07:37
Speaker 1
I think it’s important for me to never sort of.
00:07:39
Speaker 1
Like, you know.
00:07:40
Speaker 1
Be forced to tell folks whether I’m buying or selling, although I’m willing to do it in moments where I think it’s important.
00:07:47
Speaker 1
But I think it’s really important to understand the context.
00:07:50
Speaker 1
And so I think like these folks that might.
00:07:52
Speaker 1
Think derisively about individuals who are managing risk.
00:07:55
Speaker 1
I think it’s really naive, and I think it’s it creates a lot of missed opportunity for them as well, if the smartest people in the world.
00:08:04
Speaker 1
Are now selling their poor holdings that they told you they would never sell, and you are not reconsidering your position on things.
00:08:14
Speaker 1
You’re either much larger than them or you’re being really, really reckless.
00:08:20
Speaker 1
The reason why I said all of those things.
00:08:23
Speaker 1
Was because I was getting really worried about where we were.
00:08:27
Speaker 1
And then and then I think on the heels of that I published a tweet and I and I said I’m starting to sell.
00:08:34
Speaker 1
You know, and I sold like $100 million of sulfide, but then I was a systematic seller from through the end of last year and through this year.
00:08:43
Speaker 1
To try to manage my own liquidity because it changed profoundly as I saw what was happening.
00:08:47
Speaker 1
In the markets?
00:08:48
Speaker 1
So, you know, I think that it’s just an important thing to call out that things don’t always go up.
00:08:55
Speaker 1
And you have to pay attention to a mosaic of information, and you have to do the work yourself, because you know your situation is unique to you, nobody else understands it, and so you can’t outsource that decision to someone.
00:09:09
Speaker 1
Deals, obviously you can use it as a guide it, you know, it’s fair to say, you know when the 13 apps, those important hedge funds come out.
00:09:16
Speaker 1
Do I leave them, of course, because I’m trying to figure out, you know what don’t I know?
00:09:20
Speaker 1
What may I be missing?
00:09:21
Speaker 1
Maybe there’s a great company in there that I that I should be taking a look at?
00:09:24
Speaker 1
So, you know, I’m not dissimilar to everybody else.
00:09:27
Speaker 1
And then I use other people that I look up to.
00:09:29
Speaker 1
Uh, respect.
00:09:30
Speaker 1
As a leading indicator of what to buy.
00:09:33
Speaker 1
But I still take responsibility for my own decisions and I managed my liquidity as best as I can based on my conditions, and those are always changing.
00:09:41
Speaker 1
And so I think this is just a good reminder that everybody else has to do the same search him up.
00:09:45
Speaker 1
What do you think happens to the remaining 500 every?
00:09:47
Speaker 1
Spec sponsor, friend of.
00:09:49
Speaker 1
Mine that I know is not seeking targets anymore.
00:09:52
Speaker 1
They’re all expecting to wind up and return capital. How many of the 500 you will actually find a target and how many do you think all of remaining specs, how many of them will?
00:10:02
Speaker 1
Wind up and return capital.
00:10:04
Speaker 1
I mean I.
00:10:04
Speaker 1
I think that there’s still some really good deals to do.
00:10:08
Speaker 1
They’re not necessarily in tech person.
00:10:11
Speaker 1
So you know, I think you did a really great deal in AG Tech.
00:10:14
Speaker 1
I think that that’s that’s really interesting.
00:10:15
Speaker 1
So time will tell how that does.
00:10:17
Speaker 1
I think there’s some really interesting deals in energy.
00:10:19
Speaker 1
In fact we spent a lot of time actually pivoting and spending time and.
00:10:23
Speaker 1
Energy looking at.
00:10:24
Speaker 1
You know everything from, you know, producers of Nat gas and oil to, you know, folks that were building terminals to LNG facilities and.
00:10:33
Speaker 1
But it’s just a very different return profile than what we were used to.
00:10:37
Speaker 1
So I think if you can understand some of these other markets and you can underwrite to a different rate of return.
00:10:45
Speaker 1
Some decent deals will get done.
00:10:47
Speaker 1
The overwhelming majority of the tax class, I think, probably will just wind up.
00:10:52
Speaker 1
Some folks will be really focused on trying to.
00:10:57
Speaker 1
You know, monetize their founder promotes, so they’ll do any kind of deal.
00:11:03
Speaker 1
The problem as you see is even whether you do a good deal or a bad deal with the kind of volatility we’re seeing in the market, the likelihood is that it’s going to trade down pretty significantly.
00:11:12
Speaker 1
So I think most will not find a home.
00:11:15
Speaker 1
I think some will find some really interesting targets.
00:11:17
Speaker 1
In what areas like energy I think are really interesting agriculture like what you did.
00:11:22
Speaker 1
Free bird I think is really interesting deal.
00:11:25
Speaker 3
And then you know what?
00:11:26
Speaker 1
It’ll be an opportunity for us to retool the stack.
00:11:30
Speaker 1
I don’t think it’s going to go away.
00:11:32
Speaker 1
I think that it is a useful tool in the toolbox of many tools. So there’s IPO’s, there’s direct listings.
00:11:40
Speaker 1
There’s facts.
00:11:43
Speaker 1
There’s obviously private fundraising.
00:11:45
Speaker 1
There’s convertible, there’s structured deals.
00:11:47
Speaker 1
So created a tool and I think when used properly it can be really helpful, you know, for the company that we worked with.
00:11:54
Speaker 1
It would have been impossible for them to raise the quantums of capital, but they did primary capital from sophisticated hedge funds and mutual funds.
00:12:01
Speaker 1
You know, we raised billions and billions of dollars for companies like so far and open door.
00:12:06
Speaker 1
But I think that that’s going to go a long way for them to achieve their goals.
00:12:08
Speaker 1
So I think it’s going to be a good tool, but we’re going to go through a wash out of most of these folks who are not.
00:12:15
Speaker 1
Going to be.
00:12:15
Speaker 1
Able to successfully find targets stacks with the private companies, especially the late stage ones, you and I.
00:12:20
Speaker 1
Are involved in a number of them.
00:12:23
Speaker 1
They’re doing rifts, they’ve got headwinds and evaluations are underwater in many cases.
00:12:28
Speaker 1
How are they thinking about the public market windows stacked for reckless things or just the traditional media?
00:12:34
Speaker 4
I don’t know what they are thinking about it.
00:12:36
Speaker 4
I just think.
00:12:37
Speaker 4
I think like going public seems like SCLC at this point.
00:12:40
Speaker 4
I think the whole public market exit idea is frozen for two years.
00:12:45
Speaker 5
Two years.
00:12:46
Speaker 4
Yeah, just surprised that people are thinking.
00:12:48
Speaker 1
What are these lastage tempers that raise mega rounds doing to work out valuation issues ’cause those trim off just pointed out with stacks?
00:12:57
Speaker 1
One of the problems was clearing market.
00:12:59
Speaker 1
The late stage investors who came in, maybe they, you know, don’t want to accept the haircut in valuation, even at the half productive.
00:13:04
Speaker 4
We not invest.
00:13:06
Speaker 4
Probably not, unless, I mean, what they’re doing is is using their war chest to grow into their valuations, which is the smart strategy.
00:13:14
Speaker 4
And it’s a really smart to be slashing their burn while they do that.
00:13:19
Speaker 4
But yeah, it’s it’s no different what we’ve talked.
00:13:20
Speaker 4
About before.
00:13:22
Speaker 4
I think the the main significance of this past week is that you had the Fed meeting, it raised another 75 basis points.
00:13:29
Speaker 4
There’s no surprise to that. That was predicted, that was new, was the forecast. They’re now saying that they expect to raise another 1 1/2% just two months ago at the last meeting.
00:13:39
Speaker 4
They were saying 75 at this meeting, plus 50 after that. Now they’re saying 150 after this. So, you know, in just two months there’s things.
00:13:50
Speaker 4
They’re now revised the forecast for an extra 100 basis points of rate increases.
00:13:56
Speaker 4
Because inflation is worsening.
00:13:57
Speaker 4
Thoughts, so things are worse than we thought two months ago.
00:14:02
Speaker 4
But the last inflation print didn’t get better as fast if people wanted.
00:14:06
Speaker 4
We talked about that last week.
00:14:07
Speaker 4
Now the Fed is revising its forecasts.
00:14:09
Speaker 2
Jeffrey is.
00:14:11
Speaker 4
Bad and getting worse and you finally had Powell had thrown in the towel on his rhetoric around soft landing.
00:14:18
Speaker 4
I mean, first it was, well, we can raise race and we won’t have a recession.
00:14:23
Speaker 4
Then it was we might have like a mild recession.
00:14:26
Speaker 4
Now he’s basically saying hard landing.
00:14:28
Speaker 2
If you if you read.
00:14:30
Speaker 2
Do you?
00:14:30
Speaker 4
These FOMC comments, though, I think this is a really bad week for the economy and you’re seeing in the markets this week.
00:14:38
Speaker 4
I mean, we.
00:14:38
Speaker 4
Are retracing almost within 5% of the June lows, with the growth stocks being ones that are hardest hit.
00:14:45
Speaker 1
By the way, Speaking of gross trucks, have you guys been following this?
00:14:49
Speaker 1
Trials and tribulations with by Jews, which is like the one of the largest valued private company, but it’s a private.
00:14:56
Speaker 1
Indian Edtech company.
00:14:59
Speaker 1
Eventually, I think like, you know.
00:15:00
Speaker 1
There was this delayed audit.
00:15:03
Speaker 1
And Deloitte couldn’t certify a bunch of things, and then finally they were able to come up with reports that eventually slowed instead of like, great.
00:15:09
Speaker 1
And even in making money, they lost almost $600 million this year and that a lot of the revenue that they were booking will actually loans to millions of Indian families who have basically 0 probability of.
00:15:22
Speaker 1
Paying them back.
00:15:23
Speaker 1
So a lot of the revenue was not real as well.
00:15:27
Speaker 1
And this is like the who’s who of investors.
00:15:29
Speaker 1
It’s everybody from, you know, Sakura Tiger, UPS, BlackRock, checkerboard.
00:15:35
Speaker 1
It’s incredible.
00:15:37
Speaker 1
I think when the tide goes out we find out right?
00:15:39
Speaker 1
And this is what’s happening with tides out and you can find all the weakness in the system.
00:15:43
Speaker 1
So we’re going to get flushed, I think.
00:15:44
Speaker 1
This is a.
00:15:45
Speaker 1
Bit of an outlier obviously like that.
00:15:46
Speaker 1
I don’t think that.
00:15:47
Speaker 1
You know, all these companies that are worth 10s of billions of dollars are running so close to the sun, but it just goes to show you that.
00:15:54
Speaker 1
You know how the how does.
00:15:59
Speaker 1
How does this happen?
00:15:59
Speaker 1
Like how how do?
00:16:01
Speaker 1
You God get.
00:16:01
Speaker 1
A date for this on the seed stage in Series A, We would ask for a data room.
00:16:06
Speaker 1
The person would say you were the only investor asking for it and you’re putting in, you know, 10% of the round.
00:16:11
Speaker 1
These other people aren’t even asking for others.
00:16:13
Speaker 1
Is that OK?
00:16:14
Speaker 1
Can we still see the data?
00:16:15
Speaker 1
And turned out there wasn’t one.
00:16:16
Speaker 1
People were just making bets that they’re making.
00:16:18
Speaker 1
Why invest?
00:16:19
Speaker 1
They were betting without even looking at their cards or thinking about the other peoples cars and hands.
00:16:23
Speaker 1
Back to what Speedbird was saying before, you know, I think, I think there’s a, there’s a.
00:16:29
Speaker 1
A sliver of the retail investor base that is not dissimilar to a sliver of the private equity and hedge fund and venture capital space, which is these folks are not willing to do the work.
00:16:39
Speaker 1
I think most people are, and most people want to come to their own conclusions, but some people want to just take the easy momentum driven decision and they typically always get punished.
00:16:48
Speaker 1
Over time, there’s this concept of adverse selection, which is that the negative actors will find them, will seek them out, and it will.
00:16:56
Speaker 1
Be a match.
00:16:57
Speaker 1
And so they’ll ultimately get adversely selected into the deals that blow.
00:17:02
Speaker 1
So the bad deals, what you’re saying is the bad deals, we find the bad investors who don’t do the work and then they spiral and crash together.
00:17:09
Speaker 1
That’s a really brilliant observation.
00:17:11
Speaker 1
Yeah, yeah, I think, I think the other.
00:17:13
Speaker 1
That’s why I think the other thing is like.
00:17:14
Speaker 1
You you have this situation where.
00:17:17
Speaker 1
If it wasn’t that, it’s folks outsourcing their diligence to the person that did the round before early, you know, oh, Silver Lake did it.
00:17:23
Speaker 1
Well, since you know Tiger did it, OK, there details are very sophisticated investors.
00:17:28
Speaker 1
I don’t need to do the work.
00:17:30
Speaker 1
It turned out you did because you know it.
00:17:32
Speaker 1
It it was a.
00:17:37
Speaker 1
Cavalier way of recognizing revenue and.
00:17:40
Speaker 1
Adding in a specific playbook here.
00:17:41
Speaker 1
Cool, but I don’t know if you saw this lacks any stage where people would get their friends to invest in the company or some you know, high net worth individuals.
00:17:49
Speaker 1
And then you look at the deal and evaluation didn’t make sense.
00:17:53
Speaker 1
And then you say, well, we would always ask how much money is each person putting in and we’re like, well, their normal best.
00:17:58
Speaker 1
Guys in the seed is 750 or 1.5 million.
00:18:02
Speaker 1
But they’re putting 50K into this or 100 here. What’s going on here? And it was all their friends with them.
00:18:06
Speaker 1
They worked at a previous company together.
00:18:08
Speaker 1
They were in the same.
00:18:08
Speaker 1
They went to the same college, and so people were using social proof but manipulating it to get some other sucker at the table to pay full price and not due diligence.
00:18:18
Speaker 1
Really strange behavior.
00:18:20
Speaker 1
I I was in Singapore this week.
00:18:22
Speaker 1
There was.
00:18:23
Speaker 1
I I was great dealing with this young investor, really dynamic guy, and he was telling me about a company in Indonesia that he didn’t invest in.
00:18:33
Speaker 1
But it turned out that they that this founder was literally running two parallel sets of accounting.
00:18:40
Speaker 1
And so he was, you know, showing the business and fund raising from this set.
00:18:45
Speaker 1
But the the real books were over here and have looked a completely different system and it was basically like.
00:18:50
Speaker 1
A Ponzi scheme and.
00:18:52
Speaker 1
You know, he was telling me.
00:18:52
Speaker 1
It’s like, it’s like.
00:18:53
Speaker 1
Impossible to root these things out so.
00:18:55
Speaker 1
What he said he relies on is like, you have to have a network.
00:18:59
Speaker 1
When you’re doing these frontier country deals where you know, he says.
00:19:03
Speaker 1
I need to find at least 10 people that.
00:19:05
Speaker 1
Know this person.
00:19:07
Speaker 1
So that there is sort of like a moral, social proof and moral diligence that happens because that person will never try to commit something that egregious in the face of all of their friends.
00:19:17
Speaker 1
And so, you know, that’s a mechanism of filtering this stuff out, but I thought that was a really interesting way of designing a diligence process in at least in a frontier market here. I don’t think you have that much time to do these really, you know, fast-paced deals.
00:19:31
Speaker 1
And the social proof matters less because you theoretically, you know, are looking for signals of traction.
00:19:39
Speaker 1
But there has to be a better systematic way of getting this diligence done because these things should be pretty obvious saxy well before it’s it’s well the ports of multi decade, billion dollar company attacks last year when people were moving really fast saying they don’t have time for diligence, you’re gonna lose the deal, yadda yadda.
00:19:53
Speaker 1
How did you approach diligence during those peak periods and did you have those experiences where people were trying to push you to close?
00:19:59
Speaker 1
Without talking to customers or looking at bank.
00:20:02
Speaker 4
Statements, yadda yadda.
00:20:03
Speaker 4
No, we wouldn’t play that game because we always run fast metrics.
00:20:06
Speaker 4
There’s always the starting point for us, but you know, most fast companies.
00:20:10
Speaker 4
They have special metrics.
00:20:11
Speaker 4
They, I mean they they’re so standardized that it would be such a red flag if they didn’t.
00:20:15
Speaker 4
Yeah, I think.
00:20:16
Speaker 4
It might be companies that are, you know, have unusual business models or maybe they would say something like that.
00:20:22
Speaker 4
But no, we could.
00:20:22
Speaker 2
Find it.
00:20:23
Speaker 4
Never do as best investor without sauce.
00:20:25
Speaker 1
Metrics, right? Well, this is a good segue, because right now, US venture capitalists.
00:20:29
Speaker 1
Living on $290 billion in dry powder, we had talked about this last year, how much dry powder was there? The market is obviously collapsed, but here’s a chart from our friends over at Pitchbook.
00:20:41
Speaker 1
It’s just extraordinary how much has built up and how much has been raised. You SVC funds raised $121 billion during the first half of this year, 2022.
00:20:52
Speaker 1
So LP’s still have an appetite, which kind of makes sense, that inducting into the down market for private companies means you’re going to get better deals and you have a 10 year horizon.
00:21:01
Speaker 1
USB C is raised 139 billion miles, 2021. So if you put those two numbers together, yeah, we’re looking at $260 billion in the last 18 months, and this is all record numbers being put up on the board.
00:21:15
Speaker 1
What does this say for private companies tracks?
00:21:19
Speaker 4
I just need this analysis a little bit.
00:21:22
Speaker 4
I think there’s a couple of things going on that needs to take into consideration.
00:21:26
Speaker 4
First of all, new funds don’t get announced till after the process completes.
00:21:32
Speaker 4
And then you know it may even be some time after that when the VC firm feels like they want to make the announcement.
00:21:37
Speaker 4
You can’t announce the funds until the process.
00:21:39
Speaker 4
Completely over you get subject all sorts of additional SEC rules.
00:21:44
Speaker 4
You know, these funds might.
00:21:45
Speaker 4
Be announced in 2022, but they may have actually been raised in 2021.
00:21:51
Speaker 4
So that I think is a really important point.
00:21:54
Speaker 4
Moreover, a lot of the funds may have already deployed capital before the crash.
00:21:58
Speaker 4
So there was that I think remarkable story that we talked about months ago in Tech Crunch.
00:22:04
Speaker 4
On how the latest Tiger Fund.
00:22:06
Speaker 4
Which wasn’t even announced till March or April of 2022 that have already been 2/3 deployed by the time they even announced it.
00:22:14
Speaker 4
And so that was pretty stunning. So I I think that we don’t really have a great sense of how much of this so-called dry powder has already been deployed, how much of it was really.
00:22:26
Speaker 4
Raised before the crash.
00:22:27
Speaker 4
It is true that LP relationships with VC firms have done well, are sticky and good LP’s stick with their partners during a downturn.
00:22:37
Speaker 4
So look, I mean the VC world, something out of business or?
00:22:39
Speaker 4
Anything like that?
00:22:40
Speaker 4
But I would tend.
00:22:41
Speaker 4
To think that this.
00:22:43
Speaker 4
Is an overly optimistic, overly rosy scenario.
00:22:47
Speaker 4
The doobie fees have new funds that they’re going to be raised or playing great companies, yes, but doesn’t mean it’s gonna be easy.
00:22:55
Speaker 4
No, I think that the bar has gone up, valuations have gone down, founders.
00:23:00
Speaker 4
Looking at this.
00:23:01
Speaker 4
Tweet storm I would not get loaded into a false sense of security.
00:23:05
Speaker 1
Yeah, I agree.
00:23:06
Speaker 1
Just do it.
00:23:07
Speaker 1
In that there’s probably A6 month lag on when these funds were announced. The reason is there’s 506B.
00:23:12
Speaker 1
And C designations.
00:23:13
Speaker 1
Most people is under 5 or 6B, which means you cannot even say that your fundraising record Pitchbook can never have that data.
00:23:19
Speaker 1
So there’s a lag and people were deploying at a very high velocity, therefore this number could be off.
00:23:27
Speaker 1
35%.
00:23:27
Speaker 4
Well, if people were deploying at a pace where.
00:23:30
Speaker 4
They tell you to go back for a new fund every year, which is what it was looking like in 2020.
00:23:34
Speaker 4
2021 you.
00:23:36
Speaker
Know if that’s.
00:23:36
Speaker 4
This one period might remove the Playhouse.
00:23:39
Speaker 4
So look, if you just go back to a 2 1/2 or three-year pace of deployment and before in 2021 we’re at a one year pace of deployment divide the availability of capital by 2/3, I mean you know only 1/3 as much will be deployed in any given year.
00:23:58
Speaker 4
That’s a, you know significant reduction.
00:24:01
Speaker 4
So yeah, I think foundations be aware that the market is going to be a lot tighter and I think given that we’re seeing in the public markets which we it doesn’t look to me like.
00:24:10
Speaker 4
Similarly, batteries.
00:24:11
Speaker 4
It looks to me like we’re headed for I did.
00:24:13
Speaker 4
I called the double dip recession.
00:24:15
Speaker 4
I think a couple of months ago that’s exactly what it’s looking like.
00:24:19
Speaker 4
In fact, the Fed basically said as much.
00:24:20
Speaker 4
The Fed said.
00:24:21
Speaker 4
There would be.
00:24:22
Speaker 4
Just marginally positive next quarter, so we’ve bounced back to slightly positive growth on a real basis, but then you know expect it to go negative again and you know recession.
00:24:35
Speaker 4
Once all these interest rates kick in.
00:24:37
Speaker 4
And by the way.
00:24:38
Speaker 4
I mean, kudos such models for basically following that.
00:24:41
Speaker 4
You know, when the Fed just couple months ago was saying that so-called neutral would be 3 to 3 1/2%, jamals was saying, no, it’s gonna be 4 1/2.
00:24:49
Speaker 4
5% plus now.
00:24:50
Speaker 4
The Fed just instruments is revised to saying that neutral is 4.6% or something like that and and they don’t think there’s going to be any rate reductions.
00:25:00
Speaker 4
In 2023.
00:25:02
Speaker 4
So this is not looking good.
00:25:03
Speaker 1
How much math the issue here is.
00:25:06
Speaker 1
’cause we don’t the data that we’re seeing the ground truth worsening, and she would often say it might be very different than like the reports that are coming out.
00:25:16
Speaker 1
People are talking about inflation from, you know, 60 days ago job reports that are 30 days old, 60 days old.
00:25:21
Speaker 1
We don’t really have live data.
00:25:24
Speaker 1
It seems like our government doesn’t use live data.
00:25:27
Speaker 1
When they make these decisions is that they unfortunately that they unfortunately don’t have access to.
00:25:32
Speaker 1
It really, you know?
00:25:32
Speaker 1
They are.
00:25:33
Speaker 1
They have empirical sampling.
00:25:35
Speaker 1
But to say that you know the the US economy is automated in a way where you know they can sit in front of some dashboard and you know see in real time what the true on.
00:25:45
Speaker 1
The ground data is.
00:25:46
Speaker 1
Is not really accurate, unfortunately.
00:25:48
Speaker 1
Maybe there’s a Manhattan Project type, you know, effort to do that at some points for the United States.
00:25:54
Speaker 1
But it’s not now.
00:25:56
Speaker 1
I’ll give you a bit of bad news and a bit of good news.
00:26:00
Speaker 1
And this is just me, kind of, you know, look, I’m looking at the mosaic and and kind of judging where we are today.
00:26:08
Speaker 1
The bad news is, I think, that.
00:26:10
Speaker 1
It’s going to be a really tough, sticky time for the US consumer probably over the next 18 months.
00:26:18
Speaker 1
And so I tend to think that you know through the course of this year and through 2023 and possibly even a little bit of 24, it’s going to be grind.
00:26:30
Speaker 1
Unemployment will go back up.
00:26:34
Speaker 1
Inflation will be sticking.
00:26:36
Speaker 1
Real earnings will shrink.
00:26:39
Speaker 1
Consumption will end.
00:26:43
Speaker 1
And earnings will not be that great.
00:26:47
Speaker 1
But the schools aligning is I think that we are starting a bottoming process for the equity markets and I think that by the end of this year or the early part of next year, most of that will be done and the reason is that you know the equity markets I think do a reasonable job.
00:27:07
Speaker 1
Hub run looking at the bond market among two looking 6 to 9 months into the future and pricing in that future today.
00:27:16
Speaker 1
And so by the end of this year, beginning of next year, I think that we will have kind of bottomed and we’ll start to build a base.
00:27:24
Speaker 1
The thing to remind us though is that, you know, let’s say a stock goes down 2050% even if it rallies 50% from Lowe’s or 25% off from work.
00:27:33
Speaker 1
Yeah, people don’t understand that.
00:27:34
Speaker 1
And people have already did that climb back up.
00:27:36
Speaker 1
The mountain.
00:27:37
Speaker 1
So I would just, I would just think you know tell people that you know I think that David is right.
00:27:43
Speaker 1
I think that is going.
00:27:45
Speaker 1
We’re going to steal this for a while.
00:27:47
Speaker 1
It’s this.
00:27:48
Speaker 1
Inflation, as I said for a long time, is going to be seeking and persistent.
00:27:52
Speaker 1
I think you’re going to see Fed funds act.
00:27:55
Speaker 1
Or breaching 5%.
00:27:59
Speaker 1
And but I think that in terms of you know risk assets will bottom out by the end of this.
00:28:05
Speaker 1
Year beginning of next year.
00:28:07
Speaker 1
Probably about.
00:28:08
Speaker 1
So you think we’re in the process of bottoming out and it’s going to be aware of this kind of shrug through the muck?
00:28:17
Speaker 1
And what signs are you looking for that maybe we’re getting out of there, turning the corner.
00:28:21
Speaker 1
I mean, Larry Summers had some good.
00:28:24
Speaker 1
Tweets this week, so we’re, you know, the weird thing is Larry Summers seems to be.
00:28:29
Speaker 1
Like almost trying to.
00:28:30
Speaker 1
Make the case and make certain points because he’s not being listened to.
00:28:35
Speaker 1
It’s it’s it’s so ironic and sad to watch because he’s such a fossil economist and has such a great point of view and experience that.
00:28:46
Speaker 1
To leverage here.
00:28:47
Speaker 1
And clearly, you know, he was banging the drums last year and no one was listening and he got public about it and now he’s.
00:28:54
Speaker 1
More repeatedly public about things.
00:28:57
Speaker 1
The point that he’s.
00:28:58
Speaker 1
Made which I think.
00:28:59
Speaker 1
Plays into the political cycle question, which is where the tension arises is in order to resolve ultimately the inflation problem, you’re going to have to see a significant increment in unemployment.
00:29:13
Speaker 1
And so when you raise interest rates, you know, generally purchasing goes down, demand goes down, revenue goes down, layoffs happen, some businesses go bankrupt, et cetera.
00:29:25
Speaker 1
So then there’s this trickle in the.
00:29:26
Speaker 1
Economy of less people being employed.
00:29:29
Speaker 1
And when that happens, it ultimately drives.
00:29:32
Speaker 1
A political response, which is, hey, we’re losing our jobs.
00:29:36
Speaker 1
People start asking their representatives do something about this in Congress, and then these programs and these things get passed, which themselves are inflationary.
00:29:46
Speaker 1
And that’s why it’s very hard to predict ultimately when and how this all gets resolved, because.
00:29:52
Speaker 1
We seem to have an administration that is enacting and embracing inflationary policies to support what they consider to be economic growth and.
00:30:04
Speaker 1
And improved employment conditions in this country and the unfortunate effect of many of those policies is inflation and then it forces this difficult Central bank decision making cycle.
00:30:15
Speaker 1
And so there’s a tension right now that doesn’t seem to have a clear path to resolution that.
00:30:20
Speaker 1
Is why it’s?
00:30:20
Speaker 1
Very hard to to have.
00:30:21
Speaker 1
A clear prediction.
00:30:23
Speaker 1
Here we also have a very significant.
00:30:25
Speaker 1
Question overhanging all of these markets related to the price of energy, which is a key input to so many industries and and broad.
00:30:32
Speaker 1
Cost, as well as food and also the military conflict in Eastern Europe and you.
00:30:38
Speaker 1
Know and and.
00:30:40
Speaker 1
Then there’s in the financial markets this big overhang question on what’s going to happen with various countries that may default on their debt as well as China real estate bubble person.
00:30:50
Speaker 1
So I made.
00:30:51
Speaker 1
This point I think a few episodes ago, but there’s no easy answer that I can just say deterministically.
00:30:55
Speaker 1
Here’s my prediction of what’s going to happen at.
00:30:58
Speaker 1
Tomalak uses the term, I think it’s a great term.
00:31:00
Speaker 1
There’s this mosaic of things that are under under consideration right now, and there’s a tension between them all and.
00:31:07
Speaker
And that’s what makes.
00:31:08
Speaker 1
It difficult for them really answer the question.
00:31:10
Speaker 1
But that that’s.
00:31:11
Speaker 3
That’s kind of.
00:31:11
Speaker
How I think.
00:31:12
Speaker 4
There’s large geopolitical risk.
00:31:14
Speaker 4
I mean, we’re kind of, you know, ignoring what happened this week where Putin basically is putting nukes back on the table.
00:31:21
Speaker 4
Now, I’m not saying that’s likely to happen, but.
00:31:25
Speaker 4
I don’t know how.
00:31:25
Speaker 4
Again, I don’t know how this market gets a lot better.
00:31:28
Speaker 4
With the risk of.
00:31:28
Speaker 4
War three ending over our heads.
00:31:31
Speaker 4
I mean, who wants to enter the market?
00:31:32
Speaker 4
With that and by the.
00:31:33
Speaker 1
Way the new justice to be clear, you know.
00:31:36
Speaker 1
You can hear a certain military commander speaking publicly about this, but.
00:31:41
Speaker 1
In the Russian military playbooks there is specifically defined actions that can lead to tactical nuclear weapon use in the field.
00:31:53
Speaker 1
There’s no direct indication that these things are going.
00:31:55
Speaker 1
To be used right.
00:31:56
Speaker 1
Away but the as.
00:31:58
Speaker 1
As that says, there’s like this weird like turning up the volume happening.
00:32:02
Speaker 1
On hey, maybe we’re getting closer to a point where if Putin is having tactical failure in this conflict, there’s more weaponry he can use that has greater impact, and unfortunately, there are these tactical nukes in his arsenal.
00:32:16
Speaker 1
And you know a guy.
00:32:17
Speaker 1
That maybe has a certain psychology that has, as our friends have said, is back against.
00:32:22
Speaker 1
The wall.
00:32:23
Speaker 1
He’s not a person who, in his career or in his history, has ever acquiesced to defeat.
00:32:29
Speaker 1
Alex Karp was on CNBC.
00:32:31
Speaker 1
He was really, really sharp and concise about this, which is that you know in the West when leaders fail in their objectives.
00:32:40
Speaker 1
They just get selected out and somebody else takes their place.
00:32:44
Speaker 1
But for somebody like Putin, there is nobody to take his place because it’s a very zero sum situation.
00:32:50
Speaker 1
And so his actions will as a result also be 0 sum game adding folks he’s never actually asked in his life.
00:32:56
Speaker 1
And yeah yeah, we’ve never, we’ve never really kind of like we don’t.
00:33:00
Speaker 1
Understand well what 0 sum decision making looks like when it comes to stuff like this.
00:33:04
Speaker 1
You need the Golden bridge, right?
00:33:06
Speaker 1
Will be.
00:33:06
Speaker 1
He does just look well.
00:33:08
Speaker 1
I’ll just say two things.
00:33:09
Speaker 1
One is that.
00:33:12
Speaker 1
I think it’s been made pretty clear that both India and China will not stand beside Russia if they do something like this.
00:33:19
Speaker 1
And I think that that is important because they still are the two biggest purchasers of of Russian role.
00:33:24
Speaker 1
And so I think that matters a lot because you’re talking about a lot of revenue that would doesn’t go away.
00:33:29
Speaker 1
And then the second is I mentioned this last weekend and this may sound dumb.
00:33:32
Speaker 1
To some of you, but don’t sleep on the Russian mothers and what happened to your 100%?
00:33:37
Speaker 1
Square what?
00:33:38
Speaker 1
Right.
00:33:39
Speaker 1
Happened this week was really interesting, which is that he called up all these reservists.
00:33:42
Speaker 1
These reservists are not coming from the major cities.
00:33:44
Speaker 1
Pressure you’re starting to see protests are starting to young people saying I don’t want to do this yet and cruise that really activating it’s.
00:33:51
Speaker 1
Activating the mount? Yep.
00:33:53
Speaker 1
And so while we work on the Russian moms, 300 people are being drafted, you know, to basically go fight.
00:33:59
Speaker 5
Two years.
00:34:00
Speaker 1
And I actually think David’s.
00:34:02
Speaker 1
Right.
00:34:02
Speaker 1
So sorry, so good the question.
00:34:03
Speaker 1
I have for you is.
00:34:04
Speaker 1
Do you think that?
00:34:05
Speaker 1
I know you.
00:34:06
Speaker 1
Don’t agree with this, but do you think the strategy is to back him into a corner and then have this like rhetoric spike to then force a resolution?
00:34:15
Speaker 1
I know it’s a dangerous strategy, it’s a crazy chess move, but do you think that’s actually what the West?
00:34:19
Speaker 1
Is thinking.
00:34:21
Speaker
I see no.
00:34:22
Speaker 4
Evidence that we have any intentions of seeking a diplomatic off ramp, I see no evidence that they’re looking for to give him a golden bridge like you said.
00:34:32
Speaker 1
Then do you think they’re trying to break him and have him?
00:34:35
Speaker 4
Shoving, Biden stated the policy, which is this man cannot remain in power.
00:34:38
Speaker 4
I think he blurted out the truth of his policy this is a regime change.
00:34:41
Speaker 4
Policy, that’s what they’re going for.
00:34:43
Speaker 4
They they are backing into a.
00:34:44
Speaker 1
Corner check.
00:34:45
Speaker 1
I thought that you were right this whole time, which is we’re going to build a golden bridge, we’re going to find a way to egress this guy off, and I’m now sorted into David Camp, which.
00:34:53
Speaker 1
Is. I think that.
00:34:56
Speaker 1
The stated strategy of the Western Alliance is essentially to cause him to make such a categorically catastrophic mistake skills to become a pariah.
00:35:04
Speaker 1
So I’ll try to get away with groaners or, you know, something.
00:35:08
Speaker 1
So I I do think that on balance, the risk is now for things to escalate, maybe not in.
00:35:16
Speaker 1
Quantity. And I’ll use this word in the wrong way, but, you know, quote UN quote like the intensity of audits.
00:35:22
Speaker 1
So I I think Dave is.
00:35:24
Speaker 1
Right.
00:35:24
Speaker 1
It’s a lot of pressure to.
00:35:25
Speaker 1
The economy and.
00:35:26
Speaker 1
To for.
00:35:28
Speaker 1
This happens in other stuff.
00:35:29
Speaker
There’s a high risk for.
00:35:30
Speaker 4
Us we got a good thing going over here.
00:35:31
Speaker 4
I don’t see the news through all this rift.
00:35:34
Speaker 2
So look at that.
00:35:36
Speaker 1
Which would be the reward?
00:35:36
Speaker 2
I have.
00:35:37
Speaker 1
What would you?
00:35:37
Speaker 1
See the reward if Putin removed all my Lord.
00:35:40
Speaker 4
Well, it depends who.
00:35:41
Speaker 4
Replaces them.
00:35:42
Speaker 4
But if we get a hardliner, you know, remember prudence taken out all the liberal reformers, all that’s left the hardliners.
00:35:47
Speaker 4
Yeah, so I know.
00:35:48
Speaker 4
I know.
00:35:48
Speaker 4
There’s moms protesting in the streets, but he’s also under intense pressure from his his right wing that, you know he’s got Hawks on his side who basically been criticizing him for.
00:36:00
Speaker 4
Making this a special limited military operation sort of award. They’re like, why do you try to do this with 20,000 ships we should have?
00:36:06
Speaker 4
Gone into heavy with a million, is that right?
00:36:08
Speaker 1
There’s criticism internally that there’s a new.
00:36:10
Speaker 4
York Times article about this.
00:36:12
Speaker 2
He has.
00:36:12
Speaker 4
His own you.
00:36:14
Speaker 4
Know military hardliners in his security state?
00:36:16
Speaker 4
His Hawks so?
00:36:18
Speaker 4
So he’s not just under pressure from peaceniks who are protesting in the streets.
00:36:22
Speaker 4
He’s also under pressure from hardliners in his own government who think he’s been too soft.
00:36:26
Speaker 1
It’s a challenging situation.
00:36:30
Speaker 1
He said he said he’s gonna be 70 years old.
00:36:32
Speaker 1
How many verses he have left?
00:36:33
Speaker 1
We just need to continue.
00:36:34
Speaker 1
In full and darkening.
00:36:34
Speaker 4
Time was on our side.
00:36:36
Speaker 1
Yeah, containing from one more decade.
00:36:36
Speaker 4
I don’t know.
00:36:38
Speaker 1
I that’s my best idea.
00:36:39
Speaker 1
Contain him for a.
00:36:40
Speaker 1
Decade Steelers.
00:36:40
Speaker 4
The thing I have the most trouble was is you look at the media portrayal of this.
00:36:44
Speaker 4
So I said last week when we had this successful counter offense.
00:36:48
Speaker 4
With that, maybe we’ll get what we want, which is Russian Ralph lapses.
00:36:51
Speaker 4
They just tuck their tail between their legs and go back to Moscow.
00:36:54
Speaker 4
Or baby, you know, the Russians really do see this war is existential for them.
00:36:59
Speaker 4
Putin sees his existential for himself and he has placed well. What happened this week we run out Piranha on the escalatory ladder, basically putting truck drew down 3000 more troops.
00:37:09
Speaker 4
Any space in Decatur is more just use chapter books.
00:37:13
Speaker 4
He basically said I’m not bluffing.
00:37:15
Speaker 4
So now what is the reaction in there compressed?
00:37:18
Speaker 4
He must be bluffing.
00:37:19
Speaker 3
I mean.
00:37:20
Speaker 4
That basically is the reaction.
00:37:21
Speaker 4
And look, I don’t know how you know that.
00:37:25
Speaker 4
You know in programmer, but you in poker, what do we do when someone might be we put him on a range?
00:37:30
Speaker 4
It’s called a hand range, right?
00:37:32
Speaker 4
Can’t possibly know exactly.
00:37:34
Speaker 4
What they’re going to do or?
00:37:35
Speaker 4
What parts are holding?
00:37:36
Speaker 4
So you put him on a range of possible hands, and then you evaluate the story in light of their past actions.
00:37:41
Speaker 4
What do they do?
00:37:42
Speaker 4
Before the flop.
00:37:43
Speaker 4
On the floor and you basically come to uh.
00:37:45
Speaker 4
Assessment of what is likely based on their story now take treatment.
00:37:49
Speaker 4
Story like frequent said he’s never backed down those lights from any.
00:37:52
Speaker 2
I think.
00:37:53
Speaker 4
He has said this war is existential.
00:37:56
Speaker 4
You know, he basically threatened to invade, and so he did.
00:37:58
Speaker 4
I mean like I.
00:37:59
Speaker 4
Don’t know how you.
00:38:00
Speaker 4
Can immediately jump to the conclusion this.
00:38:02
Speaker 4
Is just the block.
00:38:02
Speaker 4
Maybe it is but.
00:38:04
Speaker 4
I I don’t know.
00:38:04
Speaker 1
Or it could be it could still be a block, but then to your point, the range of outcomes does include shoving on the river, moving all alone.
00:38:11
Speaker 1
He could move away.
00:38:12
Speaker 1
I mean, he’s a KGB agent.
00:38:14
Speaker 1
Do you want to play the.
00:38:14
Speaker 1
Poker with a.
00:38:15
Speaker 1
KGB agent with.
00:38:16
Speaker 1
Nukes, Ryan.
00:38:18
Speaker 4
So Jason, useful throughout the size of Mad Man.
00:38:20
Speaker 4
Well, exactly I.
00:38:21
Speaker 4
Mean personally, I think she’s more like ruthless Mafia boss than.
00:38:24
Speaker 4
A madman.
00:38:25
Speaker 4
But but let’s say you like that he is a.
00:38:26
Speaker 4
Madman, what is the?
00:38:28
Speaker 4
Story about what we’re doing.
00:38:31
Speaker 4
That makes sense if.
00:38:32
Speaker 4
He is a madman.
00:38:33
Speaker 4
Why would we want it based investment or corner like that?
00:38:36
Speaker 4
Why wouldn’t we give him the golden off there and by the way, just on this idea that.
00:38:40
Speaker 4
No one would ever use.
00:38:42
Speaker 4
Tactical nukes.
00:38:43
Speaker 4
These give you 3 data points.
00:38:44
Speaker 4
Personal we use them.
00:38:45
Speaker 4
We dropped two atomic bombs on Japan and to end.
00:38:48
Speaker 4
World War Two.
00:38:49
Speaker 4
We could have won that war without doing.
00:38:51
Speaker 4
It but we.
00:38:51
Speaker 4
Didn’t want to lose the troops from the.
00:38:52
Speaker 3
But wait, there’s more.
00:38:52
Speaker 4
Grading the Japanese.
00:38:53
Speaker 1
Intact when you say for just.
00:38:53
Speaker 4
Gift they were tactical, nuke sized atomic bombs.
00:38:57
Speaker 4
2 MacArthur weren’t used 20 to 30 atomic bombs to end the Korean War. He had a whole plan.
00:39:04
Speaker 4
She inspired him, he thought. He basically attempt to start. But MacArthur was the most respected and admired American in 1950 in the region. Like Truman could not run through elections to the fire MacArthur because we would have used.
00:39:17
Speaker 4
Basically a couple of tactical nukes to win the Korean War, and his plan to prevent China from reengaging from the north, which will radiate the border so completely that Chinese troops cannot go through it.
00:39:29
Speaker 1
Keep in mind there wasn’t as many nukes at the time, so we weren’t up against nine different legal noble countries.
00:39:34
Speaker 4
I understand, but we had an American.
00:39:36
Speaker 4
Commander ahead of our military who is willing to use nukes to win a war?
00:39:39
Speaker 4
So this idea that even though I mean.
00:39:41
Speaker 4
We’ve been willing.
00:39:42
Speaker 4
To do that.
00:39:43
Speaker 4
And the third example is obviously the Cuban missile crisis.
00:39:45
Speaker 4
All penalties military advisers were willing to get to use nukes, I mean.
00:39:49
Speaker 4
And the best thing he did was not listening to his military advisors, who were all super office.
00:39:55
Speaker 4
And Kennedy, what did he do?
00:39:56
Speaker 4
He looked for a way out.
00:39:57
Speaker 4
Looked for a compromise, he.
00:39:59
Speaker 4
Sent Bobby Kennedy to go.
00:40:01
Speaker 4
Cut a secret deal, but the weapons were Kennedy agreed to.
00:40:05
Speaker 4
Hold all Jupiter missiles out of Turkey if the Russians would pull their missiles out of Cuba.
00:40:10
Speaker 4
And then you write in American public.
00:40:11
Speaker 4
About it because.
00:40:12
Speaker 1
He did when he perceives as.
00:40:13
Speaker 4
Backing down, but that’s the kind of.
00:40:16
Speaker 4
Of, you know, flexibility and mental acuity that I think you would need in a nucleus slow down to.
00:40:21
Speaker 4
Avoid a catastrophe.
00:40:22
Speaker 4
If things do, escalate to the point of nuclear showdown.
00:40:25
Speaker 2
Do we believe that we have leadership on the?
00:40:28
Speaker 4
Level of a Jack generally or Bobby Kennedy Johnson basically show the flexibility and adaptability to cut a deal to basically pull us back.
00:40:35
Speaker 4
From the brink.
00:40:36
Speaker 4
Yeah, it doesn’t seem like that those binds response it was he gave this speech.
00:40:41
Speaker 4
United Nations and responsibility.
00:40:43
Speaker 4
And it’s more of the same.
00:40:44
Speaker 4
This notice is that called the age Princeton speech is old man.
00:40:48
Speaker 4
You know, yelling.
00:40:49
Speaker 4
At the cloud.
00:40:49
Speaker 4
I mean, it’s basically just yelling at a teleprompter.
00:40:51
Speaker 4
Now, I think the strategically smart play would have been to say, listen, you said that you want the people of Ukraine to decide where these territories go.
00:41:01
Speaker 4
OK, we can hold a referendum, but.
00:41:03
Speaker 4
We want to be administered by the United Nations.
00:41:05
Speaker 4
That will have.
00:41:06
Speaker 4
So it will have some credibility behind it.
00:41:09
Speaker 4
I mean, why not throw that out there as a potential way to get?
00:41:13
Speaker 4
Deployments be started.
00:41:14
Speaker 1
It’s not like at the end of last year.
00:41:17
Speaker 1
You guys remember I talked like conflict was likely this year?
00:41:21
Speaker 1
I don’t think that the conditions that.
00:41:27
Speaker 1
I was referencing have really gotten better.
00:41:30
Speaker 1
I think they’ve gotten worse and that’s why I think we all talk about this in a rational way.
00:41:36
Speaker 1
Meaning, like have a conscious mind would, you know, debate the merits and and challenges and risks of having a golden bridge or continuing conflict.
00:41:47
Speaker 1
But if you look historically, the US has often been in the middle of or at the tail end of.
00:41:56
Speaker 1
Some either recessionary cycle or inflationary cycle when conflict escalated externally.
00:42:03
Speaker 1
The dog you’re referring to?
00:42:05
Speaker 2
I I don’t.
00:42:06
Speaker 1
I don’t know if I would call.
00:42:06
Speaker 1
It that, but I I think that there is.
00:42:09
Speaker 1
An innate human anxiety.
00:42:12
Speaker 1
When things aren’t going well, you feel like you have to do something about it, and you’re either going to have internal conflict or external conflict as a result to try and resolve when when things are going great, the economy is booming.
00:42:24
Speaker 1
You don’t enter a.
00:42:26
Speaker 1
You don’t start a conflict with a nation when people are happy at home, when your constituents.
00:42:31
Speaker 1
And and, you know, the unemployment rate is low and job wage growth is high.
00:42:38
Speaker 1
The economy is growing.
00:42:39
Speaker 1
You referring to in that states or Russia in this?
00:42:41
Speaker 1
Case I’m referring to the.
00:42:43
Speaker 1
US and.
00:42:43
Speaker 1
I think, you know, curious if you were coming out of COVID and coming out of the the the big question marks that loomed over our economy at the end of last year around inflation, economic growth.
00:42:57
Speaker 1
Interest rates and the effect and now we’re in the middle of the turmoil. Markets are down 30% and in some cases 70 to 80% for high growth markets.
00:43:08
Speaker 1
There’s an inevitability now that unemployment is going to rise.
00:43:11
Speaker 1
There is an inevitability now that the economy is going to contract.
00:43:16
Speaker 1
Leadership is more likely in that scenario to find an outlet, to find someplace of conflict, and I don’t think it’s.
00:43:23
Speaker 1
Explain why in this theory, explain why.
00:43:26
Speaker 1
Why did artists is that?
00:43:28
Speaker 1
You’re saying people ride the dog?
00:43:29
Speaker 1
I I don’t.
00:43:30
Speaker 1
I don’t think it’s a conscious decision.
00:43:31
Speaker 1
I don’t think that it’s like, hey, let’s go start a war with Russia because the economy is bad.
00:43:35
Speaker 1
I think it’s this anxiety.
00:43:37
Speaker 1
The economy is bad and there’s not a lot we can do about it.
00:43:40
Speaker 1
And over here, on the other hand, there’s a problem and there’s something we can do about it.
00:43:43
Speaker 1
We can build strength and we can build integrity.
00:43:45
Speaker 1
And we can both support and we can get people to get behind something together.
00:43:50
Speaker 1
And we can get something to create a driving mechanism to achieve something big like.
00:43:56
Speaker 1
A distraction, you’re saying? Yeah.
00:43:57
Speaker
Yeah, and I I don’t.
00:43:58
Speaker
Think that psychology.
00:43:59
Speaker 1
Is as simple as a distraction or wag the dog or hey, it’s not even as simple as the military industrial complex will see revenue growth and wage growth, and that’ll drive the economy.
00:44:08
Speaker 1
But I think all those things together are true.
00:44:10
Speaker 1
And I think in in whole we’re we are more likely to want to pursue conflict right now than we were even a year ago.
00:44:18
Speaker 1
You buy it at Rama, I think he’s more like than long.
00:44:21
Speaker 1
I think that when.
00:44:25
Speaker 1
Things aren’t easy.
00:44:28
Speaker 1
You need to find.
00:44:31
Speaker 1
Sort of distractions essentially to, yeah, get people to focus on other things so that the core problem is it is obvious we have in the United States.
00:44:40
Speaker 1
I think let’s go create another problem that’s solvable.
00:44:42
Speaker 1
Yeah, like the best I think the best way that I can describe.
00:44:45
Speaker 1
This as I see it is.
00:44:46
Speaker 1
Institutional rot.
00:44:49
Speaker 1
And the more that we’re left to our own devices, that amount of institutional decay becomes more and more obvious.
00:44:56
Speaker 1
Our governments don’t work the way that they should.
00:44:59
Speaker 1
You know, our state assemblies are basically Co opted by special interests.
00:45:03
Speaker 1
The federal institutions we rely on to make rules are not that great.
00:45:07
Speaker 1
Enormous amounts of money get wasted every day, and as more and more people become aware of these things.
00:45:14
Speaker 1
It’s it’s just the trend is just.
00:45:15
Speaker 1
So bad, you know, civic engagement goes down, everything just gets worse.
00:45:20
Speaker 1
And so when you take that and then on top of that you sit on a poor economy.
00:45:26
Speaker 1
That is a real powder keg, I think.
00:45:28
Speaker 1
And so folks like to, I think if you’re politicians, it’s easier to kind of go and point to Taiwan and say, you know, we’re going to go and defend these folks if there’s a war, point to Russia and say there’s point to all these other things it says.
00:45:42
Speaker 1
Whether it’s implicit as feedbooks size or it’s more explicit of the strategy.
00:45:46
Speaker 1
I don’t know.
00:45:47
Speaker 1
But the underlying cause is the same, which is that if the foundation of the house is not strong and you’re not sure what to do to fix it, or you don’t have the courage to fix it.
00:45:58
Speaker 1
The better strategic alternative is to distract and talk about your neighbors.
00:46:01
Speaker 1
Us coming out of.
00:46:02
Speaker 1
Coming out of the financial crisis in 2008, 2009, Obama re committed to Afghanistan and sent 17,000 troops to Afghanistan in early 2009.
00:46:10
Speaker 1
When he took office, we entered the Persian Gulf with the.
00:46:13
Speaker 1
Gulf War in 1990.
00:46:14
Speaker 1
One coming out of the Great Recession or the the the mild recession?
00:46:18
Speaker 1
1990 to 1990.
00:46:19
Speaker 1
One 2000 2001.com crashed. We, you know, we obviously entered entered Iraq.
00:46:28
Speaker 1
Yeah, it was post 9 post.
00:46:30
Speaker 1
They put the chat was also in the midst of all this, but it was also in the midst of a.
00:46:32
Speaker 4
In that word.
00:46:34
Speaker 1
Recession and coming out of the.
00:46:35
Speaker 5
That was that.
00:46:35
Speaker 1
Democratic.com.
00:46:36
Speaker 1
Was clearly actually stacks.
00:46:38
Speaker 1
You buy this you think this is a wag the dog or and by?
00:46:41
Speaker 2
Check it out.
00:46:41
Speaker 1
The way do.
00:46:42
Speaker 1
The team do the same analysis on the time we entered the Korean War and the time we entered the Vietnam War.
00:46:46
Speaker 1
They were both tide to recessions and and so I don’t know, I don’t know how explicit this this action and behavior.
00:46:53
Speaker 1
I just think there’s some data there was.
00:46:55
Speaker 4
A study that just came out by Tufts University on American military interventions throughout American history, and what they found was that.
00:47:06
Speaker 4
We had the least in the period before the Cold War.
00:47:09
Speaker 4
Then the second most was the during the Cold War.
00:47:12
Speaker 4
But actually the most hyperactive period of American military interventions was post Cold War.
00:47:18
Speaker 4
So since they give a polar moment even though.
00:47:22
Speaker 4
It’s been the safest period for America, right?
00:47:24
Speaker 4
We haven’t done that.
00:47:24
Speaker 1
Explain your problem for people that.
00:47:27
Speaker 4
There’s only one great power in the system before during the Cold War as a bipolar world, whereas basically America versus the Soviet Union.
00:47:34
Speaker 4
And you obviously have the, you know, NATO and the Western alliance with this whole free world and then.
00:47:39
Speaker 1
So feed check and balance, Christina you’d.
00:47:39
Speaker 4
You have the.
00:47:40
Speaker 2
2nd and now.
00:47:41
Speaker 4
Have the Warsaw Pact on on the.
00:47:43
Speaker 1
Other side we have unipolar moving to buy those.
00:47:45
Speaker 4
It was, yeah, we.
00:47:46
Speaker 4
Were unipolar for a couple of decades, but now we’re moving towards a multipolar or at least bipolar with China, yeah.
00:47:53
Speaker 1
Multipolar would be.
00:47:56
Speaker 1
Maybe including India?
00:47:58
Speaker 1
Maybe including India, Brazil, China?
00:48:00
Speaker 4
In the future, looking for Bud.
00:48:02
Speaker 4
But so the irony is that the Safer America has become, the more we’ve gotten militarily involved overseas.
00:48:11
Speaker 4
And part of that is because there’s no great power in the system to.
00:48:13
Speaker 4
Oppose us but.
00:48:15
Speaker 4
It’s also gotten less than a lot of trouble.
00:48:17
Speaker 4
I mean, all of these wars in the Middle East that costs us something like $8 trillion. Another survey costs of war stuff.
00:48:24
Speaker 4
The direct number of deaths from these wars, from the War on Terror is over a million lives lost, $8 billion.
00:48:31
Speaker 4
And that doesn’t even include the excess mortality caused by the destruction of infrastructure, wastewater treatment, you know, fame and all that kind of stuff which could.
00:48:40
Speaker 1
Be as high as five.
00:48:40
Speaker 1
You know the crazy part about that tax dollars?
00:48:44
Speaker 1
We have deployed that in energy independence, solar, nuclear, whatever.
00:48:48
Speaker 1
The whole reason to be.
00:48:49
Speaker 1
In the Middle East was oil and.
00:48:51
Speaker 1
Energy and we could have just deployed that to be energy independent in the West and not had all of this pain.
00:48:57
Speaker 1
But not the whole.
00:48:58
Speaker 1
I mean, not the whole reason, but the reason to be in.
00:49:00
Speaker 1
Well yeah, with the exception of 911 and maybe like tapping.
00:49:02
Speaker 4
We could have done that.
00:49:04
Speaker 4
Without taking over the whole country. And Garland was 28.
00:49:06
Speaker 1
Been done very strategically.
00:49:07
Speaker 4
I mean, actually that was really proven, but.
00:49:09
Speaker 4
But first of all, we did kill.
00:49:12
Speaker 4
We did kill Bin Laden in Pakistan with just a rain by the seals in infiltration, but we didn’t occupy that country.
00:49:20
Speaker 4
And then more recently, we finally got someone hearing in Afghanistan using a drone after we left the country.
00:49:23
Speaker 1
Charles, right.
00:49:26
Speaker 4
So what the hell do we need to be there for 20 years?
00:49:29
Speaker 4
And we could kill these guys using drones and you know.
00:49:33
Speaker 4
The helicopter team, yeah.
00:49:34
Speaker 1
This is where we needed to have an adversary who could check our power would have been healthier.
00:49:39
Speaker 1
So I guess the premise in the top study.
00:49:40
Speaker 4
Try it right, but look I think.
00:49:43
Speaker 4
To Freebase point is.
00:49:45
Speaker 4
Do we become more militaristic when things aren’t going well at home?
00:49:49
Speaker 4
I I don’t know, but it feels to me like just in general over the last 30 years we’ve become hyper militaristic.
00:49:54
Speaker 4
It’s the use of military force is typically the first option, and there’s no to it too quickly and we don’t use diplomacy enough.
00:50:02
Speaker 4
And you can see that in just the number of lives lost, the failure of these.
00:50:05
Speaker 4
Wars and the enormous deficit we’re running.
00:50:09
Speaker 1
And you know, facts I can’t stand.
00:50:11
Speaker 1
Trump the two things he got right no wars, and he was the dictator whisperer.
00:50:16
Speaker 1
That guy knew how to talk to a dictator.
00:50:19
Speaker 5
You know whether.
00:50:20
Speaker 1
It was North Korea, China, Russia.
00:50:23
Speaker 1
He just had a bond with them.
00:50:24
Speaker 1
It was like a superpower for him.
00:50:26
Speaker 1
OK, we have three directions to go.
00:50:26
Speaker 2
Look, there’s a cheese.
00:50:27
Speaker 4
Inside a war is great you.
00:50:29
Speaker 1
Know, I mean, it’s literally his only saving grace, right?
00:50:33
Speaker 1
Gentlemen, we have to talk about.
00:50:34
Speaker 1
What’s going on in Iran?
00:50:36
Speaker 1
We have to talk about the Wall Street editorial boards, Calico, talking to, talk about, talk about newsmen, because there’s a bunch of energy stuff happening in the United States.
00:50:39
Speaker 2
William mid.
00:50:44
Speaker 1
I think is.
00:50:45
Speaker 1
All right. So the Wall Street Journal editorial board, which obviously has a side vote, an op-ed on California grid issues, some of the quotes from the op-ed, California can barely keep the lights on as this climate policies.
00:50:59
Speaker 1
Bite the electric grid. But Gavin Newsom is undaunted. On Friday, he signed no fewer than 40 new climate bills to amp up California’s Green Energy Stock Chalk experiment.
00:51:10
Speaker 1
Even as gasoline prices nationwide have fallen to an average of 368 a gallon, Californians are still paying 5:45 a gallon. California.
00:51:19
Speaker 1
Electric rates are already moving double those in neighboring states.
00:51:22
Speaker 1
This is what happens when politicians try to eliminate fossil fuels with a Molotov cocktail of regulation, taxes, and durable mandates and subsidies.
00:51:31
Speaker 1
The coda to this is dumb.
00:51:35
Speaker 1
I’ll send it to you, Nick, but can you please play the clip as well of Rashida Tlaib trying to skewer Jamie Dimon where he just destroys her lot?
00:51:43
Speaker 1
That’s embarrassing.
00:51:44
Speaker 1
That was embarrassing.
00:51:46
Speaker 1
I mean, we should play it having this.
00:51:48
Speaker 5
She made no sense, Nick.
00:51:50
Speaker 1
Can you play that clip please?
00:51:52
Speaker 3
You have all committed, as you all know, actual system, the emissions from lending and investment activity to line with halfway to net zero in 2015.
00:52:01
Speaker 3
Do you know what the International Energy Energy Agency has said is required to meet local global 2015, but still posits of limiting global temperature rise to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit or 1.5 degrees Celsius? So no new fossil fuel production starting today. That’s so that’s like 0.
00:52:22
Speaker 3
I would like to ask all of you and go down the list because again, you all agree to doing this.
00:52:28
Speaker 3
Please answer with a simple yes or no.
00:52:30
Speaker 3
Does your bank have a policy against funding new oil and gas products, Mr.
00:52:35
Speaker 1
Absolutely not and that would be the go to.
00:52:37
Speaker 1
Hell for America?
00:52:38
Speaker 3
Yeah, that’s fine.
00:52:40
Speaker 3
As I said, you know what?
00:52:41
Speaker 3
Everybody that got money from student loans has a bank account with your bank.
00:52:45
Speaker 3
Should probably take out their account in cold air travel about that not even if they lose their health will meet many.
00:52:52
Speaker 3
Of the folks.
00:52:52
Speaker 3
That are in set extremes that because.
00:52:55
Speaker 3
Of student loan debt.
00:52:57
Speaker 1
My favorite was when she said Thelesis.
00:53:00
Speaker 1
Got it.
00:53:00
Speaker 1
Yeah, I was like, OK.
00:53:04
Speaker 1
It’s just so much theatrics.
00:53:05
Speaker 1
The bushier Tlaib represents the 13th District Congressional District in Michigan.
00:53:12
Speaker 1
The the median age in that district is 35.
00:53:15
Speaker 1
.9 years old.
00:53:18
Speaker 1
The 2020 poverty rate is 28.2% so more than almost one in three people.
00:53:24
Speaker 1
And the 2020 median household income is $37,601.00. So, you know, she represents a group of people.
00:53:34
Speaker 1
That you know, I think at best is lower middle class.
00:53:40
Speaker 1
And the idea that she doesn’t even basically understand what would happen in her district if you actually did not have cheap LNV.
00:53:49
Speaker 1
Again, just kind of speaks to the institutional kind of decay in Washington.
00:53:56
Speaker 1
She is not the person that should be advocating for this.
00:53:58
Speaker 1
Like, you know, it’s districts like this more than any other that don’t have the money to spend on, you know, very expensive.
00:54:07
Speaker 1
Solar installations that cost 30 and $40,000.
00:54:10
Speaker 1
These are the districts.
00:54:11
Speaker 1
That need coal. coal-fired plants, LNG, oil.
00:54:16
Speaker 1
To keep going to sort of minimize the impacts of inflation.
00:54:21
Speaker 1
And so, you know, that was just like a grandstanding moment moving to California.
00:54:24
Speaker 1
Because Jamal, these are important discussions and they’ve become theatrics and.
00:54:31
Speaker 1
This is a chance to educate the public with some charts and data.
00:54:34
Speaker 1
She’d rather so hungry for power that she actually doesn’t care about her constituents, or she’s scientifically and numerically illiterate.
00:54:44
Speaker 1
That’s I think the latter is probably the issue here, and so this is.
00:54:48
Speaker 1
This is what’s such a shame on the on the on.
00:54:50
Speaker 1
The other side.
00:54:51
Speaker 1
You know, at the end of the, at the other end of the coast in California.
00:54:56
Speaker 1
The cost of power generation, just you guys know, has fallen by 90% when you look at renewables and that is because of a good job that the federal government did in introducing subsidies that essentially gave the the right sets of incentives for people to build this infrastructure, but while the cost of generating renewable power.
00:55:16
Speaker 1
Has fallen by 90%. You know, virtually it’s on par as cheaper than any other form of generate.
00:55:22
Speaker 1
Your electricity costs have doubled and are probably going to double again in a state like California. So you know, we’re catering our utility rates by, you know, 7 to 11% every year.
00:55:34
Speaker 1
That is unsustainable in California.
00:55:37
Speaker 1
And what do you have?
00:55:38
Speaker 1
You have, again, a different version of the same flu that Rashida Tlaib has.
00:55:43
Speaker 1
Which is you run forward just kind of virtue signal, and to try to do all of these things, you don’t spend enough time to really understand what’s happening on the ground, and you make it impossible.
00:55:53
Speaker 1
For people to make the decisions to actually be resilient for themselves. At the end of the day, there are 10s of utilities in America, but there are 100 million households and the only path to energy independence is to get every single 100 million household to be resilient, which means they need their own solar panels they need.
00:56:13
Speaker 1
Battery storage.
00:56:15
Speaker 1
They need their own potable water, and all of these systems are now affordable and available, and now the federal government with CRA has created the financial incentives to pull it through.
00:56:26
Speaker 1
So I don’t know, I just think.
00:56:28
Speaker 1
Like this is?
00:56:28
Speaker 1
A hugely stark reminder about how poorly our energy policy has been managed.
00:56:32
Speaker 1
And if you leave it to the hands of the progressive left, they will do things that don’t map to what people on the ground actually need.
00:56:41
Speaker 1
People in California, most people in California cannot pay.
00:56:45
Speaker 1
Utility rates that are going to double every six and seven years.
00:56:49
Speaker 1
Just like people in the congressional 13th District of Michigan cannot afford to pay for solar if Rashida Tlaib labeled again, you know all these banks do not finance LNG, colon and and other forms of hydrocarbons as a bridge fuel for the next switch in Flint.
00:57:06
Speaker 1
These bills independently.
00:57:08
Speaker 1
And you have to think of any bills.
00:57:10
Speaker 1
I mean, who’s reading these things?
00:57:12
Speaker 1
What is in these things?
00:57:13
Speaker 1
And then each one has to.
00:57:14
Speaker 1
Be addressed individually?
00:57:15
Speaker 1
Like one of them could be to help people put solar panels on top of schools.
00:57:19
Speaker 1
And batteries and then that could be a good.
00:57:20
Speaker 1
Bill, but there definitely needs to be add that mechanism at the federal level the IR a pass, an incredible set of incentives built for the producers of these things and for the for the end companies that actually deploy them.
00:57:34
Speaker 1
And so we’ve solved that problem, you know, so I I just think like it just goes to show you a ton of regulation does not actually.
00:57:41
Speaker 1
Add and get to the solution that we want.
00:57:43
Speaker 1
The government will not solve your problems.
00:57:46
Speaker 1
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but they are going to make things more complicated.
00:57:51
Speaker 1
And more expensive and the resilience that you expect out of your utility infrastructure. By the way, we saw just that happened last week. There was a massive fire in a massive battery installation that California installed 182 GW system, MW system.
00:58:06
Speaker 1
Could you imagine if that had actually lit on fire 2 weeks earlier in the middle of this crazy heat wave?
00:58:11
Speaker 1
That we had.
00:58:12
Speaker 1
So even even utility scale renewables are very complicated projects to undertake.
00:58:18
Speaker 1
Sexist I mean, people are dying there because the grid keeps going down and it is much safer and more reliable if every homeowner in the United States took responsibility and and use these incentives to basically become your little.
00:58:33
Speaker 1
Virtual power plant and.
00:58:34
Speaker 1
Technology is there, I mean and people are getting generators or natural gas is back up.
00:58:38
Speaker 1
So we’re going to have to figure out how to take the load off the grid and then resiliency into it.
00:58:42
Speaker 1
I don’t know if you guys saw.
00:58:44
Speaker 1
You know, related. So overall this SG stuff is kind of coming to a head. But Dilbert caught cancelled this week and like 200 newspapers.
00:58:51
Speaker 1
Did you see this?
00:58:53
Speaker 1
How’s that possible?
00:58:54
Speaker 1
Well, because he’s been going after SG in his cartoon and so I’ve.
00:59:01
Speaker 1
I’ve interested in your take on this, but here.
00:59:04
Speaker 1
I don’t know the characters and Alberta Clipper Dilbert, but he says this person who’s in charge says our soil will drop if we open a new factory that add CO2 to the atmosphere. But.
00:59:14
Speaker 1
We can balance that out.
00:59:15
Speaker 1
By adding more diversity to our board.
00:59:17
Speaker 1
And I guess the cat cells, how much C or two do you plan to add and he said 199 binary board members were?
00:59:25
Speaker 1
Showing the ES energy being put together, it makes no sense.
00:59:29
Speaker 1
But that back panel obviously hadn’t cancelled.
00:59:32
Speaker 1
But what do we mean he’s cancelled like he was fired from national newspapers?
00:59:36
Speaker 1
I think one of the 177 newspapers ’cause, they’re all part of chains now, and I guess some of those because of that, because of that cartoon, that cartoon plus it’s like a series going after the social governance part of.
00:59:49
Speaker 1
You know, environmental and pointing out he stated on his podcast that he wants to kill ES3. So.
00:59:55
Speaker 1
So this whole debate is trying to further but I guess but.
00:59:59
Speaker 1
Well, he, I mean the the concept of ESG makes a ton of sense.
01:00:03
Speaker 1
I think the problem is that we implement this.
01:00:04
Speaker 2
It does.
01:00:05
Speaker 1
Yeah, this version 1.0 implementation was financialized by people that have no care about ESG at all. And so all of funders create complexity and consultants and you know, studies that.
01:00:17
Speaker 1
Doesn’t make sense, so the words S&G make right.
01:00:22
Speaker 2
What effects?
01:00:23
Speaker 1
Do they have commas or?
01:00:24
Speaker 1
Periods between them I.
01:00:24
Speaker 1
Guess as well should that’s fine too, but my point is.
01:00:27
Speaker 1
Saying that, you want, you know.
01:00:30
Speaker 1
And you want sustainability and you want better governance.
01:00:33
Speaker 1
All good.
01:00:34
Speaker 1
All of these things are really great ideas.
01:00:36
Speaker 1
It’s just that in this first implementation it got financially perverted and So what you have are folks that are, you know, probably not the best position or should not really have an opinion about ESG opining about things that they never were given.
01:00:50
Speaker 1
The authority to opine on and then as a result, but it’s really created as a cottage industry of consultants that can basically.
01:00:56
Speaker 1
Make you know.
01:00:58
Speaker 1
Hundreds of millions of dollars writing all.
01:01:00
Speaker 1
Of these reports.
01:01:02
Speaker 1
And I think that that’s why this implementation doesn’t work.
01:01:04
Speaker 1
So USD today is broken and I think it’s largely meaningless.
01:01:09
Speaker 1
The concept of what people want is a very good idea.
01:01:12
Speaker 1
We just need a better way to implement.
01:01:13
Speaker 1
I agree with that.
01:01:14
Speaker 1
You can’t connect these.
01:01:15
Speaker 1
So we we’re going to put social and governance with environment, it’s all that’s going to do is.
01:01:19
Speaker 1
Hold back the environment, right sax?
01:01:21
Speaker 1
We’re having all the Fed beef tonight.
01:01:24
Speaker 1
You need to try it.
01:01:25
Speaker 4
I’ll see what?
01:01:26
Speaker 1
I can do.
01:01:26
Speaker 1
No, you have to do it.
01:01:27
Speaker 1
You have to do it once you know both.
01:01:30
Speaker 2
Anymore, but not.
01:01:30
Speaker 1
In fact, that now you cannot imagine what does the beef look like that it’s been only fed green olives, pitted green olives that I.
01:01:37
Speaker 1
Can tell you.
01:01:37
Speaker 1
I can tell you.
01:01:38
Speaker 1
How it looks delicious.
01:01:40
Speaker 2
Is it great?
01:01:41
Speaker 1
It’s the most delicious steak you’ve had in.
01:01:43
Speaker 1
Your life, it’s.
01:01:44
Speaker 1
The most delicious.
01:01:45
Speaker 4
Alright, I’ll come.
01:01:45
Speaker 1
For love.
01:01:46
Speaker 1
It’s incredible snacks.
01:01:48
Speaker 1
You gonna drive me?
01:01:48
Speaker 1
In winter driver check for.
01:01:50
Speaker 4
Your address so I know where.
01:01:51
Speaker 2
To get you oh, I.
01:01:52
Speaker 1
Love it, this is gonna.
01:01:53
Speaker 1
Be great. Game on. Listen.
01:01:54
Speaker 1
To this lineup.
01:01:55
Speaker 1
Me J. Cole.
01:01:59
Speaker 1
Free bird socks, uh.
01:02:03
Speaker 1
To join it.
01:02:04
Speaker 1
Wasting resources Daisy chaining chopped up this.
01:02:07
Speaker 1
No more flips.
01:02:08
Speaker 1
The flips are ridiculous.
01:02:09
Speaker 1
OK, you know what now?
01:02:10
Speaker 1
Now that tax is coming, I’m going to tell him to break out the early white fossils.
01:02:18
Speaker 1
Not, not just.
01:02:19
Speaker 1
Walked to my office.
01:02:20
Speaker 1
She looked at me when I said why trouble, she’s like.
01:02:24
Speaker 1
For best beginner it’s happening everybody.
01:02:27
Speaker 5
Find happening is happening.
01:02:28
Speaker 5
You know what I.
01:02:29
Speaker 1
Saw was tell.
01:02:30
Speaker 1
Me the other day on.
01:02:31
Speaker 1
One of his headset matches where you got that huge fight with that guy.
01:02:34
Speaker 1
Did you guys?
01:02:34
Speaker 1
See that?
01:02:35
Speaker 1
And he called his every match.
01:02:36
Speaker 1
You just.
01:02:36
Speaker 1
Described every matches every other like some heads up thing and the guy had slapped some insane I think was like clouds or something or and healthy had like top pair except.
01:02:46
Speaker 2
Right.
01:02:47
Speaker 3
Yeah, yeah.
01:02:47
Speaker 1
And he sold it on this guy.
01:02:49
Speaker 1
It was incredible to watch the play like the read from Homeos was.
01:02:52
Speaker 1
He is incredible.
01:02:53
Speaker 1
He’s the frequency on that guy.
01:02:54
Speaker 1
He’s pretty great.
01:02:55
Speaker 1
He’s got unbelievable line, but he’s the greatest poker player in the world.
01:02:58
Speaker 2
He really he.
01:02:59
Speaker 1
His Weezer. Unbelievable.
01:03:01
Speaker 1
You think that what percentage of it is, obviously he is an incredible player, but there’s another piece of this that we all see, which is people play into him, they want to be in hand with him.
01:03:11
Speaker 1
Want to bust him?
01:03:13
Speaker 1
So in those tournaments, what do you?
01:03:15
Speaker 1
Think no.
01:03:15
Speaker 1
I think, I think what’s happening is at the highest level there’s like all these people that have.
01:03:20
Speaker 1
Gone in this One Direction.
01:03:21
Speaker 1
And by the way, this is probably a good we could talk about chess in the same way which.
01:03:25
Speaker 1
Is that you?
01:03:25
Speaker 1
Have these solvers right?
01:03:27
Speaker 1
There’s poker solvers.
01:03:28
Speaker 1
Now they’re there, these chests all.
01:03:30
Speaker 1
And the young generation spends all this time training on the solvers so that they know every permutation of every move.
01:03:36
Speaker 1
And what is what people call game theory optimal, or GTO?
01:03:40
Speaker 1
The problem with GTO is that you can actually be very exploitative against somebody that’s actually playing perfectly because the AI is.
01:03:49
Speaker 1
Reflected around what is the rational set of decisions in every spot?
01:03:53
Speaker 1
And so you can set people up to make a lot of really bad mistakes.
01:03:56
Speaker 1
And I think Hellmuth understands that.
01:03:58
Speaker 1
And so because he is one of like the dying breed of people that plays live, he’s able to just be so exploited.
01:04:06
Speaker 1
And these folks that are basically planning from rote memory, right?
01:04:10
Speaker 1
What is the GTO move in every spot?
01:04:13
Speaker 1
They end up making a bunch of mistakes and and feeding chips into him.
01:04:18
Speaker 1
And so I think like it’s a, it’s probably the same as sort.
01:04:21
Speaker 1
Of this Magnus Carlsen he.
01:04:22
Speaker 1
Kind of knew what to expect from people and then it get deviated into this realm where you were like how could you make that decision?
01:04:30
Speaker 1
Probably because, you know, the computer AI is able to calculate, make a slightly losing move.
01:04:36
Speaker 1
Now three moves later you’re gonna actually be ahead.
01:04:39
Speaker 1
It caught him off guard where he was basically like I think.
01:04:41
Speaker 1
This guy is cheating.
01:04:44
Speaker 1
Really, really crazy.
01:04:45
Speaker 1
But I I think like if you, if you.
01:04:46
Speaker 1
Have a bunch of GTO kids.
01:04:49
Speaker 1
Folks that are a little bit older that have been playing in a live situation can be hyper exploitative.
01:04:54
Speaker 1
By the way, this is a good point generally about about this gaming is that computation has played in computers in place.
01:05:00
Speaker 1
Such an incredible role it almost becomes questionable on how much can the human really differentiate anymore in these in these games and enemy systems.
01:05:11
Speaker 1
You guys watch the chess players on YouTube and they’ll have soldiers live and they’ll be getting live scoring as they kind of walk through a match or walk. By the way, Freeburn area. That’s the theme of poker. You have these hot.
01:05:23
Speaker 1
Gems heads up displays.
01:05:25
Speaker 1
And a lot of the poker sites have basically given up.
01:05:27
Speaker 1
They try to spot the.
01:05:29
Speaker 1
Cheating and you can.
01:05:30
Speaker 1
Take it because you have this basically layer that’s helping you.
01:05:33
Speaker 1
And it’s effectively impossible because, well, you know, these things run locally, they’re screenscraping locally, and you just have no idea except when they make moves that are just so unpredictable from a human.
01:05:45
Speaker 1
You could only come from it, from a, from a.
01:05:47
Speaker 1
Yeah, and ultimately old.
01:05:48
Speaker 1
Yeah, all games maybe become obsolete because.
01:05:52
Speaker 1
There is no real way to qualify the performance of 1 human against another when the AI itself or the technology, the computing itself, you know, overshadows human potential and human capability.
01:06:02
Speaker 1
You guys may not know this story, but when I met demons.
01:06:07
Speaker 1
The founder of DeepMind I got introduced by teal like in 2011 or 12 so like a decade ago, and I met him in.
01:06:14
Speaker 1
London I’ll never forget this at the we were having breakfast at the Conrad Hotel and he explained to me deep mind in the context of the game, because at that time how they were building the 1st.
01:06:25
Speaker 1
Versions of the AI.
01:06:28
Speaker 1
With perfecting how to play certain video games and I can’t remember the name of the video game, but it was one of the famous first person shooter games.
01:06:34
Speaker 1
And the whole idea there was like, you know, if you can perfect in the eye that that basically plays GTA and can win the game.
01:06:40
Speaker 1
What you’ve effectively solved for is is like a layer of AI that can then solve other generalized problems.
01:06:46
Speaker 1
I was blown away.
01:06:47
Speaker 1
I thought this was the craziest thing.
01:06:48
Speaker 1
I’ve heard a decade ago.
01:06:51
Speaker 1
So it’s it’s pretty natural that they’ve taken this stuff and adopted it to meet every game.
01:06:55
Speaker 1
It’s a little sad though too, though, don’t you think?
01:06:58
Speaker 1
Yeah, but I mean, maybe there’s a different model of performance for humans that really changes what the gaming is, right?
01:07:05
Speaker 1
Like it makes it.
01:07:07
Speaker
I don’t know what it is.
01:07:08
Speaker 1
I mean, I think that these games themselves completely, you know, the intent of a game which is to measure one kind of decision making abilities gets obsoleted because the software ultimately is a better decision maker than the human.
01:07:22
Speaker 1
So the question then is what is the human going to rise to that creates a new playing field?
01:07:29
Speaker 1
And I think there’s probably elements of creativity and actually using the software to become part of the game that opens up a whole new opportunity for wargaming is, and we’ve been talking a little bit about video games, but you could see artificial constructs in gaming that.
01:07:42
Speaker 1
Arrives from the human interacting with the computer and then creating a new sort.
01:07:46
Speaker 1
Of playing field.
01:07:46
Speaker 1
In gaming, yeah, that’s what do.
01:07:48
Speaker
You what do?
01:07:49
Speaker 1
You think about all this huge big chess player.
01:07:51
Speaker 4
Yeah, I’ve been following it for the last couple of weeks.
01:07:53
Speaker 4
It’s obviously it’s been a big story in the chess world.
01:07:55
Speaker 4
What basically happened is that a couple weeks ago.
01:08:00
Speaker 4
You might Charleston lost that game to Hans.
01:08:04
Speaker 4
Was wrestling Neiman yeah, exactly.
01:08:04
Speaker 1
Nirvana picture.
01:08:07
Speaker 4
And the next day, he pulled out of the tournament.
01:08:10
Speaker 4
This is the same field top and he’s never pulled out of a turn before everyone was speculating is he sick or after or something like that?
01:08:17
Speaker 4
And then he tweeted out a video.
01:08:20
Speaker 4
From some soccer coach thing.
01:08:22
Speaker 4
I can’t talk about it.
01:08:23
Speaker 4
I’m getting trouble.
01:08:24
Speaker 4
Yeah, yeah.
01:08:26
Speaker 4
Clearly, he was in a.
01:08:28
Speaker 4
Passive aggressive way of making an accusation.
01:08:30
Speaker 4
And then he doubled down.
01:08:31
Speaker 4
A few days ago he was in another tournament and he had to play.
01:08:36
Speaker 4
Hans, thank you for getting this guys name.
01:08:40
Speaker 4
Lehman. Yeah.
01:08:41
Speaker 4
He has a player, but he resigned on move too.
01:08:43
Speaker 4
So basically he doubled down in his accusation, and he won’t specifically say what leads him to believe that this guy is cheating, but he thinks he is.
01:08:53
Speaker 4
He’s a he’s a young player, he’s something like 18 and he had a pretty meteoric rise in the chess world.
01:09:01
Speaker 4
I think his ratings gone up a couple 100 points over the last two years. It’s the fastest rise in chess rating that anyone’s ever had before.
01:09:10
Speaker 4
Or it’s been the case that players have been young players especially have risen quickly.
01:09:16
Speaker 4
But this is it’s a pretty it’s it’s a bigger flies that does happen well, that’s the thing.
01:09:20
Speaker 1
How is he cheating?
01:09:22
Speaker 4
So the.
01:09:23
Speaker 4
The issue is that.
01:09:26
Speaker 4
It’s easy to cheat in online chess, but in over the board you would either need to have a device, or to be signaled by somebody in the crowd you’d need human assistance or the existence of a device.
01:09:39
Speaker 4
It almost be like, you know in casino or something where they’re using the contraction yeah on the guy’s leg to signal, you know, to.
01:09:46
Speaker 4
Information to him.
01:09:47
Speaker 4
So nobody really knows how he would have done it, and of course he wasn’t.
01:09:53
Speaker 4
Caught doing it.
01:09:54
Speaker 4
Though he could never prove that he wasn’t.
01:09:57
Speaker 4
So there’s this a real question here.
01:09:58
Speaker 1
But they did make some changes after after Magnus Carlsen design, they put the seed on a 15 minute delay.
01:10:07
Speaker 1
You know, I think like at some point you’re going to have to start rounding people and having them go through a metal detect.
01:10:13
Speaker 4
Yeah, they got to toughen up all of the anti cheating standards.
01:10:17
Speaker 1
One of the grandmasters was like, we should play naked.
01:10:23
Speaker 4
Yeah, there was an online.
01:10:24
Speaker 4
Site that basically offered to pay Neiman a lot of money to play.
01:10:27
Speaker 4
Basically make it to prove that he could, you know, really duty with what he’s been doing.
01:10:33
Speaker 4
The theory on why?
01:10:35
Speaker 4
He’s not cheating, and the rise is justified is that in theory, this is.
01:10:41
Speaker 4
The argument is that he’s grown up learning from all these neural Nets, these not just chess engines.
01:10:48
Speaker 4
The first generation of chess engines were like Stockfish, they were just computational machines that were programmed.
01:10:48
Speaker 2
Yeah, sure.
01:10:55
Speaker 4
By humans with thousands of rules on how to play chess, and then they could just crunch the lines better than human cut.
01:11:01
Speaker 4
More recently, thanks to Deep Mind, it’s a whole different.
01:11:04
Speaker 4
Type of machine is basically these neural networks where all their programmed risks are the rules of chess and then they it plays thousands of games they or millions of games against itself and it learns your best way to play chess and the the neural Nets play in a whole different way than the.
01:11:23
Speaker 4
Then, softer than the pure engines, the engine has played like a human that’s able to calculate really well, whereas the neural net do things like there’s a button, yeah.
01:11:32
Speaker 1
This is.
01:11:33
Speaker 1
I mean, there’s sacrifices.
01:11:34
Speaker 1
For the human would never.
01:11:35
Speaker 4
Make yeah, they’ll.
01:11:36
Speaker 4
Make they’ll make sacrifices for just repeat activity.
01:11:40
Speaker 4
You know, normally when a human makes a sacrifice they they’ll recapture material within a few moves, whereas deep mind will sacrifice a pawn.
01:11:49
Speaker 4
And you know just for the positional advantage over.
01:11:51
Speaker 4
The pieces that the.
01:11:52
Speaker 1
Increase in which doesn’t fill.
01:11:54
Speaker 1
Up for many.
01:11:54
Speaker 4
Many moves right, and it actually is exactly as.
01:11:57
Speaker 1
The ability to.
01:11:58
Speaker 1
Model like 12 moves out is is.
01:12:00
Speaker 1
But that is, that’s where I think people thought that Magnus picked up on something because it’s like those sorts of moves are rare in the absence of some layer of intervention because typically it’s like, you know, in fact, you know.
01:12:11
Speaker 1
This much better than I but.
01:12:12
Speaker 1
Like, you know, the opening and the closing of all of these chess matches is so tightly regulated there’s not a lot of creativity.
01:12:18
Speaker 1
It’s sort of in the mid game that you have these slight positional advantages and disadvantages and.
01:12:24
Speaker 1
So I think.
01:12:25
Speaker 1
It was amplified that one of these positional sacrifices made no sense in the context of that game unless you had the ability to, you know, think really conclusively about.
01:12:34
Speaker 1
Pics having moves from now, by the way, it’s the same.
01:12:36
Speaker 1
It’s the same thing in poker, so there’s a thing if you guys want to download it.
01:12:39
Speaker 1
It’s called, I think it’s called poker snowing.
01:12:41
Speaker 1
It was like the first layer of a pretty basic AI, but it’s gotten better and better.
01:12:46
Speaker 1
And really, what it allows you to do is in.
01:12:48
Speaker 1
Every situation will.
01:12:49
Speaker 1
Spot whether it’s heads up all the way.
01:12:51
Speaker 1
To A6 handed ring game.
01:12:53
Speaker 1
You could really understand.
01:12:55
Speaker 1
You know what to do now.
01:12:57
Speaker 1
Poker is meaningfully more complicated than chess, as it turns out.
01:13:01
Speaker 1
Because again you.
01:13:01
Speaker 1
Have you’re not playing against one player, you’re playing against some funky number of players.
01:13:06
Speaker 1
You know, we don’t know when each of them is going to step into a pot or spit on guitar, and then there’s all of those elements, so it’s a little bit more complicated to build a true kind.
01:13:14
Speaker 1
Of like neural net around it.
01:13:16
Speaker 1
But even still, you can kind of get a sense of what you should be doing in different spots and what you see is that.
01:13:23
Speaker 1
There is literally like trillions of actions and so it really is impossible for a human being mean to really memorize in every single situation.
01:13:33
Speaker 1
But the crew you know probabilistically, probabilistically weighted GTO optimized move is going.
01:13:38
Speaker 1
To be and.
01:13:39
Speaker 1
So This is why I think a lot of people get slayed by magnets with.
01:13:43
Speaker 1
How could you have known this unless they were?
01:13:46
Speaker 1
Aided by something.
01:13:47
Speaker 1
If you have not not discounted its.
01:13:49
Speaker 1
It’s it was.
01:13:50
Speaker 1
It’s profound is that mastery of the game may not be achievable by a human, but mastering of any one of these games may actually be achievable by neural Nets.
01:13:59
Speaker 1
And I think that’s what’s really frustrating to Magnus and two other top tier players in the world that are the best humans at a particular game if they’re now realizing.
01:14:09
Speaker 1
You know that they really aren’t the true masters, that the true masters are the neural Nets and more than just the guy cheating which.
01:14:16
Speaker 1
May feel like.
01:14:16
Speaker 1
Bad sportsmanship or whatever.
01:14:18
Speaker 1
Fundamentally, Wendigo, being built entirely on one’s mastery of the game and being the best at the game, is fundamentally challenged because a computer is better at the game than you. It’s a really profound.
01:14:30
Speaker 1
Moments are human.
01:14:30
Speaker 2
It that shouldn’t be.
01:14:31
Speaker 2
I think that that’s, that’s.
01:14:32
Speaker 4
A long time.
01:14:33
Speaker 4
Ago. Yeah, I mean, I.
01:14:34
Speaker 4
Know that just.
01:14:34
Speaker 1
Like he’s experiencing it, right?
01:14:34
Speaker 4
Worked very well.
01:14:35
Speaker 2
It was well, no.
01:14:36
Speaker
It was so it was way.
01:14:38
Speaker 4
Back when no one passed, balls played deep blue, which is the IBM.
01:14:41
Speaker 2
Deep blue.
01:14:42
Speaker 1
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
01:14:43
Speaker
That was the 1st.
01:14:43
Speaker 1
It wasn’t even a sophisticated.
01:14:45
Speaker 1
Neural net that was.
01:14:46
Speaker 1
Just a although Brutalistic remodeled.
01:14:48
Speaker 1
Yeah, we determine this remodeled system.
01:14:50
Speaker 4
There’s like prophesised number Cruncher, and that was when computer intelligence and chest tip to be able to beat the world champion.
01:14:59
Speaker 4
Since then, there’s no.
01:14:59
Speaker 4
Looking back, I think every human who plays in the chess world understands that computers are better and.
01:15:06
Speaker 4
There’s no way.
01:15:07
Speaker 4
For a human to be better than.
01:15:08
Speaker 4
That computer.
01:15:09
Speaker 4
So I’m certainly not a neural net.
01:15:12
Speaker 4
I mean, Magnus certainly knows that.
01:15:13
Speaker 4
I don’t think anyone bothered by that.
01:15:14
Speaker 4
I think that everyone understands that humans play in a.
01:15:17
Speaker 4
Certain way and.
01:15:18
Speaker 4
Their goal is to be the best human.
01:15:21
Speaker 4
I think the concern is just obviously if a human it gets aided during a game by computers.
01:15:27
Speaker 4
But the way that stuff works now, the preparation is all about working with computers.
01:15:33
Speaker 4
These top players spend huge amounts of time researching openings and looking for novel Tees in openings.
01:15:40
Speaker 4
Using computers to help them do their research.
01:15:43
Speaker 4
So, you know, working with computers has now become an integral part of the game.
01:15:47
Speaker 4
It’s kind of like.
01:15:48
Speaker 4
You know, in many sports where the technology has enabled the athlete to get better, you know, and and and it’s really technology becomes the Q vector of competition.
01:15:57
Speaker 1
This actually happens in the NBA.
01:15:59
Speaker 1
This happened.
01:16:00
Speaker 1
In the NBA?
01:16:00
Speaker 1
Where there’s a special technology for three-point shooting in your form, etc. And the Knicks actually. And a couple of other teams.
01:16:08
Speaker 1
Implemented it a couple of years ago and you saw the entire team became better at three-point shooting. So people who were, you know, 200 percent, 300%, you know, moved up 1020% each. But this kid is clearly cheating because.
01:16:20
Speaker 2
He’s cheated in.
01:16:21
Speaker 1
The past and people who cheat in the past sheet in the future is my basic belief.
01:16:24
Speaker 1
So this guy, I mean.
01:16:25
Speaker 1
Him publicly admitted that he used electronic devices to cheat.
01:16:28
Speaker 1
When he was.
01:16:28
Speaker 1
With the kid on online games when I.
01:16:30
Speaker 1
Was 12 to 16 years old.
01:16:31
Speaker 1
So then the question is, like Nova, Jason is worse. Another thing figured then chess.com came out and said actually the cheating was more rampant than just those two incidents.
01:16:40
Speaker 1
Their algorithm determined it, yeah.
01:16:42
Speaker 4
So yeah, they apply this, they imply that.
01:16:42
Speaker 3
He’s definitely cheating.
01:16:43
Speaker 1
So why are people playing with him?
01:16:45
Speaker 4
Well, because he said that, he said that was those games were not for money and he was horrible, degrading fast and he was expanding or whatever.
01:16:46
Speaker 1
It’s a live dance, yeah.
01:16:55
Speaker 2
It’s like.
01:16:55
Speaker 1
The poker guys? Who?
01:16:56
Speaker 1
Cheat you if you’re.
01:16:57
Speaker 1
A poker guy.
01:16:58
Speaker 1
You cheated before, you never play with those players again, but they’re cheaters, so obviously.
01:17:01
Speaker 2
But the issue, well, the.
01:17:01
Speaker 1
They can just choose.
01:17:03
Speaker 4
Issue here is that this.
01:17:04
Speaker 4
Wasn’t over the board tournament where the one that Magnus pulled out of in order to protest.
01:17:10
Speaker 4
So the question is how could he have been cheating?
01:17:13
Speaker 1
Right.
01:17:14
Speaker 4
Now, I think what what adds to the complexity of it is a yes to remember that when you’re dealing with a player, look, if it was us playing Magnus, we teach you on every single move. But if you’re a 26 or 2700 player?
01:17:27
Speaker 4
And, you know, not just the 2860 or something higher delaying the better interests.
01:17:31
Speaker 4
Called the low.
01:17:33
Speaker 4
But any event?
01:17:33
Speaker 4
If you’re like a 2627.
01:17:35
Speaker 4
100 player like Neiman you only need.
01:17:38
Speaker 4
Help with a few moves in.
01:17:40
Speaker 4
In other words, if you could get a tip at a critical moment of the game, that might be all you need to put you over the top.
01:17:47
Speaker 4
You wouldn’t need to, in other words, to beat Magnus, you wouldn’t need to cheat on every move.
01:17:51
Speaker 4
You could.
01:17:51
Speaker 4
If you just cheat on.
01:17:52
Speaker 4
Two or three?
01:17:53
Speaker 4
Moves at the right time that could put.
01:17:53
Speaker 2
Right.
01:17:55
Speaker 4
You over the top.
01:17:56
Speaker 1
So something could vibrate on your leg four times.
01:18:01
Speaker 1
And then I said I’m.
01:18:01
Speaker 1
Going to tell you which piece to move.
01:18:03
Speaker 1
That’s what they were saying, J.
01:18:04
Speaker 1
Cole like.
01:18:04
Speaker 1
Had like a vibrator in his leg.
01:18:07
Speaker 1
Where was the vibrator?
01:18:09
Speaker 1
There’s a meme that became like a whole thing where it was.
01:18:11
Speaker 1
Like he had something in his **** or something.
01:18:15
Speaker 3
Computer and e-mail test computers, but you’re.
01:18:17
Speaker 4
Saying OK, no, that’s not real.
01:18:19
Speaker 4
Somebody speculating on?
01:18:19
Speaker 1
It’s not real, but someone made it.
01:18:20
Speaker 4
Reddit. Yeah. And then.
01:18:21
Speaker 4
It became Reddit post saying.
01:18:23
Speaker 4
That he was being communicated with through.
01:18:26
Speaker 4
Vibrating ANEL beads, and then that went viral.
01:18:29
Speaker 4
You tweeted it, although I think he deleted it.
01:18:31
Speaker 4
Like it’s absurd, but.
01:18:34
Speaker 4
The point is, there is a question of.
01:18:36
Speaker 4
How would he?
01:18:36
Speaker 4
Have done it if he did it.
01:18:38
Speaker 4
And there have been cases before, though, of people getting caught.
01:18:40
Speaker 1
Thank you.
01:18:40
Speaker 1
Thank you metal detect card.
01:18:42
Speaker 4
Yeah, people getting caught.
01:18:43
Speaker 4
Going in the bathroom and then, you know, checking.
01:18:45
Speaker 4
Their phones, there’s a, there’s a.
01:18:46
Speaker 1
Grand Bulgarian grandmaster.
01:18:47
Speaker 1
He got caught.
01:18:48
Speaker 1
From checking his phone and metal detectors.
01:18:51
Speaker 1
On the way in.
01:18:52
Speaker 1
And they have RF detectors in the room, right?
01:18:54
Speaker 1
So they looked for any sort of communication, I think.
01:18:56
Speaker 1
Remember going into this event?
01:18:59
Speaker 1
Just to have nobody watching over Hidden Abby.
01:19:02
Speaker 3
The half hour delay.
01:19:03
Speaker 2
The central stop.
01:19:04
Speaker 4
Added a 15 minute delay after these accusations, so yeah.
01:19:09
Speaker 4
There’s gonna be there’s gonna be more precautions, basically, but we still haven’t heard from Magnus what made him think that there was foul play here in sticker gametes, and very reluctant says he won’t say anything.
01:19:18
Speaker 1
Thank you.
01:19:20
Speaker 4
It’s it’s sort of passive aggressive now.
01:19:22
Speaker 4
The private is that Magnus Carlsen has been been more in player in chess for over a decade and he’s a very.
01:19:29
Speaker 4
Classy player.
01:19:30
Speaker 4
I mean, I, you know everyone.
01:19:32
Speaker 4
Never heard a word said about him, but you know, it was now he could be cocky, he could definitely be cocky, but he’s a very classy player, so I just don’t see him doing something like this lightly.
01:19:43
Speaker 4
So that’s what’s so.
01:19:44
Speaker 4
So hard to understand about it.
01:19:47
Speaker 4
Dramatic is yet really hard to understand.
01:19:49
Speaker 4
How Nemo could have cheated, though.
01:19:51
Speaker 4
Also Magnus.
01:19:52
Speaker 4
Doesn’t seem like.
01:19:53
Speaker 4
The kind of player to just make a wild, impulsive allegation.
01:19:57
Speaker 4
So This is why the chess world has been really roiled by this.
01:20:00
Speaker 1
But is there like a any kind of equivalent of like PD scandal here like?
01:20:04
Speaker 1
People taking Adderall or PROVIGIL or any other kind of nootropics to get an edge.
01:20:11
Speaker 4
No thanks.
01:20:12
Speaker 1
There’s a good documentary, I think it was on Vice, on how a lot of the top chess players actually get ready for matches, and they’re incredibly diligent about their sleep, their workout routine, alcohol.
01:20:12
Speaker 4
This or not?
01:20:23
Speaker 1
They do take supplements.
01:20:25
Speaker 1
I forgot who made the documentary.
01:20:26
Speaker 1
There’s actually incredibly intense how physical these people are in.
01:20:30
Speaker 4
So like when you hear my classical test comparing like over 2000 calories or something like that, like the amount of calories I get burned by using your brain so intensely.
01:20:40
Speaker 1
Parallel is rampant in the poker community, especially in tournaments.
01:20:44
Speaker 1
So when?
01:20:44
Speaker 1
You play the.
01:20:45
Speaker 1
The higher tournaments and I played them and I just kind of stepping and and I felt very underpowered relative to the to the kids I was playing.
01:20:53
Speaker 1
With ’cause they?
01:20:54
Speaker 1
Were all unnatural?
01:20:55
Speaker 1
Well, there each of 12 hours left 10 hour sessions.
01:20:57
Speaker 1
Yeah, it’s.
01:20:58
Speaker 1
I think it’s it’s exhausting.
01:21:00
Speaker 1
It’s really, really physically exhausting to plus, that’s why I stopped playing tournaments about a decade ago.
01:21:04
Speaker 1
I just couldn’t sit there for that.
01:21:06
Speaker 1
Long it did justify the times back on there too.
01:21:08
Speaker 1
It’s like it’s just so.
01:21:09
Speaker 1
It’s just so physically and emotionally demanding to be able to play that well and make no mistakes over 10 hours.
01:21:17
Speaker 1
And so, you know, the only solution that all these kids would turn to was was at all.
01:21:22
Speaker 1
And I was like, this is not relative for me.
01:21:24
Speaker 1
So I stopped, I stopped playing in tournaments and we just did that because I I thought that I could have a real chance of.
01:21:28
Speaker 1
Actually doing really well in.
01:21:30
Speaker 1
Some of these things and I just gave up.
01:21:31
Speaker 1
By the way, the other thing I wanted to mention is there’s there’s some like cheating in all these other kinds of sports and it always gets exposed like.
01:21:37
Speaker 1
Whether it’s, you know, the Tour de France, it turned out that everybody was using PD or, you know, the Russian Olympic team, everybody was using PD, women wearing patriots stealing signals.
01:21:47
Speaker 1
Yeah, alright, listen, let’s just talk about the Iran protests for a moment.
01:21:50
Speaker 1
I Iran has shut off Internet access, Internet access and process of Tehran.
01:21:56
Speaker 1
And blocked access to Instagram and WhatsApp to try to stop these protests. The protests started after the death of a 22 year old Kurdish woman rolling police custody.
01:22:06
Speaker 1
Masa Amini was detained on September 16 for allegedly wearing hijab, headscarf in an improper way.
01:22:14
Speaker 1
She later died in police custody.
01:22:18
Speaker 1
And activists are saying she suffered a fatal wound to her head.
01:22:23
Speaker 1
And now you have 15 cities with very large crowds.
01:22:27
Speaker 1
Women are burning their hijabs, and it seems to be escalating at a pretty fast pace.
01:22:34
Speaker 1
Iranian authorities are denying that they had any.
01:22:38
Speaker 1
Part in her death.
01:22:41
Speaker 1
That’s almost total, yeah.
01:22:44
Speaker 4
I wish them well.
01:22:45
Speaker 1
If you look at the demographics of Iran, it’s pretty amazing how many young people there are here.
01:22:51
Speaker 1
This feels like a country that can turn over.
01:22:53
Speaker 4
That’d be great.
01:22:53
Speaker 4
And you wonder why it has a chance of working?
01:22:56
Speaker 4
Because we’re not.
01:22:56
Speaker 4
The ones behind it.
01:22:58
Speaker 1
I mean, absolutely, yeah.
01:22:59
Speaker 1
We we cannot.
01:23:02
Speaker 1
When the revolution revolution has to be done.
01:23:05
Speaker 1
But to the women and young people around protesting, you have our support and we’re rooting for you.
01:23:11
Speaker 1
And don’t let the ** grind you down.
01:23:14
Speaker 1
Alright, everybody for.
01:23:18
Speaker 1
David got her name.
01:23:21
Speaker 1
No, I’m just.
01:23:22
Speaker 1
I was going to try to come up with a new name for rage Berg, like Freebirds or dollars Rage Point.
01:23:28
Speaker 1
Rage Burger Rajper, Rage burger, Plainview.
01:23:33
Speaker 1
The David, the.
01:23:35
Speaker 1
Love and the host with the most truthful hoppity. I’m the world’s greatest moderator. I’m so excited to see all three of you. Honesty, big socks.
01:23:44
Speaker 1
Don’t speak.
01:23:45
Speaker 1
I love you guys.
01:23:45
Speaker 1
I really want it.
01:23:45
Speaker 3
Don’t play sax. That’s all.
01:23:46
Speaker 1
Facts don’t crawl up there.
01:23:47
Speaker 1
Before we go, we could roll them.
01:23:48
Speaker
Scroll down.
01:23:48
Speaker 1
Together, let’s roll, baby, big games will tell you.
01:23:51
Speaker 1
Decided to being loving pesticide.
01:23:55
Speaker 4
Let your winters lie.
01:23:58
Speaker 1
Rain Man gave us back.
01:24:03
Speaker 4
We open sources to the fans and they’ve just gone crazy.
01:24:06
Speaker 4
With them.
01:24:16
Speaker 2
Second, could all just get a?
01:24:26
Speaker 1
Room and just have one big.
01:24:28
Speaker 1
Huge or because they’re also useful.
01:24:29
Speaker 1
Like there’s like sexual tension, but they.
01:24:31
Speaker 1
Just need to release their house.
01:24:35
Speaker 5
2nd we need to get.
01:24:39
Speaker 1
Merchants are back